Morning News

Good morning...

Yesterday, I did some analysis on the first race of the day and...

Predictably, I got it wrong!

One of the members has shown me his analysis of the same race and he has used the same data to get the right result.

I would share his view here but I need to get his permission first.

In my defense, I will say that the ratings changed between 4am and 5am.

However, I certainly am missing a trick or two with my analysis of them.

Even though the strike rate for the top rated horse wasn't so good yesterday, it was still one of those weird days when you could have blindly backed every top three rated horse (to £1 stakes) in every race and...

You would have had £48.25 returned for an outlay of £36!

So, in one way, not such a bad day after all.

Anyway, let's look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 16.67%.

Not such a happy number..

Forecasts

There were no forecasts yesterday.

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were no tricats/trifectas yesterday.

Winners

From the 12 rated races there were 8 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - 4 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Southwell	13:15>	Amenable	7.5	8.11
Southwell	13:45	General Tufto	10.0	11.0
Fakenham	14:05	Todd	7.0	7.78
Southwell	14:15	Bannister Bell	9.0	10.46

Comments...

With no forecasts or tricasts yesterday (and no non-runners), I'm really at a loss to say anything about the 12 races yesterday.

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet (nor a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's 4am ratings show 23 races from 2 meetings.

As I've explained, I'm going to take a look at one race a day to show you how I'd use the ratings if I were a betting man (and knew anything about horse racing.)

And, as I got the first race of the day wrong yesterday, I am picking one race at random and have come up with the following...

Newcastle 14:40

Please click on the image to see it full size; it should open in a new tab.

You'll probably notice that my early morning test ratings are in a slightly different format to the normal ratings; I find them easier to read like that and I'm currently doing some work on the success rate of the 4th rated horse (who often seems to win when one of the top three becomes a non-runner.)

So, what stands out to my non horse racing eyes?

1). Our top rated horse, Steel Summit, has a confidence level of 159.26% and today's rating is 45% higher than its average rating.

2). Steel Summit has some great recent form. Now, that means a 14lbs penalty but (and you can't get this from the ratings, yet) his Jockey has a 10lb allowance.

3). Steel Summit likes the predicted going as he has one win and one place over the going.

4). I can rate every horse in the race.

5). Six of the nine runners have an R4 of greater than 3.0 (in theory, the rating for the average horse in a race) and confidence levels of 75% or more.

6). The market seems to agree with the top rated horse.

Please click on the image to see it full size; it should open in a new tab.

7). Our sixth rated horse, King's Chorister, is a course, distance and going winner.

Conclusions...

With a confidence level of 159.26% it's very hard to ignore Steel Summit, especially as he's the odds on favourite.

Yes, I know that he's carrying a a 14lb penalty but his jockey's 10lb allowance sort of mitigates that.

He has shown that he can win over the going and seems quite happy in the class with 2 class wins and 1 class place.

Please click on the image to see it full size; it should open in a new tab.

A quick check on the Builder shows that, over the last year, there have been seven similar races and the top rated horse won five of those.

That's enough for me.

Tomorrow...

There will be no Morning News tomorrow as I have to kick off a big query to generate a data set for the Speed Ratings. I need to get an early start on that.

I may be able to get out a quick summary if there is anything good to say about today.

So, as always...

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards