Morning News

Good morning...

Finally, with 2 years of Forecast results in a spreadsheet...

I am able to start trying to identify those races where our top two rated horses will win the forecast.

Today is my day off and I will be trying, at all costs, to avoid spreadsheets of any kind.

So I don't expect to start relaying results until Tuesday.

However, I did have a cheeky, sneaky peek yesterday and I've come up with a basic strategy that gives one selection a day, a 22% strike rate and an 81% profit on stakes.

I think that I can do better than that and, besides...

That strategy was only based upon the characteristics of the top rated horse (the one that we want to win the race) and I really need to look at the mathematical relationship between the top rated horse and the second rated horse (the horse that we want to come second) in order to best identify the opportunities.

I'll share the spreadsheet and keep you updated as soon as I can.

For more detail of yesterday's results, here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 23.08%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 17.65% from all 34 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 44.27 units returned to 76 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -41.75%

Top Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the top rated horses from 24 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 15.5 units returned to 24 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -35.42%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the second rated horses from 28 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 12.89 units returned to 28 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -53.96%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 24 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 15.88 units returned to 24 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -33.83%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 8 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 3 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 37.5%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 4.67 units returned to 8 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -41.62%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 8 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 7 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 87.5%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Kelso 15:22:00 - The CSF paid £5.56

Doncaster 16:45:00 - The CSF paid £26.67

Something to make you smile...

Old Friend's Home...

A guy was invited to an old friends' home for dinner.

His buddy preceded every request to his wife by endearing terms, calling her Honey, My Love, Darling, Sweetheart, Pumpkin, etc.

The guy was impressed since he knew the couple had been married almost 70 years, and while the wife was off in the kitchen he said to his buddy, "I think it's wonderful that
after all the years you've been married, you still call your wife those pet names."

His buddy hung his head. "To tell you the truth, I forgot her name about ten years ago."

Today

Today's early test ratings show 19 rated races from three meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards