Morning News

Good morning...

Yesterday seemed to be a day of near misses.

As can be seen by the high number of combination tricasts and reverse forecasts.

However, in the non-handicap races we did pretty well...

With a strike rate of 46.15% in the non-handicap races you would have made 38.62% profit on investment by blindly backing the top rated horse in every non-handicap race.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 23.68%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 20.93%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 22.92% from all 48 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 92.87 units returned to 122 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -23.88%

Top Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the top rated horses from 38 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 31.77 units returned to 38 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -16.39%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 11 winners from the second rated horses from 44 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 34.3 units returned to 44 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -22.05%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 40 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 26.8 units returned to 40 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -33%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 13 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 6 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 46.15%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 18.02 units returned to 13 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, 38.62%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 13 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 13 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 100%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Yarmouth 14:10:00 - The CSF paid £8.91

Leopardstown 21:05:00 - The CSF paid £7.61

Reverse Forecasts

There were 6 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Sandown 14:30:00 - The CSF paid £11.76

Worcester 16:00:00 - The CSF paid £2.55

Yarmouth 17:25:00 - The CSF paid £8.76

Limerick 18:10:00 - The CSF paid £4.49

Doncaster 19:25:00 - The CSF paid £6.57

Newbury 19:40:00 - The CSF paid £1.38

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Yarmouth 14:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £39.50

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 6 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Sandown 14:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £38.90

Sandown 15:05:00 - The Trifecta paid £22.50

Yarmouth 16:25:00 - The Trifecta paid £73.00

Limerick 17:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £5.10

Newbury 19:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £1.20

Doncaster 19:55:00 - The Trifecta paid £18.90

Winners

From the 43 rated races there were 25 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 6 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Sandown	14:30	Parliamentarian (2)	8.00	10.35
Sandown	15:40	Goodwood Mirage (1)	6.50	8.14
Sandown	16:10	Jimenez (1)	6.50	8.41
Yarmouth	16:25	Thecornishbarron (5)	7.50	7.89
Sandown	16:45	Able Jack (3)	8.00	9.60
Yarmouth	16:55	Fang (6)	7.00	7.40

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = Unique Jockey and Trainer - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and where Position last time out = Unplaced and Horse was NOT a Course Winner and Horse was NOT a Distance Winner and Horse had a Unique Jockey and Horse had a Unique trainer and Horse has NOT changed in Class

Selection = Back to ISP - Yarmouth - 15:50:00 - Overlord (1)

Races (over last year): 12 Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 33.33% ROI: 162.65% AV SP: 4.88

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £75.20

Overlord came 3rd.

Chancers Bet = High priced Beaten Favs on the Flat - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse was a Beaten Favourite and the Forecast Starting Price was more than 7.5

Selection = Back to ISP - Leopardstown - 18:30:00 - Specific Gravity (7)

Races (over last year): 13 Wins: 2 Strike Rate: 15.38% ROI: 199.94AV SP: 13.00

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £130.00

Specific Gravity was unplaced.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

1). Worcester 13:50 - Alanjou - Place Bet - 2nd @ 2.67

2). Sandown 14:00 - Her Terms - Win Bet - 2nd

3). Yarmouth 14:10 - Grey Britain - Win Bet - 2nd

4). Worcester 14:20 - Queens Bay - Win Bet - Unplaced

5). Yarmouth 14:40 - Gabrielle - Win Bet - Non Runner

A total of 2.5365 points returned to 4 points staked.

So far this month we have had 71.238 points (after commission) returned to 62 points staked.

Place Betting Strategy

Doncaster 18:50:00 - Wondeful Life - Unplaced
Limerick 19:45:00 - Marvellous Moment - Unplaced

We made a loss of 2 points on the day and have made a profit of 2.813 points for July.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 2.034 points on the day and have made a profit of 0.515958 points for July.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 2.034 points and we have made a profit of 3.402543 points for July.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSJuly16.xls

Something to make you laugh

One from Dave C.

Not Hungry?

A woman asks her husband at breakfast time, "Would you like some bacon and eggs, a slice of toast, and maybe some grapefruit juice and coffee?"

He declines.

"Thanks for asking, but, I'm not hungry right now. - It's this Viagra," he says. "It's really taken the edge off my appetite."

At lunchtime, she asks him if he'd like something.

"How about a bowl of soup, homemade muffins, or a cheese sandwich?"

He declines. "The Viagra," he says, "really trashes my desire for food."

Come dinner time, she asks if he wants anything to eat.

"Would you like a juicy rib eye steak and some scrumptious apple pie? - Or maybe a rotisserie chicken, or tasty stir fry?"

He declines again. "No," he says, "it's got to be the Viagra. I'm still not hungry."

"Well," she says, "Would you mind getting off me? I'm starving...."

Today

Today's early test ratings show 55 rated races from eight meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards