Morning News

Good morning...

Another strange day, yesterday but...

I guess that that's only to be expected at the start of the Flat season.

The one thing that stood out for me was just how many non-runners there were.

As you probably know, non-runners are the bugbear of my life and, if I had my way, would automatically be exported to France to end up as beefburgers.

As an example...

Yesterday, we had 6 Place Betting Selections; of those, 4 were non-runners.

Luckily the remaining horses both got placed and so we had a 100% strike rate with that strategy and made a decent profit.

For the first page strategy we had 3 selections and 1 of those was a non-runner.

Thus, from those 2 strategies, 5 of the 9 selections didn't run.

Anyway, rant over, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 13.89%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 15%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 12.5% from all 48 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 76.76 units returned to 106 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -27.58%

Top Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the top rated horses from 36 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 9.77 units returned to 36 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -72.86%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the second rated horses from 37 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 36.27 units returned to 37 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -1.97%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the third rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 30.72 units returned to 33 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -6.91%

Forecasts

There were 0 forecasts yesterday.

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Fontwell 13:35:00 - The CSF paid £20.21

Ayr 14:00:00 - The CSF paid £1.76

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 6 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Fontwell 13:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £54.30

Ayr 14:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £1.90

Southwell 17:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £82.30

Ballinrobe 17:25:00 - The Trifecta paid £117.60

Southwell 17:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £9.40

Ballinrobe 18:55:00 - The Trifecta paid £13.40

Winners

From the 44 rated races there were 19 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 4 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Southwell	17:10	Trapper Peak (2)	5.50	5.88
Ballinrobe	17:55	Mic Milano (9)	8.00	10.17
Bath	18:20	Demora (2)	10.00	11.22
Dundalk (AW)	19:35	Approcaillis (11)	13.00	18.50

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

1). Fontwell 13:35 - Red Devil Star - Place Bet - 1st - Betfair paid 1.55 for the place.

2). Fontwell 14:10 - Lessons In Milan - Win Bet - Unplaced

3). Fontwell 14:45 - Abbreviate - Win Bet - Non-runner

Place Betting Strategy

Fontwell 14:10:00 - Blameitonalmyroots - NR
Bath 17:20:00 - Hurricane Alert - NR
Ballinrobe 17:25:00 - Definite Earl - 2nd - Betfair paid 3.39 for the place.
Fontwell 17:30:00 - Alexander the Grey - NR
Dundalk 17:35:00 - Corker Hill - NR
Ballinrobe 18:55:00 - Archie Meade - 2nd - Betfair paid 2.58 for the place.

We made a profit of 3.7715 points on the day and have made a profit of 53.708 points for April.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 3.574755 points on the day and have made a profit of 44.36493 points for April.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 3.574755 points yesterday and we have made a profit of 43.342845 points for April.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSApril.xls

Something to make you laugh

One from Lee...

No sex after surgery

A recent article in the West Australian newspaper reported that a woman, Mrs.Maynard, has sued a Perth Hospital, saying that after her husband had surgery there, he lost all interest in sex.

A hospital spokesman replied: "Mr. Maynard was admitted for cataract surgery. All we did was correct his eyesight."

Today

Today's early test ratings show 43 rated races from six meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards