Morning News

Good morning...

As so, so day for the ratings yesterday.

We only got 1 out of 3 for the FPS (First Page Strategy) selections and, of the 3 selections, that was one of the 2 Place Bets.

However, as historically, the strategy has shown a strike rate of about 35% and a profit on investment of 40% - thus, if we doubled our money yesterday, today needs to be less good to maintain those averages.

Our three selections yesterday were...

1). Exeter 14:00 - Romeo is Bleeding - Win Bet - 3rd.

2). Southwell 14:50 - Patriotic - Place Bet - Unplaced.

3). Downpatrick 14:55 - Areema - Place Bet - 3rd @ 2.04.

Thus, we had 1.93 points returned to 3 points staked.

A losing day, in other words but, you know...

I'm not too fazed by that.

The numbers will sort themselves out in the end.

Something that did occur to me yesterday is the forecasts (or reverse forecasts) in just the handicap races. Just take a look at the reverse forecasts and the returns that we made yesterday. Perhaps there is an angle there. Yesterday there were 23 handicap races. By doing the reverse forecast in each one, £46 would have been staked for a return of £88.99.

I'm still struggling to find an answer for profiting from the Trifectas, though.

Anyway, that's something for the future, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25.81%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 28.13%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25% from all 32 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 73.17 units returned to 89 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -17.79%

Top Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the top rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 20.92 units returned to 31 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -32.52%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the second rated horses from 29 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 21 units returned to 29 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -27.59%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 29 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 31.25 units returned to 29 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 7.76%

Forecasts

There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Exeter 17:15:00 - The CSF paid £8.54

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Southwell (AW) 16:00:00 - The CSF paid £70.47

Kempton (AW) 20:25:00 - The CSF paid £18.52

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Exeter 14:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £27.60

Southwell (AW) 17:05:00 - The Trifecta paid £53.00

Winners

From the 32 rated races there were 15 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 5 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Lingfield (AW)	14:10	Knight Music (7)	11.00	14.00
Exeter	15:05	An Poc Ar Buile (3)	8.00	10.50
Southwell (AW)	16:00	Harwoods Star (1)	9.00	11.12
Kempton (AW)	19:55	Harry Holland (5)	8.50	9.86/td>
Kempton (AW)	20:25	Gentlemen (2)	9.00	11.00

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Downpatrick 14:55:00 - Ontopoftheworld - Unplaced
Downpatrick 15:30:00 - Swift - Unplaced
Downpatrick 17:10:00 -Waltz Legend - Unplaced

We made a loss of 3 points on the day and have made a loss of 13.7285 points for March.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 1.356 points on the day and have made a loss of 14.52615 points for March.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 1.356 points yesterday and we have made a loss of 10.02915 points for March.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSMar.xls

Something to make you laugh

I've got to say that this one almost made me wet myself laughing!

Watermelons

There was a farmer who grew watermelons.

He was doing pretty well, but he was disturbed by some local kids who would sneak into his watermelon patch at night and eat his watermelons.

After some careful thought, he came up with a clever idea that he thought would scare the kids away for sure.

He made up a sign and posted it in the field.

The next night, the kids showed up and they saw the sign which read, "Warning! One of the watermelons in this field has been injected with cyanide."

The kids ran off, made up their own sign and posted it next to the farmer's sign.

When the farmer returned, he surveyed the field.

He noticed that no watermelons were missing, but the sign next to his read, "Now there are two!"

Today

Today's early test ratings show 34 rated races from five meetings.

Every race is rated.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards