Morning News

Good morning...

So, we made a slight loss on both the First Page Strategy and the Place Betting Strategy (although our Banker's Bet won) but...

By blindly backing the top rated horse in every race on the first page of the ratings,

We had three wins from seven races (a strike rate of 42.86%) which gave us 17.7745 points returned (after a 5% commission) to 7 points staked.

I'm beginning to think that a combination of the First Page Strategy, the Place Betting Strategy and Backing the Top Rated Horse on the first page of the ratings might make a decent sort of combined strategy.

So, I'll be having a think about that today. Until then, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 34.29%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 34.29%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 34.29% from all 35 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 75.32 units returned to 104 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -27.58%

Top Rated Horse - There were 12 winners from the top rated horses from 35 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 43.52 units returned to 35 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 24.34%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the second rated horses from 34 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 10.55 units returned to 34 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -68.97%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 35 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 21.25 units returned to 35 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -39.29%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Lingfield (AW) 15:10:00 - The CSF paid £1.21

Lingfield (AW) 16:45:00 - The CSF paid £2.84

Reverse Forecasts

There were 0 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Lingfield (AW) 16:45:00 - The Trifecta paid £4.60

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Winners

From the 35 rated races there were 19 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 3 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Lingfield (AW)	14:10	Anjuna Beach (3)	9.00	11.45
Nottingham	16:55	Motdaw (4)	5.50	5.70
Kempton (AW)	19:45	Prince Of Arran (3)	8.00	8.38

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = AW Handicap Claimers - Season Proper - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Claimer and where the Race is a Handicap Race and the Month is January or the Month is February or the Month is March or the Month is April or the Month is October or the Month is November or the Month is December

Selection = Back to ISP - Lingfield (AW) - 14:40:00 - Seek The Fair Land (4)

Races (over last year): 13 Wins: 6 Strike Rate: 46.15% ROI: 136.14% AV SP: 2.95

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £47.00

Seek the Fair Land won @ 2.63 ISP (2.93 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

1). Nottingham 14:20 - Finelcity - Place Bet - 3rd - Betfair paid 2.07 for the place.

2). Catterick 14:30 - Longshadow - Place Bet - Unplaced.

3). Nottingham 14:50 - A Momentofmadness - Win Bet - 3rd.

1.9665 points (after a 5% commission) was returned to 3 points staked.

Place Betting Strategy

Nottingham 15:20:00 - Lexington Abbey - 1st - Betfair paid 1.9 for the place.
Leopardstown 17:00:00 - Etched - Unplaced

We made a loss of 0.145 points on the day and have made a profit of 45.865 points for April.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 0.77631 points on the day and have made a profit of 39.265014 points for March.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 1.356 points yesterday and we have made a profit of 38.023596 points for April.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSApril.xls

Something to make you laugh

The Collar

A little boy got on the bus, sat next to a man reading a book, and noticed he had his collar on backwards.

The little boy asked why he wore his collar that way. The man, who was a priest, said, "I am a Father."

The little boy replied, "My Daddy doesn't wear his collar like that."

The priest looked up from his book and answered, "I am the Father of many."

The boy said, "My Dad has 4 boys, 4 girls and two grandchildren and he doesn't wear his collar that way."

The priest, getting impatient, said, "I am the Father of thousands" and went back to reading his book.

The little boy sat quietly thinking for a while, then leaned over and said, "Maybe you should wear your pants backwards instead of your collar."

Today

Today's early test ratings show 35 rated races from five meetings.

Every race is rated.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards