Morning News

Good morning...

Well, not all that much that I can say about yesterday.

The overall strike rate wasn't anything to write home about and the only thing that stands out is the reverse tricast that we got in the The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

Actually, we did do rather well with reverse trifectas yesterday, with some pretty high prices.

Mike R. emailed me to mention that I made a mistake yesterday and wrongly marked down a winner for our Place Betting Strategy as a loser - I have amended the details on the spreadsheet.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 22%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25.45%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 20% from all 55 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 109.09 units returned to 156 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -30.07%

Top Rated Horse - There were 11 winners from the top rated horses from 50 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 29.3 units returned to 50 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -41.4%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the second rated horses from 53 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 28.29 units returned to 53 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -46.62%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the third rated horses from 53 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 51.5 units returned to 53 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -2.83%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 18 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 4 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 22.22%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 4.95 units returned to 18 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -72.5%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 18 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 11 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 61.11%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Newmarket - July 14:35:00 - The CSF paid £7.83

York 16:10:00 - The CSF paid £36.50

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Gowran Park 14:40:00 - The CSF paid £3.25

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 7 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Gowran Park 14:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £2.60

Chester 15:25:00 - The Trifecta paid £32.80

Chester 16:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £63.30

Ascot 16:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £25.90

Salisbury 17:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £32.70

Salisbury 19:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £16.90

Salisbury 20:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £174.30

Winners

From the 55 rated races there were 28 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 5 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Newmarket - July	15:45	Mont Kiara (6)	6.50	7.46
York	16:10	Kimberella (3)	5.50	6.60
Lingfield	19:40	Clever Bob (3)	6.00	7.00
Lingfield	20:10	Remember Me (9)	6.00	8.31
Salisbury	20:20	Ower Fly (1)	17.00	27.42

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = Flat Big Field Maiden Favs - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Runners was equal to or more than 16 and Horse was a Favourite, Joint Favourite or a Co Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Gowran Park - 14:05:00 - Winter (16)

Races (over last year): 24 Wins: 11 Strike Rate: 45.83% ROI: 129.24% AV SP: 2.82

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £70.20

Winter came third.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

1). Newcastle (AW) 13:50 - Drochaid - Win Bet - 2nd

2). York 13:55 - Come On Percy - Place Bet - Unplaced

3). Newmarket - July 14:00 - Glendun - Place Bet - NR

4). Chester 14:15 - Poets Society - Win Bet - Unplaced

A total of 0 points returned to 4 points staked.

So far this month we have had 74.297 points (after commission) returned to 70 points staked.

Place Betting Strategy

York 13:55:00 - Come on Percy - Unplaced
Newmarket 14:00:00 - Glendun - NR
Gowran 15:15:00 - Lorendano - Unplaced
Salisbury 18:50:00 - Eolian - Unplaced
Salisbury 19:20:00 - Catchment - 2nd @ 1.74
Lingfield 19:40:00 - Clever Bob - 1st @ 2.12

We made a loss of 1.233 points on the day and have made a profit of 7.4125 points for July.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 1.470582 points on the day and have made a profit of 3.804936 points for July.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 1.947216 points and we have made a profit of 5.91216 points for July.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSJuly16.xls

Something to make you laugh

25 Signs You've Grown Up:

Your house plants are alive, and you can't smoke any of them.

Having sex in a twin bed is out of the question.

You keep more food than beer in the fridge.

6:00 AM is when you get up, not when you go to bed.

You hear your favorite song on an elevator.

You watch the Weather Channel.

Your friends marry and divorce instead of hook up and break up.

You go from 130 days of vacation time to 14.

Jeans and a sweater no longer qualify as "dressed up."

You're the one calling the police because those damn kids next door won't turn down the stereo.

Older relatives feel comfortable telling sex jokes around you.

You don't know what time Taco Bell closes anymore.

Your car insurance goes down and your payments go up.

You feed your dog Science Diet instead of McDonalds leftovers.

Sleeping on the couch makes your back hurt.

You no longer take naps from noon to 6 PM.

Dinner and a movie is the whole date instead of the beginning of one.

Eating a basket of chicken wings at 3 AM would severely upset, rather than settle, your stomach.

You go to the drug store for ibuprofen and antacid, not condoms and pregnancy tests.

A $4.00 bottle of wine is no longer "pretty good stuff."

You actually eat breakfast food at breakfast time.

"I just can't drink the way I used to," replaces, "I'm never going to drink that much again."

90% of the time you spend in front of a computer is for real work.

You no longer drink at home to save money before going to a bar.

You read this entire list looking desperately for one sign that doesn't apply to you!!!

Today

Today's early test ratings show 21 rated races from three meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards