Morning News

Good morning...

Well, it was a much happier day yesterday.

A decent strike rate and you could have blindly backed every top rated horse and made a profit.

In fact, you could have blindly backed every top three rated horse and made a profit.

And we got the winner in the Welsh Champion Hurdle (we also got second and third but in the wrong order unfortunately - thus narrowly missing out on the £1040 Tricast.)

So I'm a pretty happy bunny.

And will be carrying with my work on the Speed Ratings with a big smile on my face.

Let's take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 33.33%.

And that's over my target strike rate of 30%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 102.52 units returned to 101 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 101.5%

Had you blindly backed the top rated horse in every race you would have had 45.99 units returned to 33 units staked.

Thus, a profit of 39.36% on your investment.

Forecasts

There were two forecasts yesterday.

Wetherby 13:35 - The CSF paid £4.55

Fairyhouse 14:30 - The CSF paid £8.71

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was one trifecta yesterday.

Wetherby 13:35 - The Trifecta paid £7.10

Winners

From the 34 rated races there were 22 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - six of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Wetherby	13:00	Bob's Lady Tamure	5.5	6.2
Ffos Las	14:05	Silsol	9.0	11.38
Lingfield	14:55	Spiritual Star	5.5	5.76
Sandown	15:00	Invicta Lake	21.0	28.0
Sandown	15:35	Le Reve	6.0	6.71
Lingfield	16:05	Major Muscari	9.0	10.63

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet yesterday (but no Chancer's Bet.)

Bankers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Lingfield (AW) - 13:10:00 - Sample (10)

Races (over last year): 36 Wins: 23 Strike Rate: 63.89% ROI: 181.45% AV SP: 2.84

Sample came third.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Yesterday, the horses with the highest Average R4 in the race were as follows...

Ffos Las 12:55 - Filatore - came 3rd 6/1.6

Wetherby 13:00 - May Hay - came 2nd 2.25/1.22

Fairyhouse 13:20 - Witness of Fashion - came 4th

Ffos Las 13:30 - Key to the West - pulled up

Sandown 13:50 - Brick Red - won 4/1.57

Fairyhouse 13:55 - Carrigmoorna Rock - pulled up

Ffos Las 14:05 - Oscar Sunset - pulled up

Wetherby 14:10 - Indian Voyage - came last

Lingfield 14:20 - Mimi Luke - came last

Fairyhouse 14:30 - Hostile Fire - won 4/1.61

Ffos Las 14:40 - Tarraco - pulled up

Wetherby 14:45 - Wayward Glance - pulled up

Lingfield 14:55 - Mindurownbusiness - came 2nd 2.75/1.45

Sandown 15:00 - Hansupfordetroit - came 3rd 21/6.4

Fairyhouse 15:05 - Killiney Court - came 3rd 11/3.75

Ffos Las 15:10 - The Green Ogre - came 6th

Wetherby 15:20 - Kaki de la Pree - came 2nd 3.75/1.64

Sandown 15:35 - Just a Par - non-runner

Fairyhouse 15:40 - To Choose - non-runner

Lingfield 16:05 - Major Muscari - won 9/2.51

Sandown 16:10 - Monbeg Theatre - came 2nd 4.5/1.99

Fairyhouse 16:15 - Hello Sweetie - came 3rd 15/3.5

So, by blindly backing all of those horses on the Betfair Place market would have returned 23.49 units to 20 units staked (assuming a commission of 5%.)

More work is required to identify additional filters to improve the strike rate and consistency.

For any of you who are interested, here are today's highest Av R4 horses...

Course	RC0	Time	Run	Horse	AV R4	HC	Conf
Chelmsford (AW)	1	13:15:00	11	Exentricity	3.13	No	100.00
Musselburgh	1	13:30:00	8	Kie	4.32	Yes	87.68
Punchestown	3	13:40:00	9	Federici	4.34	No	100.00
Punchestown	1	14:10:00	12	Open Eagle	4.22	No
Chelmsford (AW)	3	14:20:00	15	Miami Gator	4.22	Yes	79.21
Chelmsford (AW)	3	14:50:00	9	Bapak Bangsawan	4.72	Yes	84.37
Musselburgh	1	15:00:00	15	Sea Lord	4.45	Yes	99.54
Punchestown	3	15:10:00	18	Gold Patrol	4.52	Yes	77.30
Chelmsford (AW)	3	15:20:00	11	Kodafine	4.27	Yes	111.18
Musselburgh	1	16:00:00	8	Walden	4.37	No	88.32
Punchestown	3	16:10:00	9	Jupitor	4.05	Yes	96.63
Chelmsford (AW)	3	16:20:00	10	World Record	4.64	Yes	81.28
Musselburgh	1	16:30:00	12	Run Ructions Run	4.26	Yes	65.12

Today's 5am test ratings show 20 rated faces from three meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards