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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Yesterday was definitely a day for the non-handicaps.

Had you blindly backed every top rated horse in every non-handicap race you would have doubled your money.

Whereas, had you blindly backed the top rated horse in evry race you would have only made a profit on your stakes of 28.4%

Speed Ratings

For those of you who use the speed ratings;

From today I shall not be sending them out to you as I usually do. Instead, you can access them from the normal ratings email - it is option 19 on the normal ratings email.

This means that I have one less task to do every day and one less thing to forget to do.

Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 17.5%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 19.05%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 16.28% from all 43 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 128.28 units returned to 122 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 5.15%

Top Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the top rated horses from 40 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 51.36 units returned to 40 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 28.4%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 11 winners from the second rated horses from 40 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 50.17 units returned to 40 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 25.43%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the third rated horses from 42 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 26.75 units returned to 42 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -36.31%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 15 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 5 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 33.33%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 30.86 units returned to 15 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, 105.73%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 15 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 11 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 73.33%

Forecasts

There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Ascot 15:10:00 - The CSF paid £2.40

Reverse Forecasts

There were 5 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Kilbeggan 16:40:00 - The CSF paid £12.92

Musselburgh 16:50:00 - The CSF paid £2.88

Musselburgh 17:50:00 - The CSF paid £3.53

Musselburgh 19:20:00 - The CSF paid £7.36

Musselburgh 19:50:00 - The CSF paid £47.79

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 4 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Kilbeggan 16:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £36.80

Musselburgh 16:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £2.60

Musselburgh 19:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £17.50

Kempton (AW) 19:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £36.20

Winners

From the 42 rated races there were 24 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 8 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Haydock 14:45 Moonlit Show (7) 13.00 18.71
Haydock 15:55 Orient Class (15) 8.50 11.08
Newcastle (AW) 17:05 Cool Strutter (1) 13.00 18.65
Kilbeggan 17:40 Crosshue Boy (2) 7.00 6.61
Kilbeggan 19:10 Heist (7) 7.50 9.00
Kempton (AW) 19:30 Soul Silver (2) 9.00 11.28
Musselburgh 19:50 Thornaby Princess (7) 6.50 8.00
Kempton (AW) 20:30 Fern Owl (4) 11.00 12.30

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = High priced Beaten Favs on the Flat - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse was a Beaten Favourite and the Forecast Starting Price was more than 7.5

Selection = Back to ISP - Ascot - 14:00:00 - Syncopation (8)

Races (over last year): 13 Wins: 2 Strike Rate: 15.38% ROI: 126.89% AV SP: 8.25

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £35.00

Syncopation was unplaced.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

Newcastle (AW) 13:50 - Oh So Dandy - Place Bet - Unplaced
Ascot 14:00 - Desert Sport - Place Bet - Unplaced
Haydock 14:10 - Mary Anne Evans - Win Bet - 1st @ 5.08
Ascot 14:35 - Staintondale Lass - Place Bet - Unplaced
Haydock 14:45 - Foxcatcher - Place Bet - Unplaced
Newcastle (AW) 14:55 - Shine Likeadiamond - Win Bet - 2nd

A total of 4.826 points returned to 6 points staked.

So far this month we have had 7.5715 points (after commission) returned to 10 points staked.

Place Betting Strategy

Haydock 14:45:00 - Foxcatcher - Unplaced
Kempton Park 19:30:00 - Soul Silver - 1st @ 3.05

We made a profit of 0.9475 points on the day and have made a profit of 0.8095 points for September.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 2.605215 points on the day and have made a profit of 3.774087 points for September.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a profit of 2.605215 and we have made a profit of 3.774087 points for September.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSSep16.xls

Something to make you laugh

New Cell Phone

The place where I work decided to provide company-paid cell phones to the "suits" upstairs. After negotiating a deal with a cell phone company, we arranged for the phones to be sent to the homes of the various VIP's.

The day after delivery, I received a call from a partner screaming about how his cell phone didn't work. He said he charged it overnight just like the sheet said, but in the morning, it wouldn't power up.

I asked EXACTLY what he did with the phone when he got it.

"I took it out, plugged the charger into the wall and into the phone."

"Did you put the battery in the phone?"

"Not the extra one."

"Sir, the phone only came with one battery."

(Pause) "Oh, I think I figured out what's wrong with it."

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Today

Today's early test ratings show 49 rated races from seven meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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