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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Not a very exciting day for us, yesterday but...

Our Banker's Bet won at a reasonable price and we also made a slight profit on our Place Betting Strategy.

Summer seems to have finally arrived here in Brittany (the forecast is 33 degrees for Tuesday) and so I'm going to be taking some time off this weekend and relax a bit.

Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 18.18%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 17.02%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 16.33% from all 49 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 111.03 units returned to 132 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -15.89%

Top Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the top rated horses from 44 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 22.78 units returned to 44 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -48.23%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the second rated horses from 42 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 57.5 units returned to 42 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 36.9%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 46 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 30.75 units returned to 46 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -33.15%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 14 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 5 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 35.71%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 10.03 units returned to 14 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -28.36%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 14 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 9 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 64.29%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Nottingham 17:05:00 - The CSF paid £4.17

Hamilton 18:40:00 - The CSF paid £4.04

Reverse Forecasts

There were 3 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Haydock 16:25:00 - The CSF paid £15.79

Newmarket - July 18:50:00 - The CSF paid £9.46

Pontefract 20:35:00 - The CSF paid £37.53

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Nottingham 17:05:00 - The Trifecta paid £11.30

Combination Trifectas

There was 1 combination tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Haydock 16:25:00 - The Trifecta paid £34.60

Winners

From the 47 rated races there were 21 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 7 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Nottingham 13:50 Second Nature (8) 17.00 38.00
Haydock 16:25 Snan (2) 6.50 7.16
Kilbeggan 18:20 Lady Of Portlairge (11) 11.00 12.74
Kilbeggan 19:25 Oisin James (7) 5.50 5.70
Hamilton 19:40 Orions Bow (6) 7.50 9.60
Pontefract 20:35 Intrigue (1) 17.00 24.14
Hamilton 21:15 Henpecked (2) 6.50 7.40

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = 5 Furlong Flyers - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 80% and where Country = UK and Runners was equal to or less than 12 and the Race Distance was equal to or less than 5 Furlongs and Horse was a Favourite, Joint Favourite or a Co Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Newmarket - July - 19:20:00 - Monsieur Joe (3)

Races (over last year): 8 Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 50.00% ROI: 146.00% AV SP: 2.92

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £36.80

Monsieur Joe won @ 7/2 (5.03 BSP.)

Chancers Bet = Flat Apprentice - not April - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is an Apprentice Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and where Country = UK and the Month is May or the Month is June or the Month is July or the Month is August or the Month is September or the Month is October and the Horse\'s R4 is greater than 3.5

Selection = Back to ISP - Newbury - 17:15:00 - Pettochside (1)

Races (over last year): 69 Wins: 16 Strike Rate: 23.19% ROI: 117.57AV SP: 5.07

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £121.20

Pettochside came 2nd.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

Here are today's selections...

1). Nottingham 13:50 - Second Nature - Place Bet - 1st @ 3.93

2). Newbury 14:00 - Asaas - Win Bet - Unplaced

3). Nottingham 14:20 - Melaniemillie - Win Bet - Unplaced

4). Haydock 14:40 - Mjjack - Win Bet - Unplaced

A total of 3.7335 points returned to 4 points staked.

So far this month we have had 39.8215 points (after commission) returned to 43 points staked.

Place Betting Strategy

Nottingham 13:50:00 - Second Nature - 1st @ 3.93 BSP.
Newbury 14:00:00 - Salouen - Unplaced
Nottingham 16:05:00 - Straw Hat - Unplaced
Kilbeggan 17:50:00 - Keady Lady - Unplaced
Kilbeggan 18:20:00 - Lady of Portlairg - 1st @ 2.9 BSP.
Newmarket 20:25:00 - Tenerezza - Unplaced

We made a profit of 0.5885 points on the day and have made a loss of 2.3865 points for July.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 2.286216 points on the day and have made a loss of 0.150516 points for July.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a profit of 2.964216 points and we have made a profit of 0.462057 points for July.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSJuly16.xls

Something to make you laugh

Hair Cut

A young boy had just gotten his driver's permit and enquired of his father, if they could discuss his use of the car.

His father said, "I'll make a deal with you. You bring your grades up from a C to a B average, study your Bible a little, get your hair cut and we'll talk about the car."

Well, the boy thought about that for a moment, and settle for the offer, and they agreed on it.

After about six weeks they went in to the study, where his father said, "Son, I've been real proud. You've brought your grades up, and I've observed that you have been studying your Bible, and participating a lot more in the Bible study groups. But, I'm real disappointed, since you haven't gotten your hair cut."

The young man paused a moment, and then said, "You know, Dad, I've been thinking about that, and I've noticed in my studies of the Bible that Samson had long hair, John the Baptist had long hair, Moses had long hair and there's even a strong argument that Jesus had long hair also."

To this his father replied, "Did you also notice they all walked everywhere they went?"

Today

Today's early test ratings show 55 rated races from eight meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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