Morning News

Good morning...

Another great day for the ratings with a 29.73% strike rate for the top rated horse.

Our First Page Strategy did well and 6.9825 points (after commission) was returned to 4 points staked.

Had you done the forecast in every race you would have walked away with a profit.

Come to think about it...

Had you done the reverse forecast in every race you would also have walked away with a profit.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.73%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 30.23%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25.53% from all 47 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 90.32 units returned to 115 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -21.46%

Top Rated Horse - There were 11 winners from the top rated horses from 37 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 36.24 units returned to 37 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -2.05%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 10 winners from the second rated horses from 39 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 43.58 units returned to 39 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 11.74%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 39 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 10.5 units returned to 39 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -73.08%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 17 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 4 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 23.53%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 9.5 units returned to 17 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -44.12%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 17 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 10 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 58.82%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Beverley 19:45:00 - The CSF paid £7.31

Wexford 20:20:00 - The CSF paid £45.04

Reverse Forecasts

There were 5 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Newton Abbot 14:10:00 - The CSF paid £7.02

Doncaster 15:05:00 - The CSF paid £3.50

Haydock 18:30:00 - The CSF paid £11.29

Wexford 19:20:00 - The CSF paid £6.14

Beverley 20:45:00 - The CSF paid £18.04

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 4 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Sandown 16:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £12.10

Beverley 18:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £30.20

Haydock 18:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £24.30

Wexford 19:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £20.50

Winners

From the 44 rated races there were 24 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 4 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Newton Abbot	16:50	Strumble Head (7)	5.50	5.90
Bellewstown	18:05	Tribal Path (6)	6.00	7.11
Bellewstown	19:05	Jembatt (9)	6.50	6.59
Beverley	20:45	Poppy In The Wind (2)	8.50	10.79

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = High priced Beaten Favs on the Flat - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse was a Beaten Favourite and the Forecast Starting Price was more than 7.5

Selection = Back to ISP - Doncaster - 14:30:00 - Withhold (14)

Races (over last year): 12 Wins: 3 Strike Rate: 25.00% ROI: 283.25% AV SP: 11.33

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £219.90

Withhold was unplaced.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

1). Newton Abbot 14:10 - Bannys Lad - Win Bet - 1st @ 3.42 BSP.

2). Doncaster 14:30 - Marmelo - Place Bet - 1st @ 2.06 BSP.

3). Newton Abbot 14:40 - Tamarillo Grove - Place Bet - Unplaced

4). Doncaster 15:05 - Dubka - Win Bet - 1st @ 1.87 BSP.

A total of 6.9825 (after commission) returned to 4 points staked.

Place Betting Strategy

Newton Abbot 14:10:00 - Asknotwhat - Unplaced
Doncaster 14:30:00 - London Prize - Unplaced
Doncaster 17:15:00 - All Hawraa - Unplaced
Bellestown 17:35:00 - Yamato - Unplaced
Wexford 18:20:00 - De Danus Bach - Unplaced
Wexford 18:50:00 - Abbazagga - 3rd - Betfair paid 2.64 for the place
Haydock 20:00:00 - Servo - Unplaced
Haydock 21:00:00 - Throckley - 1st - Betfair paid 1.86 for the place

We made a loss of 3.625 points on the day and have made a loss of 3.625 points for July.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 3.5595 points on the day and have made a loss of 3.5595 points for July.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 3.311352 points and we have made a loss of 3.311352 points for July.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSJuly16.xls

Something to make you laugh

Ice Cream Parlor

A little old man shuffled slowly into the 'Orange Dipper', an ice cream parlor in Naples , and pulled himself slowly, painfully, up onto a stool.

After catching his breath he ordered a banana split.

The waitress asked kindly, 'Crushed nuts?'

'No,' he replied, 'hemorrhoids'

Today

Today's early test ratings show 50 rated races from seven meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards