Morning News

Good morning...

Ok, today is just going to be a quick one as I'm sort of taking the day off.

I need to take a look at my own betting strategy.

I don't do much at the moment and I think that I need to do something about that.

After all, if you guys are making money from the ratings, why shouldn't I?

Anyway, I've marked out this weekend as a mad coding frenzy to get the Speed Ratings finished.

So, let's take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 35.84%.

That'll do me!

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 79.02 units returned to 92 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 83.17%

Had you blindly backed the top rated horse in every race you would have had 37.05 units returned to 31 units staked.

Forecasts

There were two forecasts yesterday.

Southwell 15:00 - The CSF paid £5.51

Wolverhampton 18:10 - The CSF paid £32.87

If you had blindly backed the forecast in every race, with just these two results, you would have been in profit! In fact, you'd have had 38.38 units returned for an outlay of 31 units.

However, there was one Trifecta (the 15:50 at Towcester) as well and the CSF on that paid £19.91.

So, in reality, if you had backed every forecast yesterday, you'd have ended up walking away with 58.29 units for 31 units staked.

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was one trifecta yesterday.

Towcester 15:50 - The Trifecta paid £36.50

If you had blindly backed every Trifecta/Tricast yesterday you would have won 36.50 units for 31 units staked.

Winners

From the 31 rated races there were 19 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - three of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Wincanton	14:10	Gores Island	8.0	9.35
Thurles	15:05	Ryansbrook	6.0	8.33
Southwell	15:30	Bushel	5.5	5.8

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet yesterday (but no Chancer's Bet.)

Bankers Bet = Chase the Winners! - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Chase and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 70% and Runners was equal to or more than 7 and Runners was equal to or less than 15 and the Horse\'s R4 is greater than 4.0 and the Horse\'s Confidence is greater than 120% and Horse was a Favourite, Joint Favourite or a Co Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Thurles - 13:35:00 - Drumlee (6)

Races (over last year): 8 Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 50.00% ROI: 149.00% AV SP: 2.98

Drumlee came fourth.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's 2am ratings show 33 races from 5 meetings.

Now, I do apologise for the brevity of today's Morning News but I can either say very little or spend hours saying a lot.

I hope that tomorrow I'll be able to add more analysis to the races and the results.

As far as the highest average ratings is concerned; I'm still confounded and amazed (in equal proportions) by that - I'm sure that there is a profitable strategy somewhere, I just need to work it out (even if only so that I can make a few quid by utilising it! Obviously, I will share any information that I can dig up.)

My only thought at the moment is that yesterday was a pretty good day's racing.

If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in every race you would have made a profit.

Actually, if you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse you would have had 31.31 units returned for 30 units staked (there was one non-runner.)

If you had blindly done every forecast in every race you would have made a profit.

If you had blindly done every tricast/trifecta in every race you would have made a profit.

I need to find ways of showing you how to filter the races so that is easier to choose which races to look at.

I also need to find out how to make the ratings more consistent or, at least, show you when they aren't going to be so good.

To explain what I mean, I'm going to show you what I said, in an email, to one of the members a few hours ago...

Years ago a company built a car called the E-Type.

Now, many (and I number amongst them) people think that Jaguar should have stopped there as they'd actually built the most beautiful car ever made.

But, some silly people kept moving on and adding things like turbos and ABS and air conditioning and hydraulic brakes and four valves per cylinder and clever stuff like that.

And now, as a result, there are many top end family saloons that can out perform an E-Type in real terms.

Years ago a guy called Clive Holt built a ratings system called FineForm. Now, many people liked that as it was simple and you could do all your calculations on the back of a beer mat (which kept the beer mat industry going.)

However, Clive Holt didn't have as many computers as me and I came up with a better way of doing FineForm and, to save ink, I called it R1.

That was about 4 years ago; now I'm up to R4 and thinking about R5.

And that's why we got a 35% strike rate for the top rated yesterday.

However, I do really need to take a break but, before I do that, I have to finish all that I have started.

I really am going to take the summer off.

If only to recharge my batteries before moving on to R5, R6 and so on?

You see, if we didn't keep trying to move forward and constantly improve, we'd still all be driving Ford Model T's (although, in my case, that would be an improvement on my current car!)

So, A busy weekend ahead of me; trying to get the Speed Ratings finished but, today, I am going to take a bit of a breather.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards