Morning News

Good morning...

Yesterday was my day off so I didn't even think about horse racing at all.

Instead, I watched a film/documentary about horse racing!

It was called Dark Horse - I'm not sure if it's been broadcast on British TV or if it's available from Amazon but...

If you have the chance to watch it,

I'd certainly recommend that you do.

It's all about a horse called Dream Alliance.

A horse that is bought by a small Welsh mining community and goes on (after recovering from injury) to win the 2009 Welsh Grand National

Such a great, feel good, film/documentary.

Quote from the film.... "When I went to the races, I wasn't Janice the supermarket cleaner anymore, I was Janice the racehorse owner."

Another quote (once again from Janice, the barmaid who also worked as a supermarket cleaner to pay the horse's bills)... "To look at him you'd think that I brought that into the world.

Short of giving birth to him, I brought him into the world.

And he brought a lot of pleasure to a lot of people!

He enriched a lot of lives.

And that's, that's something special.

Another memorable quote... After his accident - a quote to his vet... "If there's any chance that you can save him, I don't care if he can race again. You've got to keep him alive."

Well, they kept him alive, he raced again and won the Welsh Grand National the following year.

Good film - not sure why I spent my day off watching that rather than Rambo 3 or Die Hard 4 (or Emmanuelle 6) but I'm very glad that I did.

So, now that I've got that off my chest, what of yesterday?

Well, for the backing the top rated horse on the first page of the ratings we only had 5 races as Tramore was abandonned.

From the 5 races we only got 2 top rated winners but they gave us 6.5645 points returned to 5 points staked.

For our First Page Strategy we only got 1.4725 points returned to 4 points staked.

Our Place Betting Strategy gave us 3.672 points returned to 3 points staked.

So, overall, a loss but it was a difficult day.

Any, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 26.32%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 17.24% from all 29 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 43.58 units returned to 55 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -20.76%

Top Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the top rated horses from 19 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 20.38 units returned to 19 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 7.26%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the second rated horses from 19 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 13.25 units returned to 19 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -30.26%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 17 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 9.95 units returned to 17 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -41.47%

Forecasts

There were 3 forecasts yesterday.

Ffos Las 14:30:00 - The CSF paid £25.47

Ffos Las 16:15:00 - The CSF paid £30.86

Ffos Las 16:45:00 - The CSF paid £12.25

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Ffos Las 17:15:00 - The CSF paid £9.71

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 4 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Ffos Las 14:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £17.00

Ffos Las 15:05:00 - The Trifecta paid £9.10

Market Rasen 15:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £13.70

Leopardstown 17:25:00 - The Trifecta paid £25.90

Winners

From the 28 rated races there were 12 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 2 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Ffos Las	16:15	Driftwood Haze (4)	9.00	10.00
Ffos Las	17:15	Alice Pink (1)	7.00	8.10

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

1). Tramore 13:50 - Peace N Milan - Win Bet - Abandoned

2). Ffos Las 14:00 - Overtown Express - Win Bet - Unplaced

3). Leopardstown 14:10 - Housesofparliament - Win Bet - 2nd

4). Market Rasen 14:15 - Ballycamp - Place Bet - 2nd - Betfair paid 1.55 for the place

5). Tramore 14:20 - Dontbackme - Win Bet - Abandoned

6). Leopardstown 14:40 - True Solitaire - Win Bet - 3rd

1.4725 points (after a 5% commission) was returned to 4 points staked.

Place Betting Strategy

Tramore 13:50:00 - Kayf Hampshire - Abandoned
Fffos Las 14:00:00 - Eminent Post - 3rd - Betfair paid 2.21 for the place.
Market Rasen 14:15:00 - Ballycamp - 2nd - Betfair paid 1.55 for the place.
Market Rasen 14:45:00 - Minella Experience - Unplaced

We made a profit of 0.672 points on the day and have made a profit of 55.2765 points for April.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 0.131871 points on the day and have made a profit of 44.644266 points for March.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a profit of 0.779361 points yesterday and we have made a profit of 45.019878 points for April.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSApril.xls

Something to make you laugh

One from David O....

SOME GOOD ADVICE

Two aliens landed in the Arizona desert near a gas station that was closed for the night.

They approached one of the gas pumps and the younger alien addressed it, saying, "Greetings, Earthling. We come in peace. Take us to your leader."

The Gas pump, of course, didn't respond.

The Younger alien became angry at the lack of response.

The Older alien said, "I'd calm down if I were you."

The Younger alien ignored the warning and repeated his greeting.

Again, there was no response.

Angry at the pump's haughty attitude, he drew his ray gun and said gruffly, "Greetings, Earthling. We come in peace. Take us to your leader or I will fire!"

The Older alien again warned his comrade saying, "You probably don't want to do that! I really think that will make him mad."

"Rubbish," replied the cocky, young alien. He Aimed his weapon and opened fire.

There was a huge explosion.

A massive fireball roared towards him and blew the younger alien off his feet and threw him in a burnt, smoking mess about 200 yards away in a cactus patch.

Half an hour passed. When he finally regained consciousness, he refocused his three eyes, straightened his bent antenna, and looked dazedly at the older, wiser alien who was standing over him shaking his big, green head.

"What a ferocious creature!" exclaimed the young, fried alien. "He almost killed me! How did you know he was so dangerous?"

The Older alien leaned over, placed a friendly feeler on his crispy friend and replied, "If there's one thing I've learned during my intergalactic travels, you never mess with a guy who can loop his penis over his shoulder twice and then stick it in his ear."

Today

Today's early test ratings show 26 rated races from four meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards