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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Whilst yesterday was a reasonably good day...

It wasn't quite as impressive as Monday (or the Monday before.)

However, had you blindly backed the top rated horse in every race you would have made a slight profit and, had you stuck to the non-handicap races you would have made a profit on your stakes of 35.1%

I know that I promised you an update on our various strategies today (and, hopefully, every Thursday) but...

The dog ate the cat and the cat had already eaten my homework!

Seriously, I sort of got a bit distracted with some figures that I was looking at and, before I knew it, the day was lost.

The figures that I was looking at were those concerning the performance of the top rated horse at Kempton in the All Weather races.

Did you know that if you blindly back the top rated horse in every race at Kempton when the going is Standard to Slow you make a level stakes profit of 13%

If you look closely at the results it becomes obvious that all the profit comes from those races where the Race Type 2 is Handicap.

Just concentrate on those races (there are about 100 a year) where RC0 is 3 (in other words, I can rate pretty much every horse in the race) and you end up with a strike rate of 26% and a profit on your stakes of 41%.

I only looked at the last 2 years data as I feel that this is more accurate, in many cases, than looking at vast amounts of old data - some of which may not be relevant any more.

I will try to do the strategies update over the weekend.

For more detail, here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.17%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.63%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25% from all 28 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 52.28 units returned to 76 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -31.21%

Top Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the top rated horses from 24 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 24.84 units returned to 24 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 3.5%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the second rated horses from 24 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 11.69 units returned to 24 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -51.29%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 28 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 15.75 units returned to 28 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -43.75%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 6 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 2 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 33.33%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 8.11 units returned to 6 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, 35.17%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 6 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 5 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 83.33%

Forecasts

There were 0 forecasts yesterday.

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Newcastle (AW) 16:00:00 - The CSF paid £6.72

Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Winners

From the 28 rated races there were 15 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 2 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Newcastle (AW) 15:00 Lopes Dancer (3) 7.00 8.40
Haydock 16:10 Purcells Bridge (6) 8.00 8.20

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet ( but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = NH Hurdles Wonders - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Hurdles and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse's last run was less than 14 days ago and RC1 was more than 90% and RC2 was more than 60%

Selection = Back to ISP - Warwick - 14:50:00 - Multiculture (1)

Races (over last year): 19 Wins: 8 Strike Rate: 42.11% ROI: 112.01% AV SP: 2.66

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £22.80

Multiculture won @ 1/9 ISP (1.12 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

Haydock - 14:10:00 - Potters Story (3) - Bet Type = Win Bet - 2nd
Warwick - 14:20:00 - Shanty Town (6) - Bet Type = Win Bet - 3rd
Haydock - 14:40:00 - The Nipper (1) - Bet Type = Win Bet - 1st @ 1.07 BSP
Warwick - 14:50:00 - Argus (3) - Bet Type = Place Bet - NR
Newcastle (AW) - 15:00:00 - Cray (8) - Bet Type = Win Bet - 4th

The results from the 1st of July 2015 may be seen on this spreadsheet... fps_results.csv

Place Betting Strategy

Warwick - 14:50:00 - Sheelbewhatsheelbe (8) - Runners = 8 - 3rd @ 1.61 BSP

The results from the 1st of July 2015 may be seen on this spreadsheet... pbs_results.csv

Something to make you smile...

Accident

"How come you're late?" asked the bartender, as the blonde waitress walked into the bar.

"It was awful," she explained. "I was walking down Elm street and there was a terrible accident. A man was thrown from his car and he was lying in the middle of the street. His leg was broken, his skull wasfractured, and there was blood everywhere. Thank God I took that first-aid course.

"What did you do?" asked the bartender.

"I sat down and put my head between my knees to keep from fainting!"

Today

Today's early test ratings show 35 rated races from five meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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