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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Well, I know that it's been a while since we've had one of these but I'm going to try to make them far more frequent.

I know that we've had some problems with the ratings recently and I am working on them.

However, I fix one thing and three other things go wrong.

Something that I have noticed recently is the performance of the top rated horse on the first page of the ratings.

I know that we've already got a First Page Strategy which is a mix of win bets and place bets - yesterday it returned about 5 points (after commission) for 3 points staked - that's not too bad, really, is it?

Yesterday wasn't a great example but...

5 days a week we make a profit from blindly backing the top rated horse on the first page of the ratings (with no filters or conditions added) - perhaps that something you might want to take a look at.

I'm hoping to have today off - I've been a bit stressilcated recently (no, I'm not sure if that's a real word or not but it does sum up how I feel) and I have sat up all night to try to work out why we don't always get the right Traffic Lights Results PDFs.

Still, from tomorrow I shall be going through the ratings, element by element, to ensure that they are correct - I'll update you on my progress.

I do have to say that the actual ratings (the R4 number) are correct - it's just that sometimes the Race Title is missing (and many other things like that.)

For more detail, here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 26.19%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 28.26%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25% from all 48 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 96.32 units returned to 124 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -22.32%

Top Rated Horse - There were 11 winners from the top rated horses from 42 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 31.57 units returned to 42 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -24.83%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the second rated horses from 43 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 46.25 units returned to 43 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 7.56%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 39 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 18.5 units returned to 39 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -52.56%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 20 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 7 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 35%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 16.92 units returned to 20 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -15.4%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 20 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 10 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 50%

Forecasts

There were 6 forecasts yesterday.

Navan 15:00:00 - The CSF paid £2.37

Bangor-on-Dee 15:05:00 - The CSF paid £4.23

Thirsk 16:30:00 - The CSF paid £3.47

Newmarket 17:00:00 - The CSF paid £5.63

Uttoxeter 17:30:00 - The CSF paid £3.30

Doncaster 18:50:00 - The CSF paid £9.28

Reverse Forecasts

There were 5 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Bangor-on-Dee 13:55:00 - The CSF paid £4.28

Bangor-on-Dee 16:15:00 - The CSF paid £17.25

Navan 16:45:00 - The CSF paid £12.35

Navan 17:15:00 - The CSF paid £20.50

Uttoxeter 18:05:00 - The CSF paid £3.30

Trifectas

There were 2 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Navan 15:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £8.10

Newmarket 17:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £12.90

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Bangor-on-Dee 14:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £11.60

Uttoxeter 18:05:00 - The Trifecta paid £4.80

Winners

From the 46 rated races there were 23 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 6 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Newmarket 14:05 Grey Britain (3) 11.00 12.50
Navan 16:45 Twin Star (10) 7.00 9.25
Doncaster 17:50 Monaco Rose (4) 6.50 7.60
Uttoxeter 18:05 Triptico (3) 7.00 8.33
Uttoxeter 18:35 In The Rough (9) 6.00 7.60
Uttoxeter 19:05 Lilywhite Gesture (6) 6.00 8.20

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

Bangor-on-Dee - 13:55:00 - Lofgren (3) - Bet Type = Win Bet - 1 - 3.08 BSP
Newmarket - 14:05:00 - Grey Britain (3) - Bet Type = Place Bet - 1 - 2.26 BSP
Thirsk - 14:10:00 - Pearl Acclaim (13) - Bet Type = Place Bet - 0

The results from the 1st of July 2015 may be seen on this spreadsheet... fps_results.csv

Place Betting Strategy

Newmarket - 14:05:00 - Grey Britain (3) - Runners = 8 - 1 - 2.26 BSP
Newmarket - 15:15:00 - Eqtiraan (1) - Runners = 10 - 0
Newmarket - 15:50:00 - Villa Tora (10) - Runners = 10 - 3 - 3.45 BSP
Thirsk - 16:30:00 - Nightdress (9) - Runners = 10 - 0
Navan - 16:45:00 - Peace Maker (6) - Runners = 12 - NR
Thirsk - 17:05:00 - Sunrize (8) - Runners = 9 - 0
Bangor-on-Dee - 17:20:00 - Leeswood Lily (6) - Runners = 10 - 0
Newmarket - 17:35:00 - Stake Acclaim (1) - Runners = 11 - 2 - 1.67 BSP
Doncaster - 19:50:00 - Shelneverwalkalone (8) - Runners = 8 - 4

The results from the 1st of July 2015 may be seen on this spreadsheet... pbs_results.csv

Something to make you smile...

Thanks to Lee for this one...

The Confession
Hi Bob,

This is Alan next door. I have a confession to make. I've been riddled with guilt these past few months and been trying to pluck up the courage to tell you to your face, but I am at least now telling you in text as I can't live with myself a moment longer without you knowing. The truth is I have been sharing your wife, day and night when you're not around. In fact probably more than you. I haven't been getting it at home recently, but that's no excuse, I know. The temptation was just too much. I can no longer live with the guilt and I hope you will accept my sincerest apologies and forgive me. It won't happen again. Please suggest a fee for usage, and I'll pay you. Regards, Alan.

The Actions

Bob, feeling insulted and betrayed grabbed his gun, and shot his neighbour dead. He returned home where he poured himself a stiff drink and sat down on the sofa. He took out his phone where he saw he had received a subsequent message from his now deceased neighbour.

The second message

Hi Bob,

This is Alan again. Sorry about the typo on my last text. I expect you figured it out anyway, and that you noticed that darn Auto-correct changed 'wi-fi' to 'wife.' Technology, hey? Regards, Alan.

Once Again - Thanks to Lee for this one...

A retired older couple returned to a Mercedes dealership where the salesman has just sold the car they had been interested in to a beautiful, leggy, busty blonde in a mini skirt and a halter top.

The old man was visibly upset. He spoke to the salesman sharply, "Young man, I thought you said you would hold that car till we raised the £30,000 asking price. Yet I just overheard you closed the deal for £20,000 to the lovely young lady there. And if I remember right, you had insisted there was no way you could discount this model."

The salesman took a deep breath, cleared his throat and reached for a large glass of water.

"Well, what can I tell you? She had the cash ready, didn't need any financing help, and, Sir, just look at her, how could I resist?", replied the grinning salesman sheepishly.

Just then the young woman approached the senior couple and gave the car keys to the old man.

"There you go," she said. "I told you I could get that idiot to lower the price. See you later Dad, Happy Father's day."

Once again....don't mess with seniors.

And, finally, thanks to Lee again...

*Most people today think it is improper to discipline children, so I have tried other methods to control my kids when they have had one of 'those' moments.*

*Since I'm a pilot, one method that I have found very effective is for me to just take the child for a short flight during which I say nothing and give the child the opportunity to reflect on his or her behavior. *

*I don't know whether it's the steady vibration from the engines, or just the time away from any distractions such as TV, video games, computer, iPod, etc. Either way, my kids usually calm down and stop misbehaving after our flight together. *

*I believe that eye to eye contact during these sessions is an important element in achieving the desired results.*

*I've included a photo below of one of my sessions with my son, in case you would like to use the technique.*

*Should work with grandkids too!*

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Today

Today's early test ratings show 34 rated races from five meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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