Morning News

Good morning...

Well, another blistering day, yesterday.

That makes it five 30% plus strike rate days out of the last 6 days.

We did OK at the Ebor Festival at York yesterday as well,

We had 3 top rated winners (and one 2nd) from the 6 races.

And, for the First Page Strategy we more than doubled our stakes.

I shall be watching today's racing for the last day of the festival and will be trying to work out how to "Plug the Gaps" - in other words, trying to work out why we get some races so horribly wrong.

So, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 38.46%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 39.53%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 33.33% from all 45 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 108.62 units returned to 120 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -9.48%

Top Rated Horse - There were 15 winners from the top rated horses from 39 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 58.23 units returned to 39 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 49.31%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the second rated horses from 42 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 24.51 units returned to 42 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -41.64%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 39 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 25.88 units returned to 39 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -33.64%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 20 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 8 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 40%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 23.73 units returned to 20 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, 18.65%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 20 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 14 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 70%

Forecasts

There were 3 forecasts yesterday.

Bangor-on-Dee 16:30:00 - The CSF paid £3.29

Wolverhampton (AW) 20:20:00 - The CSF paid £1.85

Killarney 20:25:00 - The CSF paid £2.63

Reverse Forecasts

There were 3 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Bangor-on-Dee 14:10:00 - The CSF paid £6.77

Killarney 17:20:00 - The CSF paid £39.28

Killarney 17:55:00 - The CSF paid £5.25

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Bangor-on-Dee 16:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £2.50

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 combination tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Sandown 15:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £20.80

Winners

From the 45 rated races there were 27 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 6 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
York	13:55	Barsanti (1)	6.00	6.30
Sandown	14:55	Babyfact (11)	7.00	8.00
York	16:55	Arcanada (2)	6.00	7.40
Wolverhampton (AW)	18:20	Mount Cheiron (3)	5.50	5.90
Salisbury	19:05	Montataire (4)	8.00	9.40
Kilbeggan	19:40	Stonehall Jack (10)	11.00	13.65

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

1). Bangor-on-Dee 14:10 - Moonday Sun - Win Bet - 1st @ 4.60

2). Bangor-on-Dee 14:45 - Skylark Lady - Win Bet - Unplaced.

A total of 4.37 points returned to 2 points staked.

So far this month we have had 60.3915 points (after commission) returned to 54 points staked.

Place Betting Strategy

Sandown 15:30:00 - Calibration - 2nd @ 1.35
Kilbeggan 17:10:00 - Legal Procedings - Unplaced
Salisbury 18:05:00 - Debonaire David - Unplaced
Killarney 18:25:00 - Sevilla - Unplaced
Kilbeggan 20:10:00 - Carlito's Bay - Unplaced
Killarney 20:25:00 - Fugitive Motel - Unplaced

We made a loss of 4.6675 points on the day and have made a loss of 18.3775 points for August.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 4.520565 points on the day and have made a loss of 11.255478 points for August.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 3.39 and we have made a loss of 11.373789 points for August.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSAug16.xls

Something to make you laugh

Too Drunk
A man walks into the front door of a bar. He is obviously drunk, and staggers up to the bar, seats himself on a stool and, with a belch, asks the bartender for a drink. The bartender politely informs the man that it appears that he has already had plenty to drink, he could not be served additional liquor at this bar, and could a cab be called for him?

The drunk is briefly surprised, then softly scoffs, grumbles, climbs down off the bar stool and staggers out the front door. A few minutes later, the same drunk stumbles in the SIDE door of the bar. He wobbles up to the bar and hollers for a drink. The bartender comes over and, still politely - but more firmly, refuses service to the man due to his inebriation, and again offers to call a cab. The drunk looks at the bartender for a moment angrily, curses, and shows himself out the side door, all the while grumbling and shaking his head.

A few minutes later, the same drunk bursts in through the back door of the bar. He plops himself up on a bar stool, gathers his wits and belligerently orders a drink. The bartender comes over and emphatically reminds the man that he is clearly drunk, will be served no drinks, and either a cab or the police will be called immediately.

The surprised drunk looks at the bartender, and in hopeless anguish, cries "Man! How many bars do you work at?"

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards