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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

A very big day's racing yesterday with some interesting results.

Now I know that Focus Ratings isn't a tipping service but...

If you had been mad enough to back every top three rated horse (to equal £1 stakes), in all the rated races yesterday,

You'd have got a return of £142.17 for £139 staked.

That was obviously helped by our 33/1 winner (55.42 BSP) in the 12:25 at Fairyhouse.

But, before I get onto that stuff, let's look at yesterday's results....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 20.83%.

Not the best start to the year but, looking the the individual races, I can't see anything too horrible.

Forecasts

There were two forecasts yesterday.

Catterick 14:50 - The CSF paid £6.77

Cheltenham 15:05 - The CSF paid £6.56

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was one trifecta yesterday.

Fakenham 15:00 - the Trifecta paid £22.10

Winners

From the 49 rated races there were 28 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - seven of those were at a nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Cheltenham 12:10 Thomas Brown 6.0 6.2
Fairyhouse 12:25 O'Ceallaigh 34.0 55.42
Musselburgh 13:00 Ulsge Beatha 6.5 6.12
Catterick 13:05 Snowed In 6.0 7.23
Musselburgh 14:45 Purcell's Bridge 6.0 6.4
Fairyhouse 15:10 Sword Fish 5.5 6.2
Fakenham 15:35 Vision du Coeur 11.0 12:59

Comments...

Here's the actual review of some of the races...

1). Fakenham 13:50 - We predicted the first three horses - unfortunately in the wrong order.

2). Catterick 12:50 - We got the forecast in this race - the CSF paid £6.77

3). Fakenham 15:00 - We predicted the first three horses in the right order - the Trifecta paid £22.10

4). Cheltenham 15:05 - We got the forecast in this race - the CSF paid £6.56

5). Southwell 15:15 - We predicted the first three horses - unfortunately in the wrong order.

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Southwell (AW) - 14:05:00 - Grosmont (4)

Races (over last year): 36 Wins: 22 Strike Rate: 61.11% ROI: 165.61% AV SP: 2.71%

Chancers Bet = AW Seasonal Losers (to win!) - where R4 Status = 1 and where R4 is Greater than Average R4 and the Horse\'s Average R4 is greater than 2.5 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 60% and where Position last time out = Unplaced and the Month is January or the Month is February or the Month is March or the Month is September or the Month is October or the Month is November or the Month is December and the Horse\'s Confidence is greater than 140%

Selection = Back to ISP - Southwell (AW) - 14:05:00 - Grosmont (4)

Races (over last year): 35 Wins: 19 Strike Rate: 54.29% ROI: 127.58% AV SP: 2.35%

You'll notice that both systems produced the same selection - this is entirely acceptable and would suggest that the horse is a sure thing.

However, Grosmont came third.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's 4am ratings show 33 races from 5 meetings.

Ffos Las 15:55 - I find this race interesting as our top rated horse, Hollies Pearl, last ran in a Class 1 race (and came second.) Thus, he is dropping 5 classes.

Anyway, in no way is that a tip; it's just a race where I'll be interested in looking at the results.

I can't see anything else that stands out but after all of yesterday's racing, that's no surprise.

I'll be back to work flat out from Monday but will be carrying on getting the Speed Ratings compiled today and over the weekend.

So, as always...

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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