Morning News

Good morning...

Well, when I get it wrong, I get it really wrong.

Yesterday morning I said that I didn't have high hopes for yesterday's racing...

The high number of handicaps worried me.

So, a 36.84% strike rate (for our top rated horse) astounded me and...

Just look at the return from the combination trifectas.

If you had done the forecast in every race you would have had £52.09 returned to £35.00 staked.

Our First Page Strategy selection won and...

We made a profit for our Place Betting Strategy meaning that we've now made 66 points profit for the month.

Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 36.84%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 35%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 34.88% from all 43 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 90.25 units returned to 111 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -18.69%

Top Rated Horse - There were 14 winners from the top rated horses from 38 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 44.95 units returned to 38 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 18.29%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the second rated horses from 35 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 23.3 units returned to 35 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -33.43%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 38 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 22 units returned to 38 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -42.11%

Forecasts

There were 6 forecasts yesterday.

Lingfield (AW) 14:05:00 - The CSF paid £7.68

Lingfield (AW) 15:45:00 - The CSF paid £7.93

Lingfield (AW) 16:45:00 - The CSF paid £4.68

Punchestown 18:05:00 - The CSF paid £17.88

Fontwell 19:00:00 - The CSF paid £8.51

Bangor-on-Dee 19:50:00 - The CSF paid £5.41

Reverse Forecasts

There were 4 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Chepstow 14:50:00 - The CSF paid £6.91

Lingfield (AW) 16:15:00 - The CSF paid £6.61

Fontwell 17:55:00 - The CSF paid £30.81

Punchestown 19:45:00 - The CSF paid £5.97

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Lingfield (AW) 16:45:00 - The Trifecta paid £12.60

Bangor-on-Dee 19:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £16.50

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 4 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Chepstow 14:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £103.00

Lingfield (AW) 15:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £208.30

Lingfield (AW) 16:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £12.90

Fontwell 17:55:00 - The Trifecta paid £804.70

Winners

From the 40 rated races there were 23 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 4 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Chepstow	14:15	Distant High (6)	8.50	8.43
Musselburgh	15:05	Ellaal (6)	6.00	7.50
Chepstow	17:05	Cosette (4)	8.00	9.88
Fontwell	17:55	Vaillant Creek (9)	9.00	11.20

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

1). Chepstow 14:50 - Snan - Win Bet - Betfair paid 1.54 for the place.

Place Betting Strategy

Lingfield 14:05:00 - Ubla Unplaced
Chepstow 14:50:00 - Blenheim Warrior - Unplaced
Fontwell 17:55:00 - Valiant Creek - 1st - Betfair paid 3.47 for the place.
Punchestown 18:05:00 - O O Seven - 2nd - Betfair paid 3.61 for the place.
Punchestown 18:40:00 - Alamein - Unplaced
Fontwell 20:05:00 - Alexander the Grey - Unplaced

We made a profit of 0.826 points on the day and have made a profit of 66.061 points for April.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 3.154056 points on the day and have made a profit of 61.77936 points for April.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a profit of 3.154056 points yesterday and we have made a profit of 57.234048 points for April.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSApril.xls

Something to make you laugh

Another one from David O.

DID YOU JUMP?

A young woman joined the army and signed up with the paratroopers.

She went through the standard training, completed the practice jumps from higher and higher structures, and finally went to take her first jump from an airplane.

The next day she called home to tell her mother the news.

"So, did you jump?" asked the mother.

“Well let me tell you what happened” the girl said.

“We got up in the plane and the sergeant opened up the door and asked for volunteers. About a dozen people got up and just walked out of the plane.”

“Is that when you jumped?” asked her mother.

“Uh, no. The sergeant started to grab the other men one at a time and throw them out the door.”

”Did you jump then?” asked her mother.

“I’m getting to that. Everyone else had jumped and I was the last one left on the plane. I told the sergeant that I was too scared to jump. He told me to get off the plane or he’d kick my butt.”

“So did you jump?"

“No. He tried to push me out of the plane but I grabbed onto the door and refused to go. Finally he called over the Jump Master. The Jump Master is this great big guy about six-foot six, and 280 pounds. He said to me “Are you gonna jump or not?"

I said "No sir, I’m too scared.”

“So the Jump Master pulled down his zipper and took out his Johnson. I swear Mom it was about ten inches long and big around as a baseball bat! He said ‘Either you jump out that door or I’m sticking this bad boy right up your ass.'”

“So, did you jump?” asked her mother.

“Well, a little at first.”

Today

Today's early test ratings show 47 rated races from seven meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards