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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Yesterday was an interesting day for me.

I've finally got the first stage of the computations for the Speed Ratings finished and should be able to publish Standard Times later today.

It was also nice reading the emails form people who took advantage of Sunday's Banker's Bet.

As far as the ratings are concerned, it was also a good day with enough winners to keep me happy,

And some of them at nice prices.

And, whilst you wouldn't have made a profit by blindly backing every top three rated horse yesterday...

We came pretty close with £72.19 returned for a cost of £79 (should you have backed every top three rated horse to £1 stakes.)

I'm guessing that if you had used Betfair, blindly backing all the top three rated horses would have been profitable.

So, let's look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 30.77%.

And that's put a nice big smile on my face.

Just to remind you, my target for the ratings is to hit a 30% strike rate for the top rated horse and an 80% strike rate for the top three rated horses.

Forecasts

There were three forecasts yesterday.

Musselburgh 13:30 - The CSF paid £14.39

Thurles 14:25 - The CSF paid £3.38

Musselburgh 15:00 - The CSF paid £5.19

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were no tricats/trifectas yesterday.

Winners

From the 26 rated races there were 17 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - six of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Wolverhampton 12:50 Tango Sky 6.0 6.71
Musselburgh 14:00 Claude Carter 8.0 9.73
Thurles 14:55 Zipporah 8.0 8.67
Lingfield 15:10 Join the Navy 7.0 7.72
Thurles 15:25 Hard Bought 7.0 7.2
Thurles 15:55 Honey's Joy 9.0 9.4

Comments...

Here's the actual review of some of the races...

1). Musselburgh 13:30 - We got the Forecast in this race. The CSF paid £14.39

2). Wolverhampton 14:20 - We got the first three horses in this race - unfortunately in the wrong order.

3). Thurles 14:25 - We got the Forecast in this race. The CSF paid £3.38

4). Musselburgh 15:00 - We got the Forecast in this race. The CSF paid £5.19

5). Musselburgh 15:30 - We got the first three horses in this race - unfortunately in the wrong order.

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet yesterday (nor a Chancer's Bet.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any Other Business

Speed Ratings - I have finally completed the first stage of the computations required for the speed ratings. Later on today I hope to be able to show Standard Times for every course broken down by distance, going and class.

I am initially going to concentrate on the All Weather races as they are going to be easier for me.

In any case, we have a few months before we have to start worrying about Flat racing.

For every horse I shall then be able to show its Average Speed for a course, over a distance on the specific going and in that class.

I shall also be able to show the horse's last race Average Speed for the same criteria - this will show if a horse is getting faster or slowing down.

This will be expressed (on the ratings) something like 9.84+ (and I'm just making that number up) which would show the horse's Average Speed (as seconds per furlong) at that course, over that distance, over that going in that class. The plus symbol would show that the horse is getting faster.

Now, I'm not sure what help this will give us but it's certainly worth doing.

Then, somehow, I shall try to generate a generic overall Speed Rating for each horse for Code and Going.

Once that is done I shall have to do a lot of analysis to discern the relationship between that number and the horse's R4 rating.

Today

Today's 4am ratings show 18 races from 3 meetings.

The Bumper at Bangor is unrated.

Bangor on Dee 13:10 - Initially, Fascino Rustico (our top rated horse) looks good with a confidence level of 137.39% and a drop in class. However, he hasn't run for 270 days and has changed trainer since then. He is the trainer's only horse at Bangor and is the trainer's only ride there. Overall, something looks a bit wrong and, although I hope to be proved wrong (which means that the ratings are right), I just don't have a nice warm feeling about this race. I suppose that the one thing that worries me is that, in his 5 races last year/season, he fell twice; only finishing 60% of the races that you start doesn't bode well, at least to my eyes. But then, what do I know about horse racing.

It's hard to find anything to say when you only have 18 races to play with. The only other race that has anything to tell me is...

Sedgefield 14:30 - Our top rated horse, Kalimantan, is moving up in class but has previously been placed in Class 3. He has a confidence level of 125.81% and Oddschecker shows him as the 17/11 favourite. I feel far happier about the ratings for this race (compared to the 13:10 at Bangor.)

I'm going to be hammering on with the Speed Ratings today but also want to try and knock off some of the Winter Upgrades as well.

So, as always...

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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