Morning News

Good morning...

Another reasonable day, yesterday.

The strike rate for the top rated horse in non-handicap races was 36.36% and, if you had blindly backed those horses you would have made a nice 83% profit on your investment.

I'm still struggling with the spreadsheet to see if there's an identifiable strategy to benefit from the non-handicap races.

I can come up with strategies assuming that we level stake the top three rated horses but that's not really dutching and to use live prices (from the Live Ratings) retrospectively is, to say the least...

A challenge.

Anyway, I'll get there, for now let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 22.86%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 22.22%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 22.22% from all 36 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 91.04 units returned to 103 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -11.61%

Top Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the top rated horses from 35 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 30.83 units returned to 35 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -11.91%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the second rated horses from 35 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 32.33 units returned to 35 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -7.63%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 27.88 units returned to 33 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -15.52%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 11 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 4 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 36.36%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 20.13 units returned to 11 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, 83%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 11 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 7 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 63.64%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Catterick 14:50:00 - The CSF paid £4.93

Yarmouth 15:10:00 - The CSF paid £2.18

Reverse Forecasts

There were 1 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Catterick 15:20:00 - The CSF paid £14.66

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Catterick 14:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £17.80

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 combination tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Lingfield (AW) 17:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £74.50

Winners

From the 36 rated races there were 17 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 6 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Yarmouth	14:40	Sandy Cove (8)	9.00	10.50
Yarmouth	15:40	Yorkindred Spirit (1)	10.00	12.12
Yarmouth	16:10	Heisman (7)	7.00	7.99
Kempton (AW)	19:15	Rajar (6)	15.00	28.58
Kempton (AW)	19:45	Mister Bob (6)	11.00	14.71
Bath	20:00	Zephyros (3)	9.00	11.43

First Page Strategy

1). Lingfield 14:00 - Tiggaliscious - Win Bet - Unplaced

2). Yarmouth 14:10 - Kody Ridge - Place Bet - Unplaced

3). Yarmouth 14:10 - Affordability - Place Bet - Unplaced

4). Lingfield 14:30 - Ciel Rouge - Place Bet - Unplaced

5). Catterick 14:50 - Swashbuckle - Place Bet - 2nd @ 1.64 BSP.

A total of 1.558 points returned to 5 points staked.

So far this month we have had 15.017 points (after commission) returned to 18 points staked.

Place Betting Strategy

Pontefract 16:10:00 - Sautter - Unplaced
Roscommon 18:00:00 - Siberian Vixen - Unplaced
Brighton 18:10:00 - Eolian - Unplaced
Roscommon 19:00:00 - Ben Button - NR
Roscommon 20:30:00 - Laogg Beag - Unplaced

We made a loss of 4 points on the day and have made a loss of 11.699 points for July.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 3.39 points on the day and have made a loss of 9.694044 points for July.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 2.712 points and we have made a loss of 8.69535 points for July.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSJuly16.xls

Something to make you laugh

Weight Loss

There is an overweight guy who is watching TV.

A commercial comes on for a guaranteed weight loss of 10 pounds in a week.

So the guy, thinking what the hell, signs up for it. Next morning an incredibly beautiful woman is standing at his door in nothing but a pair of running shoes and a sign about her neck that reads, "If you can catch me, you can have me."

As soon as he sees her, she takes off running.

He tries to catch her, but is unable.

This continues for a week, at the end of which, the man has lost 10 pounds.

After this he tries the next weight loss plan, 15 pounds in a week.

The next morning an even more beautiful woman is standing at the door, in similar conditions.

The same happens with her as the first woman, except he almost catches her. This continues for a week, at the end of which he, as suspected, weighs 15 pounds less.

Excited about this success, he decides to do the master program.

Before he signs up, he is required to sign a waiver and is warned about the intensity of this plan.

Still he signs up.

The next morning, waiting at the door, is a hulking 300 pound muscle man with nothing but a pair of running shoes, a raging erection, and a sign around his neck that says, "If I catch you, you're mine!"

The man was supposed to lose 25 pounds in the week; he lost 34.

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 38 rated races from six meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards