Morning News

Good morning...

Whilst the eventual strike rate wasn't so wonderful yesterday...

The number of combination Trifectas shows that we didn't get it so wrong.

Although I do have to admit that we seem to have been saved by the later AW races - it wasn't such a great start to the day.

Still, our Banker's Bet won and we've made a profit on the Place Betting Strategy.

I do apologise for no morning news for the last 2 days - I've had some new neighbours (holidaymakers - thankfully gone home now) and whilst I go to bed early, they didn't.

Thus, I didn't sleep so well and, as a result, was too grumpy to do the morning news.

I really don't understand why people have to enjoy themselves and make a noise doing so when they are on holiday!

Goodness - I'm starting to sound like Victor Meldrew, aren't I?

Must be a sign of old age!

Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 23.68%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 23.68%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 23.81% from all 42 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 104.23 units returned to 113 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -7.76%

Top Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the top rated horses from 38 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 28.4 units returned to 38 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -25.26%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the second rated horses from 37 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 30.33 units returned to 37 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -18.03%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the third rated horses from 38 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 45.5 units returned to 38 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 19.74%

Forecasts

There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Wolverhampton (AW) 19:05:00 - The CSF paid £17.78

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Nottingham 17:20:00 - The CSF paid £4.80

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 7 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Nottingham 14:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £82.20

Brighton 14:55:00 - The Trifecta paid £10.20

Punchestown 15:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £33.50

Nottingham 17:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £9.70

Wolverhampton (AW) 19:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £5.10

Lingfield (AW) 19:55:00 - The Trifecta paid £4.60

Wolverhampton (AW) 20:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £8.50

Winners

From the 38 rated races there were 22 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 8 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Brighton	13:50	Sayesse (2)	9.00	10.02
Nottingham	14:00	Siri (8)	10.00	12.75
Brighton	14:20	Fairy Mist (5)	7.50	8.35
Brighton	15:30	King Crimson (3)	6.00	6.00
Nottingham	15:35	Mirsaalah (6)	7.00	9.50
Punchestown	17:30	Gods Own (4)	10.00	11.50
Lingfield (AW)	18:50	Mr Bossy Boots (3)	7.00	7.37
Lingfield (AW)	19:25	Aragon Knight (1)	7.00	7.60

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = All Weather Bankers - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 86% and the Horse\'s Confidence is greater than 150% and the Forecast Starting Price was less than 3.1

Selection = Back to ISP - Wolverhampton (AW) - 19:40:00 - Hakam (2)

Races (over last year): 30 Wins: 18 Strike Rate: 60.00% ROI: 115.80% AV SP: 1.93

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £47.40

Hakam won @ 4/9 ISP (1.58 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

1). Nottingham 14:00 - Siri - Place Bet - Betfair paid 2.60 for the place.

Place Betting Strategy

Nottingham 14:00:00 - Siri - 1st - Betfair paid 2.6 for the place.
Bath 16:30:00 - Apache Song - Unplaced
Wolverhampton 19:05:00 - Broughtons Fancy - 1st - Betfair paid 2.17 for the place.

We made a profit of 1.6315 points on the day and have made a profit of 65.58 points for April.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 3.643911 points on the day and have made a profit of 59.815872 points for April.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a profit of 1.6315 points yesterday and we have made a profit of 56.069244 points for April.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSApril.xls

Something to make you laugh

Classroom Stories

A teacher told her young class to ask their parents for a family story with a moral at the end of it, and to return the next day to tell their stories.

In the classroom the next day, Joe gave his example first, "My dad is a farmer and we have chickens.

One day we were taking lots of eggs to market in a basket on the front seat of the truck when we hit a big bump in the road; the basket fell off the seat and all the eggs broke.

The moral of the story is not to put all your eggs in one basket."

"Very good," said the teacher.

Next, Mary said, "We are farmers too. We had twenty eggs waiting to hatch, but when they did we only got ten chicks.

The moral of this story is not to count your chickens before they're hatched."

"Very good," said the teacher again, very pleased with the response so far.

Next it was Barney's turn to tell his story: "My dad told me this story about my Aunt Karen.... Aunt Karen was a flight engineer in the war and her plane got hit.

She had to bail out over enemy territory and all she had was a bottle of whisky, a machine gun and a machete.""Go on," said the teacher, intrigued.

"Aunt Karen drank the whisky on the way down to prepare herself; then she landed right in the middle of a hundred enemy soldiers.

She killed seventy of them with the machine gun until she ran out of bullets.

Then she killed twenty more with the machete till the blade broke.

And then she killed the last ten with her bare hands."

"Good heavens," said the horrified teacher, "What did your father say was the moral of that frightening story?"

"Stay away from Aunt Karen when she's been drinking..."

Today

Today's early test ratings show 43 rated races from seven meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards