Morning News

Good morning...

Yesterday was a bank holiday over here in France.

And so I took the day off.

In between BBQ and beer and general lounging around, I did take a few peeks at the results coming in.

I had the feeling that it would be a good day and the morning results show that to be so.

What a stonking day!

Had you done the forecast in every race you would have had £53.40 returned to £38.00 staked.

Had you done the trifecta in every race you would have had £140.36 returned to £38.00 staked.

Our Banker's Bet won and...

We made a profit from our PBS selections.

And, to top it all, our top rated horse won 43.9% of all races.

Roll on the next Bank Holiday is all that I can say!

It's next Sunday, by the way, so let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 43.9%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 42.86%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 41.86% from all 43 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 111.65 units returned to 120 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -6.96%

Top Rated Horse - There were 18 winners from the top rated horses from 41 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 62.78 units returned to 41 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 53.12%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the second rated horses from 38 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 22.75 units returned to 38 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -40.13%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 41 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 26.12 units returned to 41 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -36.29%

Forecasts

There were 5 forecasts yesterday.

Chester 16:55:00 - The CSF paid £26.93

Clonmel 18:30:00 - The CSF paid £2.64

Carlisle 18:40:00 - The CSF paid £5.46

Carlisle 19:10:00 - The CSF paid £6.83

Wincanton 19:50:00 - The CSF paid £11.54

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Chester 14:40:00 - The CSF paid £6.77

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Chester 16:55:00 - The Trifecta paid £137.56

Clonmel 18:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £2.80

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Winners

From the 43 rated races there were 27 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 7 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Chester	14:10	Dark Red (8)	6.50	7.64
Uttoxeter	15:00	Loughalder (10)	5.50	6.00
Uttoxeter	15:30	Bertie Lugg (4)	8.00	9.20
Chester	16:55	Justice Angel (8)	6.50	7.39
Newton Abbot	17:05	What A Scorcher (1)	11.00	12.93
Wincanton	17:50	Crookstown (3)	5.50	5.69
Clonmel	19:30	Mademoiselle Penny (1)	5.50	6.34

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = Irish Logic - where R4 Status = 1 and the Horse\'s Average R4 is greater than 4.0 and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and where Position last time out = Unplaced and where Country = IRE and Horse was NOT a Course Winner and Horse was NOT a Distance Winner

Selection = Back to ISP - Clonmel - 17:30:00 - Escape Paradise (5)

Races (over last year): 9 Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 44.44% ROI: 191.54% AV SP: 4.31

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £82.40

Escape Paradise won @ 7/4 ISP (2.99 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

1). Uttoxeter 13:30 - Vinniewhitefoot - Place Bet - Unplaced

2). Uttoxeter 14:00 - Wotzizname - Win Bet - 1st @ 2.97 BSP.

3). Newton Abbot 14:20 - Whipcord - Win Bet - Unplaced

Place Betting Strategy

Uttoxeter 13:30:00 - Vinniewhitefoot - Unplaced
Newton Abbot 16:30:00 - Key to Milan - 2nd - Betfair paid 2.93 for the place.
Uttoxeter 16:40:00 - Eloped - 3rd - Betfair paid 4.92 for the place.
Uttoxeter 17:15:00 - Clanville Lass - Unplaced
Carlisle 18:40:00 - Fieldsofsilk - Unplaced
Carlisle 20:40:00 - Charmant - 3rd - Betfair paid 2.94 for the place.

We made a profit of 4.4005 points on the day and have made a profit of 1.48 points for May.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 4.152411 points on the day and have made a profit of 2.877093 points for May.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a profit of 4.152411 points yesterday and we have made a profit of 3.381525 points for April.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSMay.xls

Something to make you laugh

Rat Experiment

At a recent convention of biological scientists, one researcher remarked to another, "Did you know that we have switched from rats to lawyers for experiments in our lab?"

"Really?" replied the other researcher. "Why the switch?"

"There were a number of reasons," the first researcher explained.

"First, our lab assistants don't become so attached to them.

Second, lawyers breed much quicker, making them far more plentiful.

Third, animal rights groups have no objection to their torture and fourth, there are some things even a rat won't do."

Today

Today's early test ratings show 51 rated races from eight meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards