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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Well, we have racing again...

Even if it's just one meeting.

On a totally not horse racing related issue...

Over here in France we are all on a sort of house arrest.

We are allowed out for matters such as going to work, going to the doctor (or pharmacy) or going shopping for essentials (so food rather than clothes.)

Yesterday, weirdly enough, the Thursday morning market was allowed to be held but it was a very quiet matter.

SDC10016However, as soon as it was over the Gendarmes installed themselves in the market square.

As my village has a one way system, all traffic has to pass through the market square - there is no escape.

The gendarmes stopped everyone and checked their attestations (if you want to go out you have to download a form from the government website, fill it out and carry it with you.)

The poor chap in the photo obviously hadn't done that; what made it worse for him was that he started arguing about how this was a breach of his civil liberties and so forth.

I'm not sure that I would have argued - the Gendarmes are actually part of the French army and, thus, they all carry guns.

But chappy did...

So, obviously, the Gendarmes decided to have some fun and kept him for about 30 minutes whilst they did some checks.

They even breathalised him; yes, here in the land of Red Wine and Smelly Cheese you can be fined (and lose points off your driving license) if you are caught drunk in charge of a pushbike.

They then breathalised him again (I assume that was a drugs test) and, lo and behold, 5 minutes later a police van came and took him (and his pushbike) away.

Fascinating viewing; who needs a TV when you live in the market square of a small village in Brittany?

Anyway, back to more important matters...

Dundalk

I have started doing some basic analysis of Dundalk racing.

I will upload the spreadsheet (and publish the link) as soon as I have tidied it up.

Below is the basic Rate Type analysis.

The races shown are those that are blindly profitable at Dundalk; the only race today is the 3pm non-handicap Maiden.

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There appears to be a clear stall bias at Dundalk.

For the 6 to 8 furlong races there is a clear bias towards the lower stalls.

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For the 10 furlong races (9pm & 3:30pm) stall 1 to 4 seem to be the most profitable but...

For the 12 furlong races (4:00 pm) the draw bias seems to disappear.

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I know that I'm stating the bleeding obvious but we do better in the small field races.

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It is blindly profitable to back the top rated horse (regardless of race type) in 5 to 8 runner (inclusive) races.

The only applicable race today is the 8 furlong Auction 2:00 pm race.

I am now going to get back to work on producing the ratings for Sunday's meeting at Sha Tin.

You're probably aware that Hong Kong is 8 hours ahead of the UK so, the first race at Sunday's meeting (the 5pm) actually runs at 9am UK time.

Something to make you smile...

Murphy's Technology Laws

You can never tell which way the train went by looking at the track.

Logic is a systematic method of coming to the wrong conclusion with confidence.

Whenever a system becomes completely defined, some damn fool discovers something which either abolishes the system or expands it beyond recognition.

Technology is dominated by those who manage what they do not understand.

If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker that came along would destroy civilization.

The opulence of the front office decor varies inversely with the fundamental solvency of the firm.

The attention span of a computer is only as long as it electrical cord.

An expert is one who knows more and more about less and less until he knows absolutely everything about nothing.

Tell a man there are 300 billion stars in the universe and he'll believe you. Tell him a bench has wet paint on it and he'll have to touch to be sure.

All great discoveries are made by mistake.

Always draw your curves, then plot your reading.

Nothing ever gets built on schedule or within budget.

All's well that ends.

A meeting is an event at which the minutes are kept and the hours are lost.

The first myth of management is that it exists.

A failure will not appear till a unit has passed final inspection.

New systems generate new problems.

To err is human, but to really foul things up requires a computer.

We don't know one millionth of one percent about anything.

Any given program, when running, is obsolete.

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

A computer makes as many mistakes in two seconds as 20 men working 20 years make.

The faster a computer is, the faster it will reach a crashed state.

Nothing motivates a man more than to see his boss putting in an honest day's work.

Some people manage by the book, even though they don't know who wrote the book or even what book.

The primary function of the design engineer is to make things difficult for the fabricator and impossible for the serviceman.

To spot the expert, pick the one who predicts the job will take the longest and cost the most.

After all is said and done, a hell of a lot more is said than done.

Any circuit design must contain at least one part which is obsolete, two parts which are unobtainable and three parts which are still under development.

A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that works.

If mathematically you end up with the incorrect answer, try multiplying by the page number.

Computers are unreliable, but humans are even more unreliable. Any system which depends on human reliability is unreliable.

Give all orders verbally. Never write anything down that might go into a "Pearl Harbor File."

Under the most rigorously controlled conditions of pressure, temperature, volume, humidity, and other variables the organism will do as it damn well pleases.

If you can't understand it, it is intuitively obvious.

The more cordial the buyer's secretary, the greater the odds that the competition already has the order.

In designing any type of construction, no overall dimension can be totaled correctly after 4:30 p.m. on Friday. The correct total will become self-evident at 8:15 a.m. on Monday.

Fill what's empty. Empty what's full. And scratch where it itches.

All things are possible except skiing through a revolving door.

The only perfect science is hind-sight.

Work smarder and not harder and be careful of yor speling.

If it's not in the computer, it doesn't exist.

If an experiment works, something has gone wrong.

When all else fails, read the instructions.

If there is a possibility of several things going wrong the one that will cause the most damage will be the one to go wrong.

Everything that goes up must come down.

Any instrument when dropped will roll into the least accessible corner.

Any simple theory will be worded in the most complicated way.

Build a system that even a fool can use and only a fool will want to use it.

The degree of technical competence is inversely proportional to the level of management.

Any attempt to print Murphy's laws will jam the printer.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 8 rated races from one meeting.

Have a great day's racing!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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