Morning News

Good morning...

Well, from what I thought was going to be a very boring day's racing...

We seem to have done quite well.

Once again, had you concentrated on the non-handicap races, you would have seen a profit of 42% on your stakes.

Work is continuing on the forecast strategy and I have to say that I'm getting rather excited.

As you can see from the screenshot below, the prices paid when our top rated horse comes second and our second rated horse wins are incredible.

The profit column shows the price paid for the forecast minus the £1 stake. For the Irish races I have converted the euros to pounds but have used a nominal exchange rate of 1.20 euros to the pound. Obviously, over the period of the data, the exchange rate was between 1.07 and 1.12 euros to the pound so I am significantly understating the profits from the Irish races.

It's too early to say but it does feel like the real gold dust is to be found with the Irish races.

Currently (at 3am) I'm up to the 25th of August 2019 so should be finished on adding the prices paid for the forecasts by about 8am.

I'll then do some basic analysis to see what direction I should be looking in; I'll update you (hopefully, with good news) tomorrow morning.

For more detail of yesterday's results, here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 38.1%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 37.21%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 36.36% from all 22 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 29.74 units returned to 62 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -52.03%

Top Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the top rated horses from 21 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 19.74 units returned to 21 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -6%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 1 winners from the second rated horses from 20 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 7 units returned to 20 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -65%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 1 winners from the third rated horses from 21 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 3 units returned to 21 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -85.71%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 9 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 6 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 66.67%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 12.86 units returned to 9 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, 42.89%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 9 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 6 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 66.67%

Forecasts

There were 3 forecasts yesterday.

Southwell (AW) 14:20:00 - The CSF paid £20.15

Warwick 14:30:00 - The CSF paid £3.60

Naas 16:20:00 - The CSF paid £3.39

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Southwell (AW) 15:25:00 - The CSF paid £17.01

Something to make you smile...

Cold Water

John went to visit his 90 year old grandfather in a very secluded, rural area of Georgia.

After spending a great evening chatting the night away, John's grandfather prepared breakfast of bacon, eggs and toast.

However, John noticed a film like substance on his plate, and questioned his grandfather asking, "Are these plates clean?"

His grandfather replied, "They're as clean as cold water can get them. Just you go ahead and finish your meal, Sonny!"

For lunch the old man made hamburgers.

Again, John was concerned about the plates as his appeared to have tiny specks around the edge that looked like dried egg and asked, "Are you sure these plates are clean?"

Without looking up the old man said, "I told you before, Sonny, those dishes are as clean as cold water can get them. Now don't you fret, I don't want to hear another word about it!"

Later that afternoon, John was on his way to a nearby town and as he was leaving, his grandfather's dog started to growl, and wouldn't let him pass.

John yelled and said, "Grandfather, your dog won't let me get to my car".

Without diverting his attention from the football game he was watching on TV, the old man shouted ... "COLDWATER, GO LAY DOWN!!!!"

Today

Today's early test ratings show 32 rated races from five meetings.

Every race is rated.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards