Morning News

An incredible start to the day yesterday!

In the first six rated races we got...

Two forecasts...

One reverse forecast...

One tricast...

One top rated winner and...

One race where we got first, second and third - unfortunately, not in the right order.

As the day progressed things went a bit downhill but it still ended up ending quite being quite a respectable day.

And I love days when we start out well.

It sort of gives me the confidence to carry on and do the analysis that I need to do.

Yesterday's Results

An average day, yesterday, as can be seen from the Results.

A strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 25% is pretty normal.

I do get the feeling that we tend to do better with the early races (when my forecast prices are more accurate) - you might want to thing about that; I certainly am.

Forecasts

There were two forecasts yesterday.

Leicester 12:45 The CSF paid £9.95

Plumpton 13:30 The CSF paid £1.85

Tricast

Plumpton 13:00 The Trifecta paid £8.10

Winners

From the 20 rated races there were 5 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - Four of them were at reasonable prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Leicester	12:45	Announcement	5.0	7.2
Leicester	13:15	Craftybird	9.0	13.13
Wolverhampton	14:40	More Drama	6.50	7.2
Wolverhampton	16:10	My Son Max	7.27	13.83

Comments...

Noting amazing stands out from the ratings...

Apart, that is, from the incredible start to the day.

I really must do that analysis on the Live Ratings to see how much more accurate they are.

The Portfolio

There was a Bankers Bets yesterday (although no Chancers Bet.)

Bankers Bet = AW High RC2 Handicaps

where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Handicap Race and the Race\'s RC2 is greater than 60% and Runners was equal to or less than 8

Selection = Back to ISP - Wolverhampton (AW) - 16:10:00 - Best Trip (4)

Races (over last year): 18 Wins: 6 Strike Rate: 33.33% ROI: 181.65%

Unfortunately, I somehow forgot to remember to email Best Trip to let him know that we were all expecting big things from him and, as a result, he didn't do big things.

My fault!

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

Dutching

Thank you all for the emails that I received yesterday about Dutching.

I'm getting a far better feel about how to approach Dutching now.

I've got loads of data to work with but, my ideas, so far (and this isn't very scientific) is that I should concentrate on races with a specific range of field sizes (early indicators show that races with between 7 and 10 runners are the most profitable) where there is a decent range of prices and there is something to differentiate the top three horses from the rest of the pack.

I also need to remove some of the silly races (such as Amateur Races.)

Then, I just need to find that Focus Ratings specific metric that pulls it all together.

You know, we're not just talking about Dutching horses, we're talking about Dutching horses that are pre-qualified (they're the Focus Ratings top three rated horses) and that's an advantage that the rest of the betting market doesn't have.

As I mentioned yesterday, I shall start a series of articles about my search to find a Dutching Strategy; and I really do welcome your feedback and advice.

I've said it many times but, unfortunately, it is true...

I really do know nothing about horse racing!

Looking back on some of my earlier wafflings about Dutching I now realise that I know very little about it but...

With your help I'm learning more every day.

Winter Schedule

We're now moving very close to that time when I start doing some of the upgrades that you have asked for.

Sometime in the next week, I'll produce a list of what is going to be implemented and when.

There have been a lot of requests and I have to do them in a certain order.

Also, I need to put in some infrastructure changes to speed up the site and make the morning emails come out earlier.

I've learned the hard way that I can only do one change a day and need to have one day a week off - otherwise it all gets too stressful.

And things go horribly wrong.

Today

Only four meetings today (from my 6am test ratings I make it 23 rated races) and I like that.

And I think that I've just fixed that bug that sometimes means the ratings don't show Wexford races (I have no idea why Focus Ratings doesn't like Wexford so much) but I guess that we'll find out when the ratings come out.

And that's it for today; I've got a massive spreadsheet that I need to start analysing in order to get a grip on Dutching.

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards