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A far better day yesterday.
Although quite stressful for me...
Until the ratings had been produced properly.
Today is largely a catching up on emails day for me and...
Putting the Christmas Tree up for Jill.
Yes, I know that it's far too early but...
I am just a little kid at heart!
As it turned out, yesterday was quite a comfortable day,
As far as the racing was concerned.
An average day, yesterday, as can be seen from the Results.
A strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 24.24% is about right.
Forecasts
There were three forecasts yesterday.
Lingfield 12:30 The CSF paid £13.87 - we also got the 3rd horse but, as it wasn't a Handicap, it doesn't qualify as a Tricast.
Warwick 14:10 The CSF paid a whole £1.61
Fairyhouse 15:05 The CSF paid £18.00
Tricast
There were no tricasts yesterday.
Winners
From the 33 rated races there were 19 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - Five of these were at reasonable prices.
Course | Time | Horse | ISP | BSP |
Lingfield | 13:30 | Malaysian Boleh | 7.0 | 7.8 |
Fairyhouse | 14:35 | Tipped Up Harry | 6.0 | 7.23 |
Hexham | 15:20 | Tikkandemickey | 7.0 | 7.26 |
Lingfield | 15:30 | Salient | 11.0 | 17.18 |
Kempton | 16:25 | Just Marion | 6.0 | 6.4 |
Comments...
Nothing really stands out from yesterday's results:
At least, not to my eyes, although...
It's sort of interesting that, in the 14:50 at Hexham, our top rated horse was a non-runner.
The Live ratings took this into account and showed the below...
The actual results were...
They say that a picture tells a thousand words.
Well, those three images tell a story, don't they?
There was no Bankers Bet yesterday (and no Chancers Bet.)
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And finally...
Dutching
I have started the analysis of the Results spreadsheet.
I have decided to ignore Handicap races for the moment.
I am also only using data from the 19/11/2013 to the 18/11/2014.
I am, initially, trying to identify those race types to avoid and to try to get a feel for the range of field sizes that should be looked at.
Once I have that data then I can start getting into the nitty-gritty and trying to come up with some rules.
Then, totally contradicting what I said a few days ago, I shall look at applying some horse related rules (perhaps all 3 horses need to have run recently, or have not risen in class.)
I shall keep you informed of my progress.
Today
Five meetings today and I anticipate a similar day to yesterday.
The problems that we had on Tuesday have all been resolved but...
I shall be sitting in front of the computer, holding my breath (with my fingers crossed) until the ratings go out.
Congratulations to Frank for his nice win at the first race at Lingfield yesterday take a look at the top comment.)
As a result of Frank's comment, I'm going to look into putting live prices on the Easy Dutch page.
Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.
As always...
My kindest regards
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