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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Although we didn't get such a good strike rate yesterday...

There were lots of high priced winners (from the top three rated horses) and it would have been profitable to have blindly done the forecast in every race.

Once again, had you blindly backed every top rated horse in the first 7 races (the first page of the ratings) you would have made a profit - yesterday we would have returned 13 points to 7 points staked (to ISP.)

For more detail, here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25.64%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 22.22%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 21.74% from all 46 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 143.79 units returned to 122 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 17.86%

Top Rated Horse - There were 10 winners from the top rated horses from 39 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 32.54 units returned to 39 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -16.56%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the second rated horses from 41 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 42 units returned to 41 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 2.44%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the third rated horses from 42 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 69.25 units returned to 42 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 64.88%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 13 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 3 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 23.08%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 6.16 units returned to 13 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -52.62%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 13 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 8 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 61.54%

Forecasts

There were 3 forecasts yesterday.

Newcastle (AW) 14:40:00 - The CSF paid £33.62

Hexham 19:15:00 - The CSF paid £10.46

Hexham 19:50:00 - The CSF paid £7.45

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Brighton 17:50:00 - The CSF paid £68.15

Huntingdon 18:35:00 - The CSF paid £12.50

Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 combination tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Hexham 18:45:00 - The Trifecta paid £32.80

Winners

From the 46 rated races there were 22 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 9 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Nottingham 14:00 Green Power (2) 11.00 12.45
Brighton 14:20 Holdenhurst (1) 13.00 15.50
Newcastle (AW) 14:40 Table Manners (5) 11.00 12.39
Brighton 14:50 Pass The Cristal (4) 8.00 7.98
Nottingham 16:00 Envoy (2) 10.00 14.00
Brighton 16:20 Master Of Heaven (7) 11.00 13.00
Brighton 17:50 Perfect Pastime (5) 17.00 25.00
Gowran Park 18:25 Secret Wizard (9) 9.00 11.67
Huntingdon 20:05 The Happy Chappy (7) 17.00 21.36

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = UK Recent Returners - where R4 Status = 1 and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse's last run was less than 14 days ago and the Race's RC1 is greater than 70% and where Position last time out = Winner and where Country = UK and Runners was equal to or less than 12 and the Horse's Confidence is greater than 110% and Horse was NOT a Distance Winner and Horse was NOT a Course and Distance Winner and Horse was a Clear Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Gowran Park - 16:25:00 - Dabulena (2)

Races (over last year): 6 Wins: 5 Strike Rate: 83.33% ROI: 116.66% AV SP: 1.40

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £10.00

Dabulena won @ 10/11 (1.89 BSP)

Chancers Bet = Unique Jockey and Trainer - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and Horse's last run was less than 14 days ago and where Position last time out = Unplaced and Horse was NOT a Course Winner and Horse was NOT a Distance Winner and Horse had a Unique Jockey and Horse had a Unique trainer and Horse has NOT changed in Class

Selection = Back to ISP - Gowran Park - 17:55:00 - Nutini (4)

Races (over last year): 9 Wins: 3 Strike Rate: 33.33% ROI: 122.32AV SP: 3.67

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £20.10

Nutini came 4th

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

First Page Strategy

Nottingham - 14:00:00 - Global Exceed (1) - Bet Type = Win Bet - 3
Brighton - 14:20:00 - Shovel It On (4) - Bet Type = Place Bet - NR

The results from the 1st of July 2015 may be seen on this spreadsheet... fps_results.csv

Place Betting Strategy

Brighton - 14:20:00 - Shovel It On (4) - Runners = 11 - NR
Nottingham - 16:00:00 - Envoy (2) - Runners = 10 - 1 @ 2.81 BSP
Hexham - 17:45:00 - Queen Of Avalon (8) - Runners = 9 - DF

The results from the 1st of July 2015 may be seen on this spreadsheet... pbs_results.csv

Something to make you smile...

You Know It's Time to Diet When...

* You dance and it makes the band skip.

* You are diagnosed with the flesh eating virus, and the doctor gives you 22 more years to live.

* You put mayonnaise on an aspirin.

* You go to the zoo and the elephants throw you peanuts.

* Your driver's license says, "Picture continued on other side."

* You ran away and they had to use all four sides of the milk carton for your picture.

* You learn you were born with a silver shovel in your mouth.

* You could sell shade.

* Your blood type is Ragu.

* You need an appointment to attend an 'open house'.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 40 rated races from six meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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