Morning News

Good morning...

Yesterday, I mentioned that "Plumpton 13:20 - Our top rated horse, Jebril, has a confidence level of 122.53% and has a going win and two going places to his credit. He is dropping 3 classes and is currently the favourite. His rating for today is 66% higher than his average rating."

Jebril came fourth and, as a result, I would suggest that, if I ever mention any specific horse again, just lay the nag!

Honestly, I try my best but...

The ratings aren't infallible and, as I keep trying to remind you,

I really do know nothing about horse racing.

My skills have more to do with computer programming and data analysis/mathematics.

Having said that, with the lower number of races this time of the year, I am going to try to take one race a day and analyse it in more detail in order to show how the ratings may offer you ways to focus on the real contenders....

Which, after all, is what I envisaged when I started the ratings.

I'm not too sure how well that's going to work out but I'm willing to give it a go.

Having said that, let's look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 35.71%.

I feel very happy about that.

Forecasts

There was one forecast yesterday.

Plumpton 13:55 - The CSF paid £7.86

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were two tricats/trifectas yesterday.

Wolverhampton 14:55 - the Trifecta paid £33.80

Wolverhampton 13:55 - the Tricast paid £35.15

Now, I not going to mention that if you had bet £1 on the Tricast/Trifecta on every race, you'll have ended up getting about £70 back for an outlay of £14.

Winners

From the 14 rated races there were 8 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - 2 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Plumpton	13:20	Like Sully	11.0	13.5
Wolverhampton	15:55	Quality Art	5.5	6.04

Comments...

Here's the actual review of some of the races...

1). Plumpton 13:55 – We got the forecast in this race. The CSF paid £7.86

2). Wolverhampton 14:55 – We got the first three in this race, in the right order - The Trifecta paid £33.80

3). Wolverhampton 13:55 – We got the first three in this race, in the right order - The Tricast paid £33.15

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet yesterday and a Chancer's Bet.

There were both the same horse (but, using different systems.)

Bankers Bet = AW Handicap Claimers - Season Proper - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Claimer and where the Race is a Handicap Race and the Month is January or the Month is February or the Month is March or the Month is April or the Month is October or the Month is November or the Month is December

Selection = Back to ISP - Wolverhampton (AW) - 14:20:00 - Naoise (1)

Races (over last year): 16 Wins: 6 Strike Rate: 37.50% ROI: 192.38% AV SP: 5.13%

Chancers Bet = AW High RC2 Handicaps - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Handicap Race and the Race\'s RC2 is greater than 60% and Runners was equal to or less than 8

Selection = Back to ISP - Wolverhampton (AW) - 14:20:00 - Naoise (1)

Races (over last year): 19 Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 21.05% ROI: 139.14% AV SP: 6.61%

Naoise came fifth.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's 4am ratings show 12 races from 2 meetings.

So, another very quiet day.

As I've explained, I'm going to take a look at one race a day to show you how I'd use the ratings if I were a betting man (and knew anything about horse racing.)

And, as there is a slight lack of choice today, I am picking the first race of the day.

Fakenham 13:05

Please click on the image to see it full size; it should open in a new tab.

You'll probably notice that my early morning test ratings are in a slightly different format to the normal ratings; I find them easier to read like that and I'm currently doing some work on the success rate of the 4th rated horse (who often seems to win when one of the top three becomes a non-runner.)

So, what stands out to my non horse racing eyes?

1). There are a lot of Unique Jockeys and Trainers in this race.

2). Only 11 of the 14 horses have a rating.

3). A.P. McCoy is riding the 3rd rated horse and it's his only ride at Fakenham.

4). The top rated horse has a confidence level of 176.43%

5). The second rated horse is running at a rating which is 63.9% of it's average rating.

6). The top rated horse is dropping two classes since its last race but, then again, our third rated horse (Tony McCoy's ride) is dropping three classes since its last race. In fact, all but two of the eleven rated horses are dropping in class.

7). The top two rated horses have been places three times on the expected going (the going may change in the next 11 hours, though.)

8). Oddschecker shows that the market doesn't agree with the ratings.

Please click on the image to see it full size; it should open in a new tab.

9). Apart from the top rated horse, it looks quite a tight race as eight of the eleven rated horses have a confidence level of better than 75%.

10). Apart from the top rated horse, all of the other rated horses have a rating of less than 3.0 (in theory, the average horse in a race has a rating of 3.0.)

11). Our eighth rated horse, Choral Bee, hasn't run in 10 months.

12). Our third rated horse comes from a stable where the Trainer has a Win Percentage (for rated races) of 38%.

Conclusions...

To my eyes, it looks like Zip Top may be over bet because Tony McCoy is riding him (and you'd have to go pretty far into the jungle to find someone who hasn't heard of Tony McCoy.)

And, anyway, Zamoyski is currently at a very attractive price (Oddschecker has him at 6/1.)

As you can see, the Builder shows that Top Rated horses which have last run in the last 42 days, has a confidence level of greater than 170% and have dropped two classes tend to win 62% of the time. However, they normally do so at a far lower price than is on offer today.

Does that say that we should avoid Zamoyski or is it a Value bet; I'm not sure.

Our results show that about 55% of all races are won by a top three rated horse (and 25% of all Maiden Hurdles are won by the top rated horse.)

My gut instinct is that the ratings look right to me (but I would say that, wouldn't I) and the race will probably be won by a top three rated horse.

I'd cut Shwaiman (our second rated horse) as he is running at about 64% of his average rating.

That makes it a two horse race (according to the ratings.)

So, will it be Zamoyski (with a massive confidence level of 176.43%) or will it be Zip Top (the favourite who is being ridden by A.P. McCoy) who wins the race?

Well, I'm not sure but, based upon what the Builder tells us about top rated horses who have that level of confidence, and because of the price on offer, Zamoyski would get my vote.

The one nagging issue is A.P. McCoy - there has to be a reason why Zip Top is his only ride today.

However, Parisienne Walkways is currently playing on my media player and, thus, our eleventh rated horse, Majestic Sun, is bound to win as he is trained by Gary Moore (who may not actually be the late great Thin Lizzy guitarist.)

It's a sign!

You see, I'm finally getting to grips with this horse racing game!

So, as always...

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards