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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

We seemed to be a bit all over the place yesterday.

Although I was planning to take the day off...

I ended up watching the results coming in as I am testing a new strategy.

And to my eyes, none (or very few) of the races made sense to me.

Apart, that is, from the AW races; they sort of followed the profile that the ratings should be able to exploit.

So, I can only conclude that, for some reason, the NH races were either very strange yesterday or that there was an external influence (like the weather) which affected the results.

So, with that in mind, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 22.58%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 24.24%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 21.21% from all 33 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 64.64 units returned to 90 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -28.18%

Top Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the top rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 25.66 units returned to 31 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -17.23%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the second rated horses from 32 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 14.48 units returned to 32 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -54.75%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 27 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 24.5 units returned to 27 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -9.26%

Forecasts

There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Dundalk (AW) 19:30:00 - The CSF paid £3.15

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Doncaster 17:25:00 - The CSF paid £2.14

Wolverhampton (AW) 19:45:00 - The CSF paid £8.13

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Dundalk (AW) 19:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £3.10

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Newbury 16:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £206.32

Dundalk (AW) 18:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £39.68

Winners

From the 33 rated races there were 16 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 2 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Newbury 15:25 Ut Majeur Aulmes (2) 7.00 7.29
Wolverhampton (AW) 19:15 Ferryview Place (8) 12.00 15.83

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = AW Handicap Claimers - Season Proper - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Claimer and where the Race is a Handicap Race and the Month is January or the Month is February or the Month is March or the Month is April or the Month is October or the Month is November or the Month is December

Selection = Back to ISP - Lingfield (AW) - 15:05:00 - Barren Brook (6)

Races (over last year): 12 Wins: 6 Strike Rate: 50.00% ROI: 166.50% AV SP: 3.33

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £79.80

Barren Brook came fourth.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Newbury 14:50:00 - Midnight Cowboy - Unplaced

We made a loss of 1 point on the day and have made a profit of 6.483 points for March.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 1.356 points on the day and have made a profit of 3.717474 points for March.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) there was no bet yesterday and we have made a profit of 7.107474 points for March.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSMar.xls

Something to make you laugh

Socrates

One day the great philosopher came upon an acquaintance who ran up to him excitedly and said, "Socrates, do you know what I just heard about one of your students?"

"Wait a moment," Socrates replied. "Before you tell me I'd like you to pass a little test. It's called the Test of Three."

"Three?"

"That's right," Socrates continued. "Before you talk to me about my student let's take a moment to test what you're going to say. The first test is Truth. Have you made absolutely sure that what you are about to tell me is true?"

"Oh no," the man said, "actually I just heard about it."

"All right," said Socrates. "So you don't really know if it's true or not. Now let's try the second test, the test of Goodness. Is what you are about to tell me about my student something good?"

"No, on the contrary..."

"So," Socrates interrupted, "you want to tell me something bad about him even though you're not certain it's true?"

The man shrugged, a little embarrassed.

Socrates continued. "You may still pass though, because there is a third test - the filter of Usefulness. Is what you want to tell me
about my student going to be useful to me?"

"Well it....no, not really..."

"Well," concluded Socrates, "if what you want to tell me is neither True nor Good nor even Useful, why tell it to me at all?"

The man was defeated and ashamed. This is the reason Socrates was a great philosopher and held in such high esteem.

It also explains why he never found out that Plato was having an affair with his wife.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 36 rated races from six meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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