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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Another interesting day yesterday as it was another one of those days where you could have blindly backed every top three rated horse and...

Made a level stakes profit.

Betting £1 on every top three rated horse would have cost you £53 and would have returned £55.23.

Now, I wouldn't advise anyone to do that but...

It is another way of my measuring the accuracy of the ratings.

Anyway, let's look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25%.

Nothing to shout about but...

Nothing to worry about either.

Forecasts

There were two forecasts yesterday.

Sedgefield 13:30 - The CSF paid £8.72

Bangor on Dee 14:10 - The CSF paid £9.69

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was one trifecta yesterday.

Sedgefield 14:00 - the Trifecta paid £31.80

Winners

From the 16 rated races there were 13 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - six of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Southwell 12:50 Brassbound 6.5 7.4
Sedgefield 14:00 Zazamix 5.5 6.0
Sedgefield 15:00 Master Rajeem 5.5 6.33
Bangor on Dee 15:10 Final Assault 5.5 5.91
Southwell 15:20 Trust Me Boy 6.0 6.4
Southwell 15:50 General Tufto 5.5 6.6

I don't know what the above tells us...

Apart from the fact that,

Statistically, the ratings work better at Race Courses that start with the letter S.

I'm joking about that..

I think!

Comments...

Here's the actual review of some of the races...

1). Bangor on Dee 13:10 – Yesterday I mentioned that... "Initially, Fascino Rustico (our top rated horse) looks good with a confidence level of 137.39% and a drop in class. However, he hasn’t run for 270 days and has changed trainer since then. He is the trainer’s only horse at Bangor and is the trainer’s only ride there. Overall, something looks a bit wrong and, although I hope to be proved wrong (which means that the ratings are right), I just don’t have a nice warm feeling about this race. I suppose that the one thing that worries me is that, in his 5 races last year/season, he fell twice; only finishing 60% of the races that you start doesn’t bode well, at least to my eyes. But then, what do I know about horse racing."

I was wrong to worry about the ratings for this race as Fascino Rustico won the race at 3.25.

2). Southwell 12:50 - We got the first three horses in this race - unfortunately in the wrong order.

3). Sedgefield 13:30 - We got the Forecast in this race. The CSF paid £8.72

4). Sedgefield 14:00 - We got the first three horses in this race - in the right order! The Trifecta paid £31.80

5). Bangor on Dee 14:10 - We got the Forecast in this race. The CSF paid £9.69

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet yesterday (nor a Chancer's Bet.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any Other Business

Speed Ratings - As I mentioned yesterday...

The first stage of the computations has been completed and I've got some numbers.

The task of explaining them to you was beyond me yesterday.

I'll have another go today.

Today

Today's 7am ratings show 22 races from 4 meetings.

Two of the 24 races are unrated.

Ludlow 15:00 - Our top rated horse, Father Edward, has a confidence level of 194.28% and has got Tony McCoy sitting on top of him. The other top three rated horses are both dropping in class and are their respective trainers only horses at the meeting. However, the ratings look right to me and the market seems to agree as Father Edward is the favourite. Having said that, I sometimes get the feeling that you could sit A.P. McCoy on top of Dennis the Three Legged Donkey and the nag would be favourite - especially if Dennis the Donkey was trained by Willie Mullins. Or, am I starting this horse racing thing a little bit?

Ludlow 13:30 - And, speaking of Tony McCoy, I've just noticed that our top rated horse in this race, Swivel, is dropping 2 classes and has got Tony McCoy sitting on top of him. He is the favourite (according to Oddschecker) and the ratings look pretty right to me. His rating today is less than his average rating but I feel that dropping two classes outweighs that.

Nothing else stands out.

Finally, I do apologise for the lateness of this Morning News today but...

The bed was just so warm!

So, as always...

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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