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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Once again, I have tried to do a bit more analysis of the individual races,

Now, I can't promise that I can do this every day but I'll do my best.

This is really just a view of my timeline; as I'm working away on the Ratings but also watching the results come in.

I'm just trying to share my world with you.

And, please forgive me for this but I really do have to say... COYS!

And, if you don't know what that means, believe me, you're better off that way; it isn't easy being a Spurs supporter but it's lovely to have been given the chance to lose to Chelsea in the League Cup final at Wembley in just over a month's time!

Enough of that rubbish, let's look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 23.81%.

It certainly didn't feel such a great day to me but I can't really complain about the strike rate.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 39.07 units returned to 61 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 64.05%

Forecasts

There was one forecast yesterday.

Chelmsford 14:40 - The CSF paid £43.27 and, if you had blindly backed the forecast in every race, with just this one result, you would have been in profit! In fact, you'd have had 43.27 units returned for an outlay of 23 units. My rusty slide rule reckons that that's a profit on investment of 88.13%

Actually, it may have been higher than that as there were two races where the top rated horse was a non-runner and I'm not sure what happens in that case.

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were no tricasts/trifecta yesterday.

Winners

From the 23 rated races there were 10 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - two of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Chelmsford 14:40 The Dandy Yank 9.0 9.5
Leicester 16:30 Catchin Time 5.5 6.6

Comments...

These are the sorts of things that I note, during the day, as the results come in...

1). Chelmsford 13:40 - Our top rated horse won this race. He was also our Banker's Bet for today so that's a pretty good start for me.

Why did he win? Well, the thing that stands out for me is that is ran at a massively higher rating than his average rating. I'm still not too sure how important that is but it's something that I'll be highlighting in the new format ratings.

2). Newcastle 13:50 - Our second rated horse won this race. We also got the top three in this race; unfortunately, not in the right order.

If you look at the confidence levels in this race, it's pretty obvious that the top rated and the second rated horses were always going to come first and second (although possibly not in the right order (their confidence levels were pretty close.)

3). Leicester 14:00 - Our top rated horse won this race. He was clear top on R4 and was also running at far above his average rating.

So, three winners from three races and I'm thinking that this might be a special day; however, it's now time to enter the Dodgy Zone!

Also, the horse that had the highest Average Rating in the race came second and paid a Betfair Place Price of 1.31

4). Chelmsford 14:10 - Our top rated horse came second and our second rated horse came third. No, I can't explain what went wrong with this one, either.

5). Newcastle 14:20 - Our second rated horse came third and our third rated horse came second.

6). Leicester 14:30 - Our top rated horse won this race. We also got the second and third rated horses in the top three; unfortunately, in the wrong order.

Our top rated horse was also the horse with the highest Average Rating in the race. On Betfair he paid 2.75 for a win and 1.3 for a place.

7). Chelmsford 14:40 - Our top rated horse won this race. And our second rated horse came second!

The CSF paid £43.27!

If you had backed every forecast in every race today, then the 43.27 units returned from this race alone would have made you a profit on investment of 88.13%

So, at this point, I'm feeling pretty happy! And I'm trying very hard not to look at the clock to work out how many minutes and seconds it is until Wine O'Clock.

My stats, so far, show me that, if you had blindly backed every top three rated horse to level stakes you'd have had 19.21 units returned to 21 units staked.

If you had just backed the top rated horse to equal stakes then you would have had 16.83 units returned for 7 units staked.

So, for that, a 140.43% profit on investment (to ISP) by blindly backing the top rated horse to level stakes (so far.)

8). Newcastle 14:50 - Our top rated horse was a non-runner. The Live Ratings promoted the second and third rated horse to first and second rated, respectively. They then brought in Amore Mio as the new third rated horse. Amore Mio won the race at 5.0 ISP (5.34 BSP.)

Interestingly, Amore Mio was also the horse that had the highest Average Rating in the race.

9). Leicester 15:00 - Our third rated horse came second. There's really nothing else that I can say about this race.

10). Chelmsford 15:10 - Our third rated horse came third.

11). Newcastle 15:20 - Our second rated horse won and our top rated horse came second.

12). Leicester 15:30 - Our third rated horse won and our top rated horse came third.

13). Chelmsford 15:40 - Our second rated horse won and our top rated horse came second.

14). Newcastle 15:50 - Our top rated horse came second and our third rated horse came third.

At this point, Wine O'Clock seemed farther away as our stats weren't looking so good.

If you had blindly backed the top three rated horses in all the races so far, you'd have invested 40 units for a return of 27.32 units.

15). Leicester 16:00 - Our second rated horse came second.

16). Chelmsford 16:10 - Our top rated horse came second.

17). Leicester 16:30 - Our second rated horse came second but our third rated horse won at 5.5 ISP.

18). Kempton 16:45 - Our third rated horse came second.

19). Kempton 17:15 - Our top rated horse came second and our third rated horse came third.

20). Kempton 17:45 - Our second rated horse won at 4.5 ISP.

So, it's officially Wine O'Clock at Focus Ratings Towers but there won't be any celebrations.

If you had blindly backed the top three rated horses in all the races so far, you'd have invested 58 units for a return of 37.32 units.

21). Kempton 18:15 - Our top rated horse came third.

22). Kempton 18:45 - Our top rated horse won and our third rated horse came second.

23). Kempton 19:15 - Our second rated horse came second and our third rated horse came third.

Now, reading that lot back it does look very boring.

It's just the notes that I jotted down during the afternoon and evening. I shall try to start adding some additional detail from today as one member has kindly sent me his analysis to show what he looks for in the ratings.

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet yesterday (but no Chancer's Bet.)

Bankers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Chelmsford (AW) - 13:40:00 - Twin Turbo (4)

Races (over last year): 35 Wins: 22 Strike Rate: 62.86% ROI: 180.41% AV SP: 2.87

Twin Turbo came first.

All I can say is... "Thank God for that!"

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's 4am ratings show 31 races from 5 meetings.

Yesterday was still inconclusive as far as finding a relationship between the top rated horse when it has the highest Average Rating in the race and the results.

The candidates were...

Leicester 14:30 - Lord Navits (+) - Won at 2.75/2.74 (1.3)
Leicester 15:00 - Azure Fly (+) - non-runner
Chelmsford 15:40 - Sioux Chieftan (+) - Came last
Kempton 16:45 - Fire King (+) - Came fifth
Kempton 17:45 - Hurricane Alert (+) - Came seventh
Kempton 18:45 - Greatest Journey (+) - Won at 1.73/1.81 (1.33)
Kempton 19:15 - Tommy's Geal (+) - Came third at 5.0/5.4 (2.17 - 12 runners)

These are all horses that are top rated and also have the highest Average Rating in the race. The plus symbols show whether the horse is running at higher than its average rating; today all of the candidates are.

I still think that there is something there; it's just that I don't know what it is.

Blindly backing every horse where it is the clear top on Average R4 (whether top on R4 or not) would have given us 3 wins from the 17 races. That would have returned 11.95 units from 17 units staked (to ISP.)

If this is something that might interest you, the following are the horses that have the highest Average Rating in races where there are 8 or more runners...

Course RC0 Time Run Horse AV R4 HC Conf
Thurles 3 13:35:00 10 Drumlee 3.95 No 112.35
Southwell (AW) 3 14:00:00 12 Pabusar 5.25 Yes 74.19
Thurles 1 14:05:00 11 Triplets Joy 3.88 No
Towcester 1 14:20:00 11 Take The Mick 4.61 Yes 112.50
Thurles 1 14:35:00 21 Totally Dominant 3.51 No 100.97
Wincanton 1 14:40:00 13 Dolores Delightful 3.71 No 107.23
Towcester 1 14:50:00 12 Ozzy Thomas 4.34 No 110.81
Thurles 2 15:05:00 12 Ryansbrook 3.70 No 114.52
Wincanton 3 15:10:00 11 Notarfbad 4.40 Yes 86.38
Towcester 3 15:20:00 9 Twelve Strings 3.77 Yes 69.42
Southwell (AW) 3 15:30:00 10 Toto Skyllachy 5.08 Yes 115.63
Thurles 3 15:35:00 8 Romantic Fashion 3.74 Yes 59.24
Wincanton 3 15:40:00 10 Blue Buttons 4.06 Yes 94.00
Southwell (AW) 3 16:00:00 8 Putin 4.45 Yes 107.46
Thurles 3 16:05:00 13 Oscarswan 3.85 Yes 73.91
Wincanton 1 16:10:00 8 Coombe Hill 4.11 No 84.72
Southwell (AW) 3 16:30:00 10 Amenable 4.68 Yes 95.71
Wolverhampton (AW) 3 17:35:00 8 Swampfire 4.24 Yes 101.69
Wolverhampton (AW) 3 18:40:00 11 Kakapuka 4.12 Yes 82.77
Wolverhampton (AW) 3 19:10:00 11 Missandei 4.39 Yes 88.66
Wolverhampton (AW) 3 19:40:00 9 Light From Mars 4.48 Yes 89.03
Wolverhampton (AW) 3 20:10:00 11 Tenhoo 4.24 Yes 51.49

I shall be working on the Winter Upgrades today.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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