Morning News

Good morning...

Well, many of the pieces are in place for the Winter Upgrades and...

The new Speed Ratings.

Unfortunately, in order to avoid thousands of questions,

I now need to get some documentation in place to explain what the numbers mean.

So, although I'll be able to share some things with you;

Writing that documentation will be my priority this week.

Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 15%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 41.59 units returned to 60 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 69.32%

If you'd blindly backed the top rated horse in all the rated races, you'd have had 6.84 units returned for 20 units staked.

However, if you'd blindly backed the second rated horse in all the rated races, you'd have had 22.25 units returned for 20 units staked.

And, if you'd backed the third rated horse in every race, you'd have had 12.5 units returned for 20 units staked.

Forecasts

There was one forecast yesterday.

Southwell 15:05 - The CSF paid £4.03

Reverse Forecasts

There were three reverse forecasts yesterday.

Exeter 13:55 - The CSF paid £8.65

Leopardstown 14:45 - The CSF paid £11.27

Leopardstown 16:20 - The CSF paid £3.94

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were no tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Winners
From the 20 rated races there were 10 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - four of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Southwell	13:35	Monzino	8.0	8.74
Exeter	15:55	Native River	5.5	6.53
Leopardstown	14:15	Nichols Canyon	5.5	5.6
Leopardstown	14:45	Apache Stronghold	5.5	5.85

Comments...

1). Southwell 13:35 - We got the first three in this race, albeit in the wrong order. Had you done the reverse Trifecta in this 5 horse race (which I believe would have cost you £6; I could be wrong there), you would have seen a return of £98.20.

Perhaps it's worth looking for small handicap races where the prices are high, just like this race, as opportunities for reverse trifectas. That's something that I'll be looking into once the Winter Upgrades and Speed Ratings are done.

2). Exeter 13:55 - We got the first two in this race, albeit it in the wrong order. Had you done the Reverse Forecast, the CSF would have returned £8.65 to your £2 stake.

3). Leopardstown 14:45 - We got the first two in this race, albeit it in the wrong order. Had you done the Reverse Forecast, the CSF would have returned £11.27 to your £2 stake.

4). Southwell 15:05 - We got the first two in this race, this time in the right order. Had you done the Forecast, the CSF would have returned £4.02 to your £1 stake.

5). Exeter 16:00 - We got the first three in this race, albeit in the wrong order. Had you done the reverse Trifecta, you would have seen a return of £4.90.

6). Southwell 16:10 - We got the first three in this race, albeit in the wrong order. Had you done the reverse Trifecta in this 6 horse race, you would have seen a return of £38.00.

7). Leopardstown 16:20 - We got the first two in this race, albeit it in the wrong order. Had you done the Reverse Forecast, the CSF would have returned £3.94 to your £2 stake.

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = AW Handicap Claimers - Season Proper - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Claimer and where the Race is a Handicap Race and the Month is January or the Month is February or the Month is March or the Month is April or the Month is October or the Month is November or the Month is December

Selection = Back to ISP - Southwell (AW) - 14:35:00 - Arctic Lynx (3)

Races (over last year): 15 Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 26.67% ROI: 140.55% AV SP: 5.27

Arctic Lynx came sixth.

Chancers Bet = AW High RC2 Handicaps - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Handicap Race and the Race\'s RC2 is greater than 60% and Runners was equal to or less than 8

Selection = Back to ISP - Southwell (AW) - 13:35:00 - Cascadia (5)

Races (over last year): 19 Wins: 3 Strike Rate: 15.79% ROI: 114.32% AV SP: 7.24

Cascadia came second.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's 6am test ratings show 19 rated races from three meetings.

Nothing stands out to me but, to be honest, I'm rather keen to get on with today's work and so I didn't look too hard.

Once again, I'd like to thank all of you who have left public comments at Tipsters Review - I welcome all comments, good or bad, and believe that it is far more honest that these comments are available for all too see rather than just hidden away on this website.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards