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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Today I have tried to do a bit more analysis of the individual races,

I can't promise that I can do that every day but yesterday was quite easy with only 2 meetings.

So, what I've tried to do is give you a view of my timeline; as I'm working away on the Speed Ratings but also watching the results come in.

In a way, I'm trying to share my world with you.

Or, at least, what I see why I see the results come in.

Enough said, let's look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 15.38%.

Not a wonderful number but we'll look at the detail in a minute.

And, as promised, the overall profit index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 34.38 units returned to 39 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 88.15%

Forecasts

There were no forecasts yesterday.

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were no tricasts/trifecta yesterday.

Winners

From the 13 rated races there were 8 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - two of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Taunton 14:30 Border Breaker 8.0 8.2
Southwell 15:10 Ian's Memory 6.0 7.2

Comments...

These are the sorts of things that I note, during the day, as the results come in...

1). Taunton 13:30 - There's nothing that I can say about this race. Our top rated horse came third and that's about it.

2). Southwell 13:35 - This race was slightly better in that we got a winner. Our third rated horse, Teajaybe, won at 4.0 ISP (4.4 BSP.)

3). Taunton 14:00 - A little better here as our top rated horse, Kingfisher Creek, won (but only at 1.5 ISP/1.58 BSP.) Our third rated horse came second.

4). Southwell 14:10 - Now, this is an interesting race. Our second rated horse won the race and our third rated horse came second.

5). Taunton 14:30 - A happier race; our third rated horse won the race at 8.0 ISP (8.2 BSP.)

And our second rated horse came second.

At this point, by blindly backing all the top three rated horses to level stakes we would have had 16.75 units returned for a cost of 15 units. Thus a profit - and that's always nice.

And that would have been 18.93 units returned for a cost of 15 units if we were betting to Betfair Starting Price.

So, by 3:30 pm (remember, I'm an hour ahead of you), I was feeling quite happy and confident. Perhaps the high level figures weren't so good (not too many top rate horses winning) but it looked as if the ratings were doing their job.

6). Southwell 14:40 - Our top rated horse won at 4.5 ISP (5.3 BSP.)

This means that, by blindly backing the top three rated horses (to ISP) you would have had 21.25 units returned for 18 units staked.

By doing the same to Betfair SP, you would have had 23.965 units returned for an outlay of 18 units.

Furthermore; yesterday I mentioned this race might be interesting as the top rated horse was also the horse that had the highest Average Rating in the race.

Perhaps there's some mileage in that.

7). Taunton 15:00 - Our third rated horse won at 4.5 ISP (4.8 BSP.) Our second rated horse came third.

Now, by this point, if you had blindly backed the top three rated horse (to equal stakes), you would have had 25.75 units returned to 21 units staked.

By doing the same to Betfair SP, you would have had 28.24 units returned for an outlay of 21 units.

In anyone's books, that's a level stakes profit from blindly backing the top three rated horses.

At this point I was only 2 hours away from Wine O'Clock (remember, I am an hour ahead of you) and I was already planning a little celebration!

8). Southwell 15:10 - Hmm, what can I say about this race. We got the first three (from our top three rated horses) but, unfortunately, not in the right order.

Our second rated horse did come first (at 6.0 ISP/7.2 BSP) and that means...

If you had blindly backed the top three rated horses (to equal stakes), you would have had, by now, 31.75 units returned to 24 units staked.

By doing the same to Betfair SP, you would have had 35.08 units returned for an outlay of 24 units.

Yes, I think that Wine O'Clock is approaching!

9). Taunton 15:30 - Nothing to report about this race apart from the fact that the horse with the highest Average R4 in the race, Tornado in Milan, won at 16/1 (17.52 BSP - Betfair placed at 4.5)

There were 13 races yesterday when there was a clear top on Average R4. Obviously, if you have blindly backed them all to win, you'd have made a profit - more work is needed on this strategy, I think but, first, I need to invent a 25 hour day!

10). Southwell 15:40 - No winner from this race but our top rated horse did come second and our second rated horse came third.

Now, yesterday morning I mentioned that I was interested in horses that were top on Average R4 (especially if they were top on current R4.)

I mentioned that our top rated horse, City of Ankor Wat, was also top rated on Average R4. Now, I know that he wouldn't have been even a speculative bet as the price was too low but, the Betfair place price was 1.29 and that's a profit, even if not much of one.

So far, if we had place bet (on Betfair) the first 3 of the top rated horses that were also top on Av R4 we'd have bet 3 units and have had 5.5 units (assuming a betfair commission of 5%) returned.

In other words, an 83% return on investment in about 3 hours.

And that's a pretty good profit compared to what my building society is paying me.

11). Taunton 16:00 - No great news from this race, I'm afraid. Our second rated horse came third and our third rated horse came second.

Our top rated horse (which was also the top on Average R4) came nowhere but you can't win them all. Seriously, if you were considering Betfair Place Betting the top rated horse in this race you'd have probably swerved this race as there were only 6 runners. And thus, Betfair would have only paid out to two places.

12). Southwell 16:10 - Our third rated horse won at 2.63 ISP (2.78 BSP.)

Our second rated horse came third.

Yesterday I mentioned that our top rated horse was also top rated on Average R4; he came 4th.

13). Taunton 16:30 - In the last race of the day we did nothing. Horrible, terrible and disgusting; I do apologise!

I think that I may have to have a glass of wine to commiserate!

The only thing that I can say in my defense is that the horse with the top Average R4 of the race, Proud Times, came second and paid 5.5 for a Betfair Place.

The Portfolio

There was a Chancer's Bet yesterday (but no Banker's Bet.)

Obviously this is wrong and I have fixed the bug which caused this to happen.

Chancers Bet = High RC2 - AW and NH Hurdles - where R4 Status = 1 and RC2 was more than 95% and the Race Type is All Weather or the Race Type is NH - Hurdles

Selection = Back to ISP - Taunton - 16:30:00 - Un Bleu A Laam (12)

Races (over last year): 9 Wins: 2 Strike Rate: 22.22% ROI: 45.77% AV SP: 2.06

Un Bleu A Laam came sixth.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's 4am ratings show 23 races from 4 meetings.

Yesterday was inconclusive as far as finding a relationship between the top rated horse when it has the highest Average Rating in the race and the results.

Blindly backing every horse where it is the clear top on Average R4 (whether top on R4 or not) would have given us 2 wins from the 13 races. That would have returned 21.5 units from 13 units staked (to ISP.) A profit on investment of 65.38%, in other words.

However, it does seem a bit of a blunt sword technique to me.

So, I'll be looking at that again today.

The candidates are...

Leicester 14:30 - Lord Navits (+)
Leicester 15:00 - Azure Fly (+)
Chelmsford 15:40 - Sioux Chieftan (+)
Kempton 16:45 - Fire King (+)
Kempton 17:45 - Hurricane Alert (+)
Kempton 18:45 - Greatest Journey (+)
Kempton 19:15 - Tommy's Geal (+)

These are all horses that are top rated and also have the highest Average Rating in the race. The plus symbols show whether the horse is running at higher than its average rating; today all of the candidates are.

One of the Winter Upgrades is to show the percentage difference between the horse's current rating and its average rating. Using that as a metric, Hurricane Alert stands out as he is running with a rating of 6.35 compared to his average rating of 4.11

Thus, he's the horse that I'll be risking my sixpence on today.

He is currently the favourite on Betfair with a price of 2.41; what is more, he is the clear favourite as the second favourite has a price of 4.9 (more than twice as much.)

Somewhere, in a previous life (well, in my life before Focus Ratings) I did some analysis of backing favourites to win when they were at a significantly lower price than the second favourite. With some sensible filters that was a consistently profitable approach.

Oh dear, I've just realised what I've said and I'm sure that, before 10am, one of you is going to ask what happens when our top rated horse is the favourite and is at a significantly lower price than the second favourite.

I'd better get working on an answer to that, hadn't I?

I am taking a break from the Speed Ratings today as I have reached a natural pause. I'll be trying to catch up on some of the other Winter Upgrades instead.

Anyway, have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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