Morning News

Good morning...

A decent strike rate for the top rated horse (the 3rd 30% plus day in a row.)

7 forecasts from the 39 races.

Only one Trifecta but it did pay £165.80

Our Banker's Bet (which was also our Chancer's Bet - same horse but different system) won.

Admittedly, we dropped a point on the First Page Strategy but...

To level stakes we made 10.45 points (to 2 points staked) on our Place Betting Strategy.

For 20 bets over the last 8 days we have had 53.315 points (after commission) returned to 20 points staked.

The new strategy that I'm testing (blindly backing the top rated horse on the first page of the ratings when it has a FC of greater than 2.0) gave us 11.0105 points returned (after a 5% commission) to 6 points staked.

The three strategies combined gave us 14.4605 points profit on 9 points staked.

And all the stress of racing done and dusted by 3pm.

Still, more work to do on that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 35.9%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 35.71%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 31.82% from all 44 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 115.47 units returned to 117 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -1.31%

Top Rated Horse - There were 14 winners from the top rated horses from 39 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 48.9 units returned to 39 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 25.38%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the second rated horses from 40 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 11.07 units returned to 40 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -72.33%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 38 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 55.5 units returned to 38 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 46.05%

Forecasts

There were 7 forecasts yesterday.

Newcastle 14:40:00 - The CSF paid £6.26

Wexford 17:05:00 - The CSF paid £8.40

Newcastle 17:35:00 - The CSF paid £3.88

Wexford 17:40:00 - The CSF paid £17.90

Dundalk (AW) 19:30:00 - The CSF paid £1.78

Wolverhampton (AW) 20:20:00 - The CSF paid £1.92

Wolverhampton (AW) 21:20:00 - The CSF paid £3.40

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Leicester 14:30:00 - The CSF paid £3.49

Leicester 16:50:00 - The CSF paid £16.27

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 trifecta yesterday.

Wexford 17:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £165.80

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Leicester 14:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £4.60

Wexford 16:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £10.80

Winners

From the 42 rated races there were 22 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 5 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Aintree	15:25	Gods Own (3)	11.00	27.47
Wolverhampton (AW)	17:50	Dream Ally (7)	10.00	13.00
Wexford	18:10	Annie Alainn (2)	7.00	8.80
Wolverhampton (AW)	19:20	Lorelei (6)	6.00	7.40
Wexford	19:40	Theatre Wine (13)	34.00	50.53

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = NH Hurdles Wonders - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Hurdles and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and RC1 was more than 90% and RC2 was more than 60%

Selection = Back to ISP - Wexford - 16:30:00 - Ice Cool (4)

Races (over last year): 23 Wins: 9 Strike Rate: 39.13% ROI: 121.30% AV SP: 3.10

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £49.00

Ice Cool won @ 3.0 ISP (3.05 BSP.)

Chancers Bet = Irish Logic - where R4 Status = 1 and the Horse\'s Average R4 is greater than 4.0 and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and where Position last time out = Unplaced and where Country = IRE and Horse was NOT a Course Winner and Horse was NOT a Distance Winner

Selection = Back to ISP - Wexford - 16:30:00 - Ice Cool (4)

Races (over last year): 9 Wins: 3 Strike Rate: 33.33% ROI: 158.32AV SP: 4.75

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £52.50

Ice Cool won @ 3.0 ISP (3.05 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

1). Leicester 13:55 - Norse Magic - Win Bet - 3rd.

2). Newcastle 14:05 - Lamool - Win Bet - NR

0 points were returned to 1 point staked.

Place Betting Strategy

Wexford 17:05:00 - Hawkeye Hero - Unplaced
Wexford 19:40:00 - Theater Wine - 1st - Betfair paid 12.0 for the place

We made a profit of 10.45 points on the day and have made a profit of 53.315 points for April.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 6.4071 points on the day and have made a profit of 43.638114 points for March.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a profit of 6.47071 points yesterday and we have made a profit of 43.752696 points for April.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSApril.xls

Something to make you laugh

THE KIWI APPROACH

A young Kiwi lad moved to London and went to Harrods looking for a job.

The manager asked 'Do you have any sales experience?'

The young man answered 'Yeah, I was a salesman back home in Wainuiomata.'

The manager liked the Kiwi so he gave him the job.

His first day was challenging and busy, but he got through it.

After the store was locked up, the manager came down and asked, 'OK, so how many sales did you make today?'

The Kiwi said 'One!'

The manager groaned and continued, 'Just one? Our sales people average 20

or 30 sales a day.

How much was the sale for?'

'£124,237.64p.'

The manager choked and exclaimed '£124,237.64!! What the hell did you sell him?'

'Well, first I sold him a small fish hook, then a medium fish hook and then I sold him a new fishing rod.'

'Then I asked him where he was going fishing and he said down at the coast, so I told him he would need a boat, so we went down to the boat department and I sold him that twin-engine Power Cat.'

'Then he said he didn't think his Honda Civic would pull it, so I took him down to car sales and I sold him the 4 x4'

The manager, incredulous, said, 'You mean to tell me...a guy came in here to buy a fish hook and you sold him a boat and a 4x4?'

'No, no, no.... he came in here to buy a box of tampons for his lady friend and I said...

'Well, since your weekend's buggered, you might as well go fishing.'

Today

Today's early test ratings show 42 rated races from seven meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards