Morning News

Good morning...

A few of you noticed that, yesterday, the site was unavailable for 46 minutes and 42 seconds at lunchtime.

Although I'm still waiting to hear from the hosting company, I believe that it was due to a firewall issue in the data center.

I apologise for any inconvenience that this may have caused.

However, it does highlight the need for a secondary site where you can download the ratings from should the main site be unavailable. I shall be implementing that this weekend.

Currently, the morning ratings email shows the links (in the new format) to the ratings above my signature and the links to the ratings in the old format below my signature.

This will change and, from the weekend, the links below my signature will point to the back up site.

It's very rare that we have problems with the server but...

When we do it can be quite stressful!

It's almost enough to drive a man to drink!

Anyway, enough of the technical stuff...

Let's look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 13.64%.

A pretty poor figure, it has to be said.

Forecasts

There were no forecasts yesterday.

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was one tricast yesterday.

Lingfield 14:50 - the Tricast paid £44.07

Winners

From the 22 rated races there were 10 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - two of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Taunton	15:10	Pull the Chord	6.0	7.2
Kempton	17:40	Brigliadoro	5.5	5.92

Comments...

Here's the actual review of some of the races...

1). Lingfield 14:50 – We got the first three in the right order in this race. The Tricast paid £44.07

2). Lingfield 15:50 – We got the first three in this race - unfortunately not in the right order.

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet yesterday (but not a Chancer's Bet.)

Bankers Bet = AW High RC2 Handicaps - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Handicap Race and the Race\'s RC2 is greater than 60% and Runners was equal to or less than 8

Selection = Back to ISP - Lingfield (AW) - 13:20:00 - Matraash (2)

Races (over last year): 18 Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 22.22% ROI: 146.87% AV SP: 6.61%

Matraash came second.

Stan emailed me to point out that Matraash was running at less than his average R4 and thus, should be avoided (he went on to suggest Sir Valentino in the 2:00 at Ludlow instead.)

This is something that I have never thought of but it makes sense, if a horse is running at less than his average R4, he is probably running in the wrong race.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any Other Business

Speed Ratings - I was a bit pre-occupied, yesterday, with the server problems but...

However, I have been doing the initial analysis on the Standard Times that I have generated.

I need to statistically define which of the factors (going, class, handicap or not, distance and month of the year) affect the Standard Times for All Weather races.

I expect to finally publish the data this afternoon.

Today

Today's 3am ratings show 27 races from 4 meetings.

Every race today is rated.

Catterick 13:10 - Our top rated horse, Ebony Express, has a confidence level of 115.7% and is the Jockey's only ride at the meeting and the Trainer's only horse at the meeting.

However, he has won twice this season and (if I am right about this) is carrying an extra 14lbs as a result. Now, I'm pretty sure that the ratings take that into account so it's a bit of a surprise that he is top rated. Looking more closely, he is rated at higher than his average R4 and the other two top three rated horses are running at lower than their average ratings.

The racing at Wolves looks incredibly tight with the highest confidence level of only 105.75%

And that's pretty much all that I can say about today's ratings.

So, as always...

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards