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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Another strong day with the 9th thirty plus percent day so far this month.

And a rather spectacular day with the forecasts and trifectas.

If you had blindly done the forecast in every race you would have had £171.66 returned to £34 staked.

If you had blindly done the trifecta in every race you would have had £406.10 returned to £34 staked.

I wish I knew how to predict which races (and on which days) it would be worth putting my shilling on all the forecasts or trifectas.

Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 31.25%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 35.29%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.41% from all 34 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 69.7 units returned to 99 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -29.6%

Top Rated Horse - There were 10 winners from the top rated horses from 32 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 27.71 units returned to 32 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -13.41%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the second rated horses from 34 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 19.99 units returned to 34 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -41.21%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 22 units returned to 33 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -33.33%

Forecasts

There were 4 forecasts yesterday.

Haydock 14:20:00 - The CSF paid £2.22

Haydock 14:55:00 - The CSF paid £4.43

Warwick 16:50:00 - The CSF paid £81.08

Kempton (AW) 19:15:00 - The CSF paid £83.93

Reverse Forecasts

There were 4 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Southwell (AW) 14:00:00 - The CSF paid £2.05

Dundalk (AW) 19:30:00 - The CSF paid £34.42

Dundalk (AW) 20:00:00 - The CSF paid £1.81

Dundalk (AW) 21:00:00 - The CSF paid £8.14

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 trifecta yesterday.

Warwick 16:50:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £406.10

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 5 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Southwell (AW) 14:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £2.30

Southwell (AW) 15:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £42.20

Haydock 16:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £57.20

Dundalk (AW) 19:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £29.20

Dundalk (AW) 19:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £141.70

Winners

From the 33 rated races there were 21 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 3 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Warwick 16:50 Mission Complete (8) 5.50 6.71
Dundalk (AW) 18:00 Sir Raston (8) 6.00 6.60
Dundalk (AW) 20:30 Strait Of Zanzibar (3) 10.00 13.50

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = AW Handicap Claimers - Season Proper - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Claimer and where the Race is a Handicap Race and the Month is January or the Month is February or the Month is March or the Month is April or the Month is October or the Month is November or the Month is December

Selection = Back to ISP - Southwell (AW) - 14:00:00 - Edgar (1)

Races (over last year): 12 Wins: 6 Strike Rate: 50.00% ROI: 147.50% AV SP: 2.95

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £57.00

Edgar came second.

Chancers Bet = AW High RC2 Handicaps - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Handicap Race and the Race\'s RC2 is greater than 60% and Runners was equal to or less than 8

Selection = Back to ISP - Southwell (AW) - 14:00:00 - Edgar (1)

Races (over last year): 18 Wins: 7 Strike Rate: 38.89% ROI: 113.56AV SP: 2.92

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £24.40

Edgar came second.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Warwick 14:10:00 - Neumond - Unplaced
Warwick 14:40:00 - Crickle Wood - 2nd - Betfair paid 1.77 for the place.

We made a loss of 0.2685 points on the day and have made a loss of 3.386 points for March.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 0.182043 points on the day and have made a loss of 6.821358 points for March.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 0.678 points yesterday and we have made a loss of 0.537315 points for March.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSMar.xls

Something to make you laugh

The Devil

A priest was preparing a man for his long journey into the night.

Whispering firmly, the priest said, "Denounce the devil! Let him know how little you think of his evil."

The dying man said nothing.

The priest repeated his order. Still the dying man said nothing.

The priest asked, "Why do you refuse to denounce the devil and his evil?"

The dying man said, "Until I know where I'm heading, I don't think I ought to aggravate anybody."

Today

Today's early test ratings show 27 rated races from four meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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