Morning News

Good morning...

Right...

So on the face of it, not such a great day for Focus Ratings yesterday but,

Assuming that Focus Ratings isn't a tipping service,

Let look, for a change, at our second rated horses.

Now, if I can mathematically determine the best horse in a race (our top rated horse) then, it is only logical that the bookmakers and the other market movers can also do the same.

Thus, that horse may well be over invested.

And that removes the profit advantage.

So, instead, let's look at the second rated horse.

One of the members is a full time pro gambler and, a while back, he said... "Keith, look at your second rated horse - you're missing out there!"

I've done that and, you know, he might just be right.

It's not all about strike rate - that's just vanity - it's the profit that counts.

Let's look at the second rated horse yesterday...

The basic idea is to back the low priced horses to win (if they are at a forecast price of up to 5.5) and then back the other second rated horses to place but...

Only on the first page of the ratings.

Yesterday we got these results...

First Race:

Chepstow - 14:05 - our 2nd rated horse had a forecast price of 5.5 so it was a win bet - it won at a BSP of 2.97.

Second race:

Wolves 14:15 - our 2nd rated horse had a forecast price of 5.5 so it was a win bet - it won at a BSP of 5.99.

Third race:

Thules 14:20 - our 2nd rated horse had a forecast price of 21.00 so it was a place bet - it came 2nd at 2.15.

Fourth race:

Ludlow 14:30 - our 2nd rated horse had a forecast price of 3.0 so it was a win bet - it came 3rd - no money.

Fifth race:

Chepstow 14:40 - our 2nd rated horse had a forecast price of 13.00 so it was a place bet - it came 3rd at 2.38.

Sixth race:

Wolves 14:50 - our 2nd rated horse had a forecast price of 6.00 so it was a place bet - it came 2nd at 2.66.

Seventh race:

Thules 14:55 - our 2nd rated horse had a forecast price of 4.5 so it was win bet - it came 3rd - no money.

Overall, using this simple system, we had 15.34 points returned (assuming a 5% Betfair commission) to 7 points staked.

Now, I'm sure that there are some filters that would improve the strike rate and profitability but this does seem quite interesting to me.

If any of you want a spreadsheet that shows the performance of the 2nd rated horse over the last 2 years so that you can work out a strategy for yourselves then...

I'll sort that out for you.

I have a sneaky feeling that this might be a great way to utilise the power of the ratings to go against the market and still make a profit.

However, I do have to say that I'm up to my t*ts working on R5 and so I'm going to have to invent a 25 hour day before I can put some effort into this but...

If any of you want to put the work in; I'll provide the resources - just ask.

I'll be taking another look at this once I've broken the back of R5 and will keep reviewing this on a daily basis. Some of the obvious filters are the number of runners and race types. I'd also tend to swerve races where the top rated horse is top rated by a mile. The only constant that I have observed so far is that this only works for the first page of the races, no matter how many meetings there are. This leads me to feel that the forecast price (far more accurate for the early races) is a key metric.

But, hey ho, if you want to do some investigation of your own, this can be done by the Builder and I'm also quite happy to provide any spreadsheets for any of you who want to do things the old fashioned way.

Anyway, enough of that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 8%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 11.11%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 13.79% from all 29 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 51.47 units returned to 78 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -34.01%

Top Rated Horse - There were 2 winners from the top rated horses from 25 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 10.38 units returned to 25 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -58.48%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the second rated horses from 26 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 18.01 units returned to 26 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -30.73%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 27 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 23.08 units returned to 27 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -14.52%

Forecasts

There were 0 forecasts yesterday.

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Chepstow 14:05:00 - The CSF paid £9.32

Thurles 16:40:00 - The CSF paid £4.71

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Winners

From the 27 rated races there were 11 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 4 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Wolverhampton (AW)	14:15	My Lord (6)	5.50	5.99
Ludlow	15:05	Ashcott Boy (1)	8.00	9.64
Wolverhampton (AW)	15:25	China Excels (8)	10.00	12.00
Wolverhampton (AW)	16:35	Rosealee (4)	5.50	6.23

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = All Weather Wonders - Season Proper - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 28 days ago and RC1 was more than 90% and RC2 was more than 60% and the Month is January or the Month is February or the Month is March or the Month is April or the Month is September or the Month is October or the Month is November or the Month is December

Selection = Back to ISP - Wolverhampton (AW) - 14:50:00 - Tatting (1)

Races (over last year): 54 Wins: 25 Strike Rate: 46.30% ROI: 115.75% AV SP: 2.50

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £85.00

Tatting came fourth.

Chancers Bet = NH Hurdles Wonders - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Hurdles and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and RC1 was more than 90% and RC2 was more than 60%

Selection = Back to ISP - Thurles - 16:40:00 - Val De Ferbet (4)

Races (over last year): 22 Wins: 9 Strike Rate: 40.91% ROI: 126.82AV SP: 3.10

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £59.00

Val de Ferbet came second.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Wolverhampton 14:50:00 - Anton Chigurh - 1st - Betfair paid 1.48 for the place.
Thules 16:05:00 - Just Soldier - Unplaced
Ludlow 17:20:00 - Lady Persephone - Unplaced
Thules 17:45:00 - Ceide Fields - Unplaced

We made a loss of 2.544 points on the day and have made a loss of 5.93 points for March.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 1.724832 points on the day and have made a loss of 8.54619 points for March.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 2.034 points yesterday and we have made a loss of 2.571315 points for March.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSMar.xls

Something to make you laugh

Math

ROMANCE MATHEMATICS

Smart man + smart woman = romance

Smart man + dumb woman = affair

Dumb man + smart woman = marriage

Dumb man + dumb woman = pregnancy

OFFICE ARITHMETIC

Smart boss + smart employee = profit

Smart boss + dumb employee = production

Dumb boss + smart employee = promotion

Dumb boss + dumb employee = overtime

SHOPPING MATH

A man will pay $2 for a $1 item he needs.

A woman will pay $1 for a $2 item that she doesn't need.

GENERAL EQUATIONS

A woman worries about the future until she gets a husband.

A man never worries about the future until he gets a wife.

A successful man is one who makes more money than his wife can spend.

A successful woman is one who can find such a man.

HAPPINESS

To be happy with a man, you must understand him a lot and love him a little.

To be happy with a woman, you must love her a lot and not try to understand her at all.

LONGEVITY STATISTICS

Married men live longer than single men, but married men are a lot more willing to die.

PROPENSITY TO CHANGE

A woman marries a man expecting he will change, but he doesn't.

A man marries a woman expecting that she won't change, but she does.

DISCUSSION TECHNIQUE

A woman has the last word in any argument.

Anything a man says after that is the beginning of a new argument.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 13 rated races from two meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards