Morning News

Good morning...

I guess that the highlight, for me, of yesterday's racing was the 14:25 at Southwell.

We got the forecast in that race - the CSF paid £22.86

Our top rated horse, Shoot to Win, won at 7/1 (8.30 BSP) and was one of the 5 EarlyBirdRatings Diamonds and Gold selections. Even though the remaining 4 selections failed to win, it was a profitable day for that system (as, indeed, it was for the Investment Betting selections.)

I've pretty much finished the work on a possible Forecast strategy; I just need to add another sheet to see if it is worth doing the Reverse Forecast as well as the normal forecast.

So far I have a system that produces about 5.4 bets per week, a 16.89% strike rate and an 84.99% POI.

If you start with a £100 bank and bet to £1 stakes you would see your bank increase to about £350 at the end of the year.

There is a refinement to that system.

This only gives you 1.5 bets a week (and those are a subset of the primary system) and gives a 20.12% strike rate and a 362.41% POI.

It might be worth doubling your stakes when these selections come up.

By starting with a £100 bank and betting to £1 stakes on the basic selections and £2 stakes on the refined selections you would see your bank at about £650 after a year.

Both assume betting to level stakes.

I see this as a fun system (a bit like buying a scratchcard) - when you lose you don't feel so bad as you've only lost £1 but, when you get those £25 wins, you feel rich.

Even though this is a Bookie system, because of the scarcity of bets this might pass under the radar in terms of getting bookie accounts closed down; in any case, bookies like people doing forecasts (and other multiple bets) as they are viewed as mug bets.

So, today I just need to analyse the Reverse Forecasts (which, if applicable, would mean doubling the betting bank) to see if they should be bet as well. I'll let you know once I'm done.

For more detail on yesterday's results, here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25.81%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 24.24%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 22.86% from all 35 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 104.22 units returned to 93 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 12.06%

Top Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the top rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 33.58 units returned to 31 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 8.32%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the second rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 32.64 units returned to 31 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 5.29%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 38 units returned to 31 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 22.58%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 11 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 3 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 27.27%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 14 units returned to 11 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, 27.27%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 11 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 8 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 72.73%

Forecasts

There were 3 forecasts yesterday from 35 races.

Southwell (AW) 14:35:00 - The CSF paid £22.86

Wincanton 15:35:00 - The CSF paid £19.76

Southwell (AW) 16:50:00 - The CSF paid £7.00

Reverse Forecasts

There were 3 reverse forecasts yesterday from 35 races.

Wincanton 14:25:00 - The CSF paid £64.85

Carlisle 16:35:00 - The CSF paid £3.15

Newcastle (AW) 16:55:00 - The CSF paid £1.35

Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Southwell (AW) 16:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £20.30

Something to make you smile...

The Millionaire

Once there was a millionaire who had a collection of live alligators. He kept them in a pool at the back of his mansion.

The millionaire also had a beautiful daughter who was single. One day, he decides to throw a huge party.

During the party he announces, "My dear guests, I have a proposition to every man here. I will give one million dollars or my daughter to the man who can swim across this pool full of alligators and emerge unharmed!"

As soon as he finishes his last word, there is the sound of a large splash.

The guests all turn to see a man in the pool swimming as fast as he can. They cheer him on as he keeps stroking.

Finally, the swimming man makes it to the other side unharmed.

The millionaire is so impressed, he says, "My boy, that was incredible! Fantastic! I didn't think it could be done! Well, I must keep my end of the bargain. Which do you want, my daughter or the one million dollars?"

The man says, "Listen, I don't want your money. I don't want your daughter, either. I want the person who pushed me in that water!"

Today

Today's early test ratings show 27 rated races from four meetings.

Every race is rated.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards