Morning News

Good morning...

Well, my IT problems seem to be over.

I'm down one laptop but I've got 4 machines working.

The Mac won't talk to the other three but I guess that's just because he thinks he's too posh to do so.

The Windows machine is the only one that'll talk to one of my printers and none of the machines talk to the other printer.

I've found the missing hard disk and, as a result, have been able to update the PBS spreadsheet.

Speaking of which...

DS. sent me a mail which said...

"Sounds like you are having fun - NOT.

Maybe time to crack open a bottle of the finest red - he he...

Place selections had an excellent day-over 32pts at early prices...

So - hope you get it all sorted."

So, I was pretty keen to take a look for myself.

Can you believe that, for the first 22 days of April, with only 73 bets, we have made 63 points profit for the basic strategy.

I think the word for that is...

Obscene!

Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.17%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 28%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 26.92% from all 52 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 104.86 units returned to 141 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -25.63%

Top Rated Horse - There were 14 winners from the top rated horses from 48 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 45.86 units returned to 48 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -4.46%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the second rated horses from 47 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 48.5 units returned to 47 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 3.19%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 2 winners from the third rated horses from 46 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 10.5 units returned to 46 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -77.17%

Forecasts

There were 3 forecasts yesterday.

Chepstow 16:30:00 - The CSF paid £5.28

Dundalk (AW) 19:30:00 - The CSF paid £3.94

Dundalk (AW) 21:00:00 - The CSF paid £9.55

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Perth 16:15:00 - The CSF paid £34.48

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Perth 16:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £284.60

Dundalk (AW) 18:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £4.10

Winners

From the 50 rated races there were 25 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 7 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Doncaster	14:45	Time Check (6)	7.50	9.10
Perth	15:05	Gold Chain (12)	6.00	6.40
Sandown	16:05	Southern Stars (10)	5.50	7.83
Perth	16:15	Double Whammy (2)	5.50	6.24
Plumpton	16:50	Zante (9)	6.00	6.80
Chepstow	17:00	Curious Carlos (1)	5.50	6.77
Sandown	17:05	Stargazer (5)	9.00	10.79

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = All Weather Bankers - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 86% and the Horse\'s Confidence is greater than 150% and the Forecast Starting Price was less than 3.1

Selection = Back to ISP - Dundalk (AW) - 18:30:00 - Split The Atom (1)

Races (over last year): 29 Wins: 17 Strike Rate: 58.62% ROI: 114.90% AV SP: 1.96

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £43.20

Split the Atom won @ 1.40 ISP (1.49 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

1). Perth 14:00 - Danielles Journey - Win Bet - Unplaced

Place Betting Strategy

Chepstow 16:30:00 - Fionn Mac Cul - NR
Plumpton 16:50:00 - Lovely Bubbly - 3rd - Betfair paid 4.20 for the place.
Chepstow 17:00:00 - Eminent Poet - NR
Killbegan 17:10:00 - Iwillifiwant -Unplaced
Perth 17:15:00 - Silver Trix - Unplaced
Killbegan 17:40:00 - Sweet Cherry - 1st - Batfair paid 1.56 for the place.
Chepstow 20:05:00 - Hannah Just Hannah - 3rd - Betfair paid 2.52 for the place.
Killbegan 20:10:00 -Supreme Steel - Unplaced

We made a profit of 2.016 points on the day and have made a profit of 63.7715 points for April.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 0.688848 points on the day and have made a profit of 54.144063 points for March.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a profit of 0.328152 points yesterday and we have made a profit of 50.397435 points for April.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSApril.xls

Something to make you laugh

Business Trip

Sally was driving home from one of her business trips in Northern Arizona, when she saw an elderly Navajo woman walking on the side of the road.

As the trip was a long and quiet one, she stopped the car and asked the Navajo woman if she would like a ride.

With a word or two of thanks, she got in the car.

After resuming the journey and a bit of small talk, the Navajo woman noticed a brown bag on the seat next to Sally.

"What's in the bag?" asked the old woman.

Sally looked down at the brown bag and said, "It's a bottle of wine. Got it for my husband."

The Navajo woman was silent for a moment, and then speaking with the quiet wisdom of an elder said, "Good trade."

Guardian Angel

A man was walking in the street when he heard a voice: "Stop! Stand still! If you take one more step, a brick will fall down on your head and kill you."

The man stopped and a big brick fell right in front of him.

The man was astonished.

He went on, and after awhile he was going to cross the road.

Once again the voice shouted: "Stop! Stand still! If you take one more step a car will run over you and you will die."

The man did as he was instructed, just as a car came careening around the corner, barely missing him.

the man asked.

"Who are you?"

"I am your guardian angel," the voice answered.

"Oh yeah?" the man asked... "And where the hell were you when I got married?"

Today

Today's early test ratings show 47 rated races from seven meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards