Morning News

Good morning...

You know, as the racing started yesterday I had a horrible feeling that it was going to be a terrible day.

And, to be honest, it wasn't as good as it should have been.

However, if you'd done the forecast in every race...

You'd have got your money back three and a half times over!

And, if you'd blindly backed the top rated horse in all the rated races, you'd have had 16.93 units returned for 13 units staked.

So, not such a bad day, after all.

Having said that, let's take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 30.78%.

During the afternoon it didn't feel so good; perhaps I'm just getting greedy?

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 25.68 units returned to 39 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 65.85%

If you'd blindly backed the top rated horse in all the rated races, you'd have had 16.93 units returned for 13 units staked.

Forecasts

There was just one forecast yesterday.

But that was enough!

Wolverhampton 16:40 - The CSF paid £49.34!

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were no tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Winners

From the 13 rated races there were 8 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - two of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Wolverhampton	16:40	Prime Exhibit	5.0	5.2
Wolverhampton	17:40	First Rebellion	5.5	5.78

Comments...

There isn't to much to comment about; as I've mentioned, it was quite a depressing day for me yesterday as one of the meetings was cancelled and I couldn't get too excited about the remaining two meetings.

Having said that, I have to make the effort as I seem to have dragged myself out of a perfectly nice warm bed, at some ungodly hour (yes, 3am does exist! It just shouldn't; that's really against all the laws of nature, isn't it?) to do just that.

1). Wolverhampton 15:40 - We got the first three horses in this race. Unfortunately not in the right order.

2). Wolverhampton 16:40 - We got the forecast in this race. The CSF paid £49.34

3). Wolverhampton 17:40 - Our second rated horse was a non-runner. Our top rated horse came second and our third rated horse came first. The Live Ratings brought in Shaft of Light which came third.

A really quiet day and I rather suspect that today will be similar.

However, something at the back of my mind is tickling me and the sensible bit of my mind tells me that I shouldn't mention this but then, since when have I listened to common sense?

So here goes...

Wolves runs slower than Lingfield (Lingfield is the fastest AW course and Wolves is the slowest) - does this mean anything when the weather gets bad?

We did far better from Wolves yesterday than we did at Lingfield.

Does that mean something?

I have this feeling that we over use Going as a metric and don't take weather conditions into account as much as we should.

I won't be looking into this until next Autumn but there are some questions at the back of my mind (and that's a very dark and frightening place, let me tell you!)

1). You had bad weather yesterday (or so I believe) - is there any meaning to the fact that we did far better on our slowest AW course than we did on our fastest AW course?

2). If the going is heavy at Brighton, does that mean the same thing as heavy going at Ascot?

I have this totally irrational prejudice that, regardless of the declared going, running on Heavy ground when it is raining in the winter is different to running on heavy ground in the summer.

This happens with track athletes; it works in Formula One and it works on the Isle of Man TT.

And I don't think that any other Ratings System (in horse racing) takes this into account and, perhaps it's time that I did?

To put this into perspective; I have an interest in following yacht racing and mountaineering; in both sports, it's the weather forecaster who makes the difference between success or failure/life and death.

Anyway, that's something that I'll be thinking about in about 8 months time.

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Something to cheer you up...

One of the members sent me a joke yesterday. I did have to laugh as it is so true!

In fact, I laughed at it many times as the results were coming in; during the day they didn't really look as good as where they ended up.

Culture Shock.

This happened to an Englishman in France who was totally intoxicated .

The French policeman stops his car and asks the gentleman if he has been drinking.

With great difficulty, the Englishman admits that he has been drinking all day, that his daughter got married in the morning to a French man, and that he drank champagne and a few bottles of wine at the reception and a quite few glasses of single malt thereafter.

Quite upset, the policeman proceeds to alcotest (breath test) him and asks the Englishman if he knows under French Law why he is going to be arrested.

The Englishman answers with humour: "No sir, I do not! But while we're asking questions, do you know that this is a British car and my wife is driving... on the other side!

Today

Yesterday, the horses with the highest Average R4 in the race produced no winners and, thus, I'm going to take rest from talking about them today.

I still think that there's a massive potential opportunity here but, with the recent success that we've been having with the forecasts, perhaps it's better if I look at those (or get back to my studies on Dutching), instead.

So many things to think about; so little time!

If you want to test this possible opportunity for yourself, you can always take a look at the full PDF (option 3 on your daily ratings email) to work out which horses are highest in Av R4 - there are only 2 meetings today so it shouldn't take too much time.

Today's 4am test ratings show 12 rated faces from two AW meetings.

Analysis...

I'm going to do a bit of brief analysis as there are only two meetings. Please feel free to tell me where I'm going wrong.

You can see the 4am ratings that I'm working from: http://focusratings.com/data/focusratings-2015-02-03-385969.pdf

1). Southwell 13:55 - An Amateur race! I don't like these. I don't understand these. AW Amateur races are our worst performing type of race with a win percentage for the top rated horse of only 7%. Our second rated horse has the highest Average R4 in the race but he's running at less that this. So, I'm putting a line through this race. Thus, the twelve races has now become eleven races to focus on.

2). Kempton 14:10 - Our top rated horse, City of Angkor Wat, has the highest Average R4 in the race and is running with a rating that is higher than this. He is also dropping in class since his last time out. However, he has changed trainer since his last run 4 days ago. The top four rated horses are all running at higher than their Average R4 whereas the other four horses are running at less than their Average R4. To my mind, this makes it a 4 horse race. So, I'll be looking into this race.

3). Southwell 14:30 - You know, nothing at all stands out for this race. Gabriel the Duke has the highest Average R4 in the race but is fifth rated. You don't have to bet on every race; you don't have to analyse races that are hard to analyse.

4). Kempton 14:45 - A six runner race but only three horses are rated. That makes it a three horse race. We do well on AW Maidens - 35% of all winners at these types of race come from a top three rated horse. 74.31% of all placed horses come from top three rated horses. This leads me to think that there is a Betfair Place betting opportunity here; it all depends on the prices. Betfair only pay out on the first two horses in 6 runner races.

5). Southwell 15:00 - Seven runners but only four are rated. That makes it a four horse race. We do well on AW Maidens - 35% of all winners at these types of race come from a top three rated horse. 74.31% of all placed horses come from top three rated horses. However, the third rated horse only has an R4 of 53% so that sort of makes it a two horse race. The top rated horse, La Estatua, has a very good R4 and that is a significant increase on her Average R4. Now, this is where the Speed Ratings would come in handy to help me decide on whether to bet on the top rated horse. There will also be Stall Win Percentages shown on the new ratings; once again, that might show if there is any stall bias here. Certainly a race to consider.

6). Kempton 15:15 - A 9 horse handicap with loads of Unique Trainers; way too complex for me! Our top rated horse looks good on paper but I've never heard of the jockey so I'll give this race a miss. Standing Strong, our fifth rated horse, has the highest Average R4 in the race but is running with a rating significantly lower than this.

7). Southwell 15:35 - Our top rated horse, Barb's Princess has the highest Average R4 in the race and is running with a rating that is higher than this. Possibly a Place bet opportunity, depending on the prices available.

8). Kempton 15:50 - The top three rated horses are pretty close in terms of their ratings. In fact, all the 10 runners are rated and they are all pretty close. No race for me here. I should mention that our second rated horse has the highest Average R4 in the race and is running with a rating higher than this. Still no race for me.

9). Southwell 16:05 - A 13 runner handicap: oh dear! Still, the top two rated horses are a significant step away from the third rated horse (in terms of R4) so that sort of makes it a 2 horse race. Perhaps there is a Betfair Place betting opportunity but I guess that it'll come down to the prices on offer in about 10 hours time. Note that we do well on AW Maidens - 35% of all winners at these types of race come from a top three rated horse. 74.31% of all placed horses come from top three rated horses.

10). Kempton 16:25 - The top three rated horses are so close to each other that it's almost meaningless. However, they are a way away from the fourth rated horse so it looks like the winner will be from one of them. But, which one? Too complex for me so I'll avoid this race.

11). Southwell 16:40 - A seven runner Class 6 Handicap where nothing stands out. Is it time for Celebrity Big Brother Yet?

12). Kempton 16:55 - Nothing stands out in the race as far as the ratings are concerned. In other words, the spread of the actual numbers is so small that it is difficult to pick a winner. The top three rated horses have an R4 that are within 5% of each other but, more importantly, the other horses are all pretty close. The 9th rated horse has a rating that is only 17% less than the top rated horse. A race that's not worth the hassle of analysing, for me.

Conclusion...

I have reduced the 12 races to 5 that interest me.

Do I know where we'll get a big priced Forecast or Tricast from?

Well, actually, no I don't but it'll be interesting if it comes from one of those 5 races.

Have a great day's racing!

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The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards