Morning News

Good morning...

An average day for the ratings yesterday.

Yesterday's selections for the new strategy (which I'm starting to call the First Page Strategy) were...

Market Rasen 13:20 - Solomn Grundy - Win Bet - Won at 1.59

Market Rasen 13:50 - Shinooki - Win Bet - Unplaced

Cork 13:55 - Great Minds - Win Bet - Unplaced

Plumpton 14:00 - Cahill - Place Bet - Abandoned

Huntingdon 14:10 - Lombardy Boy - Place Bet - Won - 1.53

So, not a typical day with 2.82 points returned to 4 points staked.

The rules of the strategy are...

1). 1st page of the ratings.

This is because the forecast prices are slightly more accurate the earlier in the day as they have to be calculated at 9am. Also, early races are generally slightly easier races type to rate.

2). 2nd rated horse.

The second rated horse is generally at a higher price than the top rated horse. By choosing the bet type according to the price, we can make money from this by place betting as well as win betting.

3). Only in races up to and including 16 runners.

Although, according to the spreadsheet, we can make serious money in some of the bigger races, we can also lose money on some of them.

4). Only Class 4 (HC and non HC), Class 5 non-HC and Irish non-HC races.

These tend to (and this was a surprise to me) make up the majority of all the first page races.

5). If my forecast price is up to 5.5 then it is a win bet; above 5.5 it is a place bet.

The number of times that a 2nd rated horse gets placed when it is at a decent price allows us to profit from this.

6). If it is a place bet then only 5 runner (and more) races qualify.

Obviously, it's pointless going for a place if Betfair won't pay out on it.

And that's it - historically (over the last 2 years) it gives a 34.64% strike rate and a 40.47% profit on stakes.

The strategy gives 3.144 races a day.

I have updated the spreadsheet of the last 2 years results. This is available at... http://focusratings.com/data/2nd_rated_v1.xls

Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 24.39%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 23.4%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 20.69% from all 58 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 75.42 units returned to 123 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -38.68%

Top Rated Horse - There were 10 winners from the top rated horses from 41 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 22.74 units returned to 41 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -44.54%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 11 winners from the second rated horses from 43 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 31.18 units returned to 43 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -27.49%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 39 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 21.5 units returned to 39 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -44.87%

Forecasts

There were 4 forecasts yesterday.

Fakenham 14:50:00 - The CSF paid £2.12

Market Rasen 15:00:00 - The CSF paid £6.06

Huntingdon 15:55:00 - The CSF paid £4.45

Fairyhouse 17:35:00 - The CSF paid £3.69

Reverse Forecasts

There were 6 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Huntingdon 14:10:00 - The CSF paid £15.11

Fakenham 14:15:00 - The CSF paid £3.72

Chepstow 14:55:00 - The CSF paid £2.48

Huntingdon 15:20:00 - The CSF paid £2.78

Huntingdon 16:30:00 - The CSF paid £3.18

Fairyhouse 18:40:00 - The CSF paid £3.87

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Market Rasen 15:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £20.80

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 5 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Fakenham 14:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £4.30

Market Rasen 14:25:00 - The Trifecta paid £23.50

Chepstow 14:55:00 - The Trifecta paid £5.70

Huntingdon 16:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £3.20

Fairyhouse 18:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £3.70

Winners

From the 54 rated races there were 24 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 4 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Market Rasen	13:50	Moidore (4)	6.50	7.20
Redcar	14:05	Perfect Peak (5)	6.00	6.60
Huntingdon	14:10	Lombardy Boy (10)	5.50	5.90
Cork	15:00	A Few Dollars More (1)	9.00	11.15

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = NH Chase - Mares who are top rated and came 3rd last time out. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Chase and Horse = Mare and where Position last time out = Third

Selection = Back to ISP - Cork - 15:35:00 - Carrigeen Kigelia (3)

Races (over last year): 20 Wins: 7 Strike Rate: 35.00% ROI: 110.60% AV SP: 3.16

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £21.20

Carrigeen Kigelia pulled up.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Plumpton 14:00:00 - Cahill - Abandoned
Chepstow 14:55:00 - Leg Lock Luke - 3rd - Betfair paid 1.59 for the place
Fairyhouse 15:15:00 - Attribution - Unplaced

We made a loss of 0.4395 points on the day and have made a loss of 9.7285 points for March.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 0.297981 points on the day and have made a loss of 12.49215 points for March.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 0.678 points yesterday and we have made a loss of 7.995315 points for March.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSMar.xls

Something to make you laugh

Lumberyard

Jon's working at the lumberyard, pushing a tree through the buzz saw, and accidentally shears off all ten of his fingers. He goes to the emergency room.

The doctor says, "Yuck! Well, give me the fingers, and I'll see what I can do."

Jon says, "I haven't got the fingers."

The doctor says, "What do you mean, you haven't got the fingers? It's 2015. We've got microsurgery and all kinds of incredible techniques. I could have put them back on and made you like new. Why didn't you bring the fingers?"

Jon says, "Well, sh*t, Doc, I couldn't pick 'em up."

And one from David O.

Asda Joke

So after landing my new job as a Asda greeter, a good find for many retirees, I lasted less than a day.

About two hours into my first day on the job a very loud, unattractive, mean-acting woman walked into the store with her two kids, yelling obscenities at them all the way through the entrance.

I said pleasantly, “Good morning and welcome to Asda. Nice children you have there. Are they twins?"

The ugly woman stopped yelling long enough to say, “Hell no, they ain’t twins. The oldest one is 9, and the other one is 7. Why the hell would you think they’re twins? Are you blind, or just stupid?”

So I replied, “I’m neither blind nor stupid, ma’am. I just couldn’t believe someone slept with you twice. Have a good day and thank you for shopping at Asda.”

My supervisor said I probably wasn’t cut out for this line of work.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 27 rated races from four meetings.

Every race is rated.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards