Morning News

Good morning...

Well, we didn't do so well in the Scottish Grand National.

Our top rated horse could only manage 8th place but...

Our 2nd Rated horse won the race @ 20.83 BSP, 15.00 ISP and our 3rd rated horse came third.

As the race was a 28 runner handicap I'm not too unhappy with the result.

For the new strategy that I'm testing (backing the top rated horse to win for all races on the first page of the ratings) we have 4 winners from the 7 races and had 17.917 points returned (after commission) to 7 points staked.

For the First Page Strategy we got 2 out of 2 and had 3.591 points returned (after commission) to 2 points staked.

We made a slight loss on the Place Betting Strategy but, once again, the three strategies combined gave us 12 bets, 7 of them winners and a combined return of 22.7005 points to 12 points staked.

I think that there's something to this combined strategy.

Oh, by the way, had you done the Tricast (or even the combination Tricast) in every race you would have made a profit yesterday and...

Before I forget it, our Bankers Bet also won, yesterday.

Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 32.5%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 32.56%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 30.23% from all 43 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 106.3 units returned to 118 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -9.92%

Top Rated Horse - There were 13 winners from the top rated horses from 40 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 46.05 units returned to 40 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 15.12%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the second rated horses from 39 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 26.5 units returned to 39 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -32.05%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 39 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 33.75 units returned to 39 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -13.46%

Forecasts

There were 4 forecasts yesterday.

Chelmsford (AW) 13:35:00 - The CSF paid £9.91

Bangor-on-Dee 14:15:00 - The CSF paid £3.84

Wolverhampton (AW) 19:10:00 - The CSF paid £6.82

Nottingham 19:55:00 - The CSF paid £11.16

Reverse Forecasts

There were 0 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Wolverhampton (AW) 19:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £84.10

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Chelmsford (AW) 15:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £3.40

Wolverhampton (AW) 20:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £370.40

Winners

From the 42 rated races there were 23 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 6 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Thirsk	14:20	Pomme De Terre (1)	9.00	9.58
Bangor-on-Dee	15:20	Normandy King (4)	5.50	5.90
Ayr	16:10	Vicente (5)	15.00	20.83
Bangor-on-Dee	16:30	Moidore (2)	12.00	15.50
Thirsk	16:40	Cymro (1)	5.50	6.60
Nottingham	17:25	Letmestopyouthere (4)	9.00	9.04

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = AW High RC2 Handicaps - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Handicap Race and the Race\'s RC2 is greater than 60% and Runners was equal to or less than 8

Selection = Back to ISP - Wolverhampton (AW) - 19:10:00 - Mr Red Clubs (6)

Races (over last year): 19 Wins: 8 Strike Rate: 42.11% ROI: 121.28% AV SP: 2.88

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £40.40

Mr Red Clubs won @ 2.10 (2.18 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

1). Chelmsford (AW) 13:35 - Mustashry - Place Bet - 2nd @ 1.68

2). Bangor-on-Dee 14:15 - Mahler Lad - Place Bet - 2 @ 2.10

Place Betting Strategy

Ayr 14:25:00 - Otago Trail - Unplaced
Thirsk 15:30:00 - Balti Boys - Unplaced
Ayr 17:50:00 - Reivers Lad - 3rd - Betfair paid 1.85 for the place.

We made a loss of 1.1925 points on the day and have made a profit of 52.5155 points for April.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 0.913903 points on the day and have made a profit of 43.4259 points for March.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 2.034 points yesterday and we have made a profit of 41.308845 points for April.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSApril.xls

Something to make you laugh

Dilbert's Salary Theorem

Dilbert's Salary Theorem states that Engineers and scientists can never earn as much as business executives and sales people. This theorem can now be supported by a mathematical equation based on the following two postulates:

Postulate 1: Knowledge is Power.
Postulate 2: Time is Money.

As every engineer knows: Power = Work / Time

Since: Knowledge = Power,
then Knowledge = Work/Time,
and Time = Money,
then Knowledge = Work/Money.

Solving for Money, we get: Money = Work / Knowledge.

Thus, as Knowledge approaches zero, money approaches infinity,
regardless of the amount of work done.

Conclusion: The less you know, the more you make.

Bummer.

And one from Dave O...

Today

Today's early test ratings show 22 rated races from three meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards