Morning News

Good morning...

An acceptable day, yesterday.

But very good for the non-handicap races.

The top rated horse in non-handicap races returned a profit of 12.4% from a 33.33% strike rate.

And a blistering day for the First Page Strategy.

We had 9.2625 points returned (after commission) to 3 points stake.

So far this month we have had 24.2795 points (after commission) returned to 21 points staked.

I am continuing my work on a possible dutching strategy but I have a couple questions that I need to resolve...

1). Regardless of the ratings, when would you choose to duct two horses rather than three?

2). Is it right to avoid dutching very small and very large races?

Anyway, time to get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 22.5%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 22.5%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 21.43% from all 42 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 98.55 units returned to 115 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -14.3%

Top Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the top rated horses from 40 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 31.61 units returned to 40 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -20.97%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 12 winners from the second rated horses from 37 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 46.03 units returned to 37 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 24.41%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 38 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 20.91 units returned to 38 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -44.97%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 15 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 5 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 33.33%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 16.86 units returned to 15 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, 12.4%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 15 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 10 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 66.67%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Doncaster 17:05:00 - The CSF paid £4.55

Newbury 19:00:00 - The CSF paid £12.28

Reverse Forecasts

There were 5 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Doncaster 14:20:00 - The CSF paid £17.42

Carlisle 15:00:00 - The CSF paid £10.19

Epsom 18:40:00 - The CSF paid £4.83

Epsom 19:10:00 - The CSF paid £13.48

Newbury 20:05:00 - The CSF paid £2.69

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Carlisle 15:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £2.70

Epsom 19:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £20.20

Winners

From the 40 rated races there were 26 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 3 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Newmarket - July	14:10	Housesofparliament (5)	5.50	5.64
Newmarket - July	15:45	Dancing Star (9)	8.00	9.12
Leopardstown	19:55	Aared (1)	6.50	5.76

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

1). Carlisle 14:00 - Confessional - Win Bet - 1st @ 4.7 BSP.

2). Doncaster 14:50 - Act Of Freedom - Win Bet - Unplaced.

3). Carlisle 15:00 - Emerald Loch - Win Bet - 1st @ 5.05 BSP.

A total of 9.2625 points (after commission) returned to 3 points staked.

So far this month we have had 24.2795 points (after commission) returned to 21 points staked.

Place Betting Strategy

Doncaster 14:50:00 - Reinstorm - Unplaced
Doncaster 15:25:00 - Tadaawol - NR
Carlisle 16:40:00 - Bongrace - Unplaced
Leopardstown 18:20:00 - Gabardine - 3rd - Betfair paid 2.39 for the place
Newbury 18:30:00 - King's Heart - Unplaced
Newbury 20:05:00 - Coeur de Lion - Unplaced

We made a loss of 2.6795 points on the day and have made a loss of 12.9895 points for July.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 0.921402 points on the day and have made a loss of 11.29548 points for July.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 0.921402 points and we have made a loss of 9.765234 points for July.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSJuly16.xls

Something to make you laugh

Trip to Australia

So two Irishmen are traveling to Australia.

Before they leave home, one of their dads gives them both a bit of advice: "You watch them Aussie cab drivers. They'll rob you blind. Don't you go paying them what they ask. You haggle."

At the Sydney airport, the Irishmen catch a cab to their hotel.

When they reach their destination, the cabbie says, "That'll be twenty dollars, lads."

"Oh no you don't! My dad warned me about you. You'll only be getting fifteen dollars from me," says one of the men.

"And you'll only be getting fifteen from me too," adds the other.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 54 rated races from eight meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards