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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

One of the members emailed me to tell me that many of you guys probably bet reverse forecasts rather than straight forecasts so, from today, I shall be recording the results of these as well.

If that works well, then I'll also go on to do the same with tricasts.

It was a quiet day yesterday with only two meetings and today looks like it'll be similar.

That said, let's take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 23.25 units returned to 36 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 64.58%

If you'd blindly backed the top rated horse in all the rated races, you'd have had 11.75 units returned for 12 units staked.

If you'd done a reverse forecast (at a cost of £2) in every race you would have had £28.41 returned for an outlay of £24.

Forecasts

There were no forecasts yesterday.

Reverse Forecasts

There was one reverse forecast yesterday.

Kempton 16:55 - The CSF paid £28.41

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were no tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Winners

From the 12 rated races there were 5 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - one of those was at a nice price.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Kempton 16:55 New Lyf 5.5 6.0

Comments...

With only two meetings I'm not sure that there will be much to say about yesterday but here goes...

I'll only mention those races that are worth mentioning.

1). Southwell 13:55 - Our top rated horse won this race at 4.0 ISP/4.6 BSP.

2). Kempton 14:10 - Our top rated horse won this race at 4.0 ISP/4.6 BSP. As I mentioned yesterday... "Our top rated horse, City of Angkor Wat, has the highest Average R4 in the race and is running with a rating that is higher than this. He is also dropping in class since his last time out."

There has to be something in this top on Average R4, doesn't there?

3). Southwell 14:30 - Yesterday I said that... "You know, nothing at all stands out for this race. Gabriel the Duke has the highest Average R4 in the race but is fifth rated. You don’t have to bet on every race; you don’t have to analyse races that are hard to analyse." As it turned out, I was right to avoid this race. Our top rated horse came second and that's all I can say. Apart, that is, from the fact that Gabriel The Duke won the race at 6.0 ISP/6.46 BSP (2.02 Betfair Place Price.)

There really has to be something in this top on Average R4, doesn't there?

4). Kempton 14:45 - Our top rated horse came 3rd and our second rated horse won. Not a profitable result for us but it does show how well we do in AW Maidens.

5). Southwell 15:00 - I'm not sure what happened here; the first three horses came in at prices of 11.0/8.0/21.0 and that's really not very normal, is it?

I didn't watch the race so I really can't comment but it must have been a stranger race than it looked like at 5am this morning.

6). Kempton 15:15 - Nothing to say about this race apart from what I said yesterday morning... "A 9 horse handicap with loads of Unique Trainers; way too complex for me! Our top rated horse looks good on paper but I've never heard of the jockey so I’ll give this race a miss."

7). Kempton 16:25 - Our top rated horse won at 3.75 ISP/3.96 BSP.

8). Kempton 16:55 - Our top rated horse came second and our second rated won. Thus, if you were doing Reverse Forecasts, the CSF would have paid £28.41 for a £2 stake.

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet yesterday (but no Chancer's Bet.)

Bankers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. - - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Southwell (AW) - 16:05:00 - Red Unico (3)

Races (over last year): 37 Wins: 23 Strike Rate: 62.16% ROI: 176.53% AV SP: 2.84

Red Unico came third.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Something to make you laugh...

It's an oldie but it's still a goodie!

Lester and the milkman's horse...

barrel-roll-horseLester Piggot is in the parade ring discussing race tactics with the horse's trainer.

The trainer tells Lester that this is the worst horse he has in training, it has had 18 races and finished last in all of them, if it doesn't win today the milkman will be using it for deliveries in the morning.

Lester mounts up and takes the horse down to the start.

The race begins and Lester is 30 lengths behind the leading horse after half a furlong, he gives the horse an almighty backhander on the behind, nothing, he then gives him a series of sharp slaps down the shoulder, nothing, he then gives him two wallops right on the goolies, the horse comes to a sudden stop, turns round to Lester and says "For Christ's sake will you turn it in with that whip, I have to be up at half four in the morning to deliver the milk!"

Today

From today, on the morning ratings email, there will be a link to a PDF that shows the horses with the highest Average R4 in every rated race.

You'll find it just below the links to the single meeting races.

Now, I can't test it so there's a change that it'll all go horribly wrong so I'm going to manually process the ratings this morning.

Thus, the ratings might be a little bit later than normal.

Today's 4am test ratings show 13 rated faces from two AW meetings.

I'm not going to do too much analysis as I'm aware that the ratings do change slightly between now and the normal ratings. This is because the forecast price (which I don't have at the moment) has a small effect on the ratings.

Having said that...

Analysis...

1). Chelmsford 14:00 - Our top rated horse, Rockfast, has a Confidence level of 156%. He is also a Unique Jockey/Trainer combination. We do very well in AW Auction Stakes and I can only rate 4 of the 6 horses in the race which sort of makes it a 4 horse race.

Nothing else stands out; there are too many horses changing class and, if I were a betting man...

I'd probably skip the racing and buy a scratchcard instead.

Seriously, it's probably one of the least exciting day's racing that I can remember for a long time.

I live and breath these numbers (the ratings) and if I can't get excited about them, it's got to mean something.

Still, I hope that you do well, whichever of the races you decide to bet on.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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