Morning News

Good morning...

OK - this is going to be a slightly abbreviated morning news but there is one important thing that I need to say to you...

Voila!

Now that I've got that off my chest I can go back to bed.

You see, I've been at it since 2am (1am UK time) and we finally have prices for the ratings going back to the date of the server upgrade.

And, more importantly, the automated process now works and will almost certainly carry on working until the next server upgrade (which won't happen for at least 2 years.)

I've still got a few little things to tidy up today but I can pick those off one at a time over the next couple of days.

Theses are...

1). Betfair Prices

I need to download the Betfair starting prices and place prices for the last 12 days or so. This is fairly easy but I have decided to go back to the start of 2016 (and once that's done, go back to 2013) and download the prices for all horses for that period.

At the moment I only collect the Betfair prices for the top three rated horses but, for you layers, you'd probably want to know the price of the fourth rated horse (or the fifth.)

The logic is as follows: If the top rated horse wins 25% of all races, the second rated horse wins 20% of all races and the third rated horse wins 15% of all races - that means that the remaining horses share a 40% chance of winning the race.

Assuming that it's a 10 horse race, that means that the remaining seven non-rated horses each have a theoretical 5.7% chance of winning the race (and, thus, being a loser for a laying system.)

It seems to me that you'd have a far better chance of picking a potentially successful lay bet from a non-rated horse. That's why you need the prices so that you can test out your strategy with real numbers rather than just a strike rate.

2). Traffic Light Results files

I need to re-visit the Traffic Light Results files to get the traffic lights right for those races where we have a joint winner and, thus, a second but no third.

The creation of these Traffic Light Results files have been moved to an earlier spot and will now show up on the Morning News (as well as on the daily ratings email) once I have automated that.

3). Zero priced winners

For some strange reason, sometimes when a horse wins at 2.0 (evens, in other words) the price is shown as 0.0

I need to fix that.

4). EarlyBird Preview Ratings

As promised, I shall be addin some more formats to the EarlyBird Preview ratings whilst still keeping the current ones.

5). Catch up on emails

Boy, have I got behind on my emails over the last 2 weeks!

I'll start catching up on them from tomorrow.

By the way, if there is Guinness Book of Records entry for how much coffee you can drink through the night to stop yourself falling asleep at the keyboard...

I think that I've pretty much won that one.

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 17.65%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 0%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 15% from all 20 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 40.55 units returned to 53 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -23.49%

Top Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the top rated horses from 17 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 11.38 units returned to 17 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -33.06%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the second rated horses from 18 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 6.6 units returned to 18 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -63.33%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 18 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 22.57 units returned to 18 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 25.39%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 4 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 0 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 0%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 0 units returned to 4 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -100%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 4 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 2 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 50%

Something to make you smile...

Obviously, now that the server problems are almost over, I do have an urgent need to severely chastise my server. This I shall do in the time honoured way...

By giving a good hard thrashing!

Two New Laws...

In my mature years, I’m finally beginning to understand the Bible!

For those who haven’t heard, the State of Washington just passed two new laws:

* Same-sex Marriage
* Legalized Marijuana

The fact that same-sex marriage and marijuana were legalized on the same day makes perfect biblical sense because Leviticus 20:13 says:

"If a man lies with another man they should be stoned."

I just hadn’t interpreted it correctly before.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards