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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Let's get the Grand National out of the way first.

Our top rated horse came second but I did get a System Admin email from my server. These normally get sent automatically if there's a technical problem such as running out of memory or hard disk space. Yesterday the email just read... "How the hell am I to be expected to rate a 40 runner race!"

Actually, I made that last bit up but..

I personally think that the Grand National is unrateable and so I'm happy with the 2nd place.

We made small profits from our First Page Strategy and our Place Betting Strategy.

None of the first page top rated horses won, though.

I still think that a combination of the three strategies makes money long term but I remember some research that I published last year that suggested that Saturdays were not profitable for the top rated horse so I'll have to re-visit that on Monday.

I said, about this time last year, that "April is the cruellest month."

And I wasn't trying to get you to read T.S. Eliot's poetry; I was more trying to suggest that this has got to be about the worst time of the year for betting as the jumps horses have been running all winter (and are tired), the same goes for the season proper AW horses and the Flat has only just started (with many of the horses having not run for 6 months and the 2 year olds having never run before.)

So, to have had 4 30% plus strike rate days in a row is pretty good, in the scheme of things.

Anyway, it's my day off today so let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 33.33%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 33.33%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 30.23% from all 43 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 67.27 units returned to 120 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -43.94%

Top Rated Horse - There were 13 winners from the top rated horses from 39 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 38.27 units returned to 39 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -1.87%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the second rated horses from 42 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 18 units returned to 42 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -57.14%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 39 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 11 units returned to 39 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -71.79%

Forecasts

There were 5 forecasts yesterday.

Aintree 14:25:00 - The CSF paid £4.07

Sedgefield 14:40:00 - The CSF paid £3.00

Sedgefield 15:20:00 - The CSF paid £3.00

Sedgefield 16:30:00 - The CSF paid £11.30

Gowran Park 16:35:00 - The CSF paid £3.44

Reverse Forecasts

There were 3 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Gowran Park 13:50:00 - The CSF paid £3.65

Chepstow 16:40:00 - The CSF paid £3.44

Wolverhampton (AW) 20:20:00 - The CSF paid £6.87

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 4 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Aintree 14:25:00 - The Trifecta paid £8.70

Sedgefield 15:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £7.90

Sedgefield 16:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £25.20

Gowran Park 16:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £9.60

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 4 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Gowran Park 13:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £3.65

Lingfield (AW) 14:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £50.50

Chepstow 14:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £22.40

Chepstow 14:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £15.80

Winners

From the 42 rated races there were 23 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 1 of those was at a nice price.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Lingfield (AW) 14:35 Exchequer (6) 9.00 10.00

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

1). Gowran Park 13:20 - Fiuntach - Place Bet - 2nd @ 2.27

2). Gowran Park 13:50 - The Moore Factor - Win Bet - 1st @ 2.62

3). Sedgefield 14:05 - Bennys Well - Win Bet - Unplaced

4). Chepstow 14:15 - Unison - Win Bet - 3rd

4.6455 points (after a 5% commission) was returned to 4 points staked.

Place Betting Strategy

Chepstow 14:50:00 - Benny's King - 2nd - Betfair paid 1.6 for the place.
Aintree 15:00:00 - The Game Changer - 2nd - Betfair paid 2.81 for the place
Chepstow 18:35:00 - Hoo Bally Diva - Unplaced

We made a profit of 1.2895 points on the day and have made a profit of 54.315 points for April.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 0.874281 points on the day and have made a profit of 44.512395 points for March.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a profit of 0.487821 points yesterday and we have made a profit of 44.240517 points for April.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSApril.xls

Something to make you laugh

The 5 Questions Most Feared By Men

1. What are you thinking about?
2. Do you love me?
3. Do I look fat in this?
4. Do you think she is prettier than me?
5. What would you do if I died?

What makes these questions so difficult is that each one is guaranteed to explode into a major argument if the man answers incorrectly (i.e. tells the truth). Therefore, as a public service, each question is analyzed below, along with possible responses.

Question #1: What are you thinking about? The proper answer to this, of course, is: "I'm sorry if I've been pensive, dear. I was just reflecting on what a warm, wonderful, thoughtful, caring, intelligent woman you are, and how lucky I am to have met you."

This response obviously bears no resemblance to the true answer, which most likely is one of the following: a. "Football." b. "Golf." c. "How fat you are." d. "How I would spend the insurance money if you died."

Perhaps the best response to this question was offered by Al Bundy, who once told Peg, "If I wanted you to know what I was thinking, I would be talking to you!"

Question #2: Do you love me? The proper response is: "Yes!" or, if you feel a more detailed answer is in order, "Yes, dear."

Inappropriate responses include: a. "Oh yeah, sh*tloads." b. "Would it make you feel better if I said yes?" c. "That depends on what you mean by love." d. "Does it matter?" e. "Who, me?"

Question #3: Do I look fat? The correct answer is an emphatic: "Of course not!"

Incorrect answers are: a. "Compared to what?" b. "I wouldn't call you fat, but you're not exactly thin." c. "A little extra weight looks good on you." d. "I've seen fatter." e. "Sorry, what did you say? I was just thinking about how I would spend the insurance money if you died."

Question #4: Do you think she's prettier than me? Once again, the proper response is an emphatic: "Of course not!"

Incorrect responses include: a. "Yes, but you have a better personality." b. "Not prettier, but definitely thinner." c. "Not as pretty as you when you were her age." d. "Define pretty." e. "Sorry what did you say? I was just thinking about how I would spend the insurance money if you died."

Question #5: What would you do if I died? A definite no-win question. (The real answer, of course, is "Buy a Ferrari and a boat.")

No matter how you answer this, be prepared for at least an hour of follow-up questions, usually along these lines:

Woman: Would you get married again?
Man: Definitely not!
Woman: Why not -- don't you like being married?
Man: Of course I do.
Woman: Then why wouldn't you remarry?
Man: Okay, I'd get married again.
Woman: You would? (With a hurtful look on her face)
Man: (audible groan)
Woman: Would you sleep with her in our bed?
Man: Where else would we sleep?
Woman: Would you put away my pictures, and replace them with pictures of her?
Man: That would seem like the proper thing to do.
Woman: And would you let her use my golf clubs?
Man: She can't use them -- she's left-handed.
Woman: (silence)
Man: Sh*t.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 27 rated races from four meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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