Morning News

Good morning...

Well, what a very interesting end to a very interesting month!

We got a 55% strike rate for our top rated horse yesterday and...

I've got to be honest and say that I really can't comment on February's results.

We've had some really great days and then, some days that have been really bad.

And I just can't predict how or when we'll have the one or the other.

At least we ended up with a great month.

It was the best February that we've had since we started 3 years ago.

As part of the work that I'm doing on R5 (our new ratings algorithm) I'm trying to work out how much the "self learning" aspect of the ratings comes into play.

So far, I'm still confused - I have got a horrible feeling that I've created a monster here!

We got 2 out of 2 for our Place Betting Strategy yesterday; now, I know that we lost money on the month but we've got better months to come.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 55%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 55%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 55% from all 20 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 41.42 units returned to 57 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -27.33%

Top Rated Horse - There were 11 winners from the top rated horses from 20 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 28.42 units returned to 20 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 42.1%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 2 winners from the second rated horses from 19 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 13 units returned to 19 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -31.58%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 0 winners from the third rated horses from 18 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 0 units returned to 18 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -100%

Forecasts

There were 4 forecasts yesterday.

Ayr 14:10:00 - The CSF paid £7.70

Plumpton 14:30:00 - The CSF paid £4.33

Wolverhampton (AW) 15:25:00 - The CSF paid £10.48

Plumpton 16:40:00 - The CSF paid £4.46

Reverse Forecasts

There were 0 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Ayr 14:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £15.40

Plumpton 14:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £17.60

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Winners

From the 20 rated races there were 13 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 1 of those was at a nice price.

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Plumpton 14:00:00 - Tara Bridge - 3rd - Betfair paid 2.1 for the place
Ayr 14:10:00 - Craiganboy - 2nd - Betfair paid 2.45 for the place

We made a profit of 2.4225 points on the day and have made a loss of 2.982 points for February.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 3.28491 points on the day and have made a loss of 13.243035 points for February.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a profit of 3.28491 points for the day and we have made a loss of 11.6626 points for February.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSFeb.xls

Something to make you laugh

Taxi Driver

The passenger tapped the cab driver on the shoulder to ask him something.

The driver screamed, lost control of the car, nearly hit a bus, went up on the sidewalk, and stopped centimetres from a shop window.

For a second everything went quiet in the cab, then the driver said, "Look mister, don't ever do that again. You scared the daylights out of me!"

The passenger apologized and said he didn't realize that a little tap could scare him so much.

The driver replied, "You're right. I'm sorry, it's not really your fault. Today is my first day as a cab driver. I've been driving a hearse for the last 25 years."

Today

Today's early test ratings show 19 rated races from three meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards