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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Ok, as I promised yesterday...

Things are starting to happen.

I've got a format for the new ratings PDF and I'm going to share a sample with you today.

Now, it's not quite finished but I feel that there is value in showing you where the ratings are going.

The next couple of weeks are going to be slow as I prefer to only do one change a day (so that I know what to fix when it all goes horribly wrong) but...

We'll get there in the end.

Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 28.57%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 38.51 units returned to 63 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 61.13%

If you'd blindly backed the top rated horse in all the rated races, you'd have had 18.90 units returned for 21 units staked.

However, if you'd blindly backed the second rated horse in all the rated races, you'd have had 19.62 units returned for 21 units staked.

And, strangely enough, if you'd backed the third rated horse in every race, none of your horses would have won. I think that this is the first time that we haven't had a winner from the third rated horse.

The Live Ratings had nothing to do as there were no non-runners.

Forecasts

There was one forecast yesterday.

Catterick 15:10 - The CSF paid £17.16

Reverse Forecasts

There were three reverse forecasts yesterday.

Plumpton 13:50 - The CSF paid £5.12

Plumpton 14:50 - The CSF paid £6.98

Wolverhampton 15:10 - The CSF paid £17.16

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were no tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Reverse Tricasts/Trifectas

There was one reverse tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Catterick 13:40 - The trifecta paid £16.20

Winners
From the 21 rated races there were 12 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - and none of those were at nice prices. Once again, I can't remember a day when that has happened.

Comments...

1). Southwell 13:35 - We got the first three in this race, albeit in the wrong order. Had you done the reverse Trifecta in this 5 horse race (which I believe would have cost you £6; I could be wrong there), you would have seen a return of £98.20.

2). Plumpton 13:50 - We got the first two in this race, albeit in the wrong order. Had you done the reverse Forecast in this horse race, the CSF would have paid £5.12.

3). Plumpton 14:50 - We got the first two in this race, albeit in the wrong order. Had you done the reverse Forecast in this horse race, the CSF would have paid £6.98.

4). Wolverhampton 14:50 - We got the first two in this race, albeit in the wrong order. Had you done the reverse Forecast in this horse race, the CSF would have paid £5.00

5). Catterick 15:10 - We got the first two in this race, this time in the right order. Had you done the Forecast in this horse race, the CSF would have paid £17.16

And that's pretty much all that I can say.

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = Bumper Drops! - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Flat and where RC0 (Good Race/Bad Race) = 1 and Horse has dropped 1 Class

Selection = Back to ISP - Catterick - 16:10:00 - Black Jack Rover (1)

Races (over last year): 18 Wins: 5 Strike Rate: 27.78% ROI: 107.79% AV SP: 3.88

Black Jack Rover won (I like it when that happens; it doesn't happen enough though) at 4.5 ISP (5.2 BSP.)

Chancers Bet = Bumper Drops! - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Flat and where RC0 (Good Race/Bad Race) = 1 and Horse has dropped 1 Class

Selection = Back to ISP - Plumpton - 16:50:00 - King Kayf (3)

Races (over last year): 18 Wins: 5 Strike Rate: 27.78% ROI: 107.79% AV SP: 3.88

King Kayf came fifth.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any Other Business...

So,just to let you know what I've been working on, I've decided to show you the new format ratings.

Now, you do need to know that this PDF shows all horses (whether rated or not) in all races (whether rated or not.)

I shall produce a new version of this PDF, once it's finished, which will just show the top three rated horses.

The new sample file can be found at... http://focusratings/new-analysis-full

So, what do the new numbers mean?

Starting from the left...

1). SWP is a new metric. This shows the Strike Rate for that stall over the nominated distance.

A comment from one of the members who has been advising me on the ratings (thanks Peter) is...

5.00 Wolves - Indian Affair only 3rd @ 11/4 (second worst stall.) As predicted by you.

5.30 Wolves - Just Rubie 3rd @ 22/1 (highest %age stall)

4.30 Wolves - Top two highest percentage stalls; First @ 9/1 & Second @ Evens - Both well clear of the other two.

As I'm not really a betting person (although I'm getting there), I'm not sure how much this will help you but, a few of you have asked for this so it's worked it's way into the new ratings. You can, after all, always ignore it.

2). TR shows the Total Races (regardless of code) that I have in my database (going back to the 8th of July 2013_ for the horse in question. It should really be used in conjunction with the next metric to be of any use. Once again, if it doesn't help you, don't use it.

3). RR shows the Recent Races that I have in my database (going back to the 8th of July 2013_ for the horse in question. These are only races in the Current Code. So, a horse may have run in 10 bumpers since the 8th of July 2013 but only 2 All Weather races (assuming that today's race is an All Weather race.)

Thus, the TR would show 12 and the RR would show 2.

4). LC shows the last Code that the horse ran in. If it is different from today's code then it will be in bold. This is really to identify a horse that won (or did well) in its last race but that's pretty meaningless if the last race was a Bumper and today's race is an AW Sprint.

5). CIJ shows if there is a Change in Jockey. Some of you asked for it and I can see its value in cases where a horse has had good form when ridden by Tony McCoy but is being ridden today by Freddie Fallsoffalot.

Speed Ratings

Now, if you scroll your eyes left to the blank columns...

These are the new Speed Ratings and they are blank because I haven't finished them; but I am close to doing so.

6). # will show the Rank (in terms of speed) of the horse in that race. Thus, the fastest horse will have a rank of 1, the second fastest horse a rank of 2 and so forth.

7). ASF will show the Average Seconds per Furlong that the horse has achieved.

8). DD will show the Distance the horse lost by in its last race.

Average R4

Now, the Average R4 column (as shown by Av) has changed slightly. The horse with the highest Average R4 in the race will be highlighted in bold.

9). Diff shows the Difference in Average R4 and the horses current rating (which changes from race to race.) If the horse is running at a higher rating than its Average rating, then the Diff figure will be shown in bold.

To Do...

10). Jockey Claims - I need to work out how to show Jockey Claims. It's quite possible that I'll have to do it manually every day but, one way or another, if a Jockey can claim any weight for any reason, this will be shown as a number in brackets after the jockey's name.

Oops, I should mention that I have truncated the forenames of the jockeys and trainers to make space for all the new stuff.

10). Irish Class Figures - Now, I know that Irish races don't use the class system that UK races do but I'm going to see if I can come up with a sort of equivalent; perhaps just three classes based upon prize money.

I can't promise anything here but it might be interesting to show that a horse usually runs in £10,000 races but is running in a £2,000 race today.

Conclusion...

Some of the changes are purely cosmetic and are there to highlight relationships (such as the Diff figure being in bold if the horse is running at a higher rating than its average rating.

I shall be doing a post a day to explain each of the new things (and changes) but won't start that until the new ratings are complete.

Once again, the example that I have shown you (http://focusratings/new-analysis-full) shows all the horses in a race. Obviously, there will be a similar PDF which will only show the top three horses as this is what most of you use.

The important things to keep in mind are...

a). All races will now be shown; currently I don't show races where I can rate less than 40% of the horses in that race. I shall now (on the new format PDFs) show these races as there is no downside to doing so.

b). On the Full PDFs I shall show all horses; currently I don't show horses that aren't rated.

c). All the current formats will be retained; the numbers of the links on the morning ratings email will change but I'll work out a way of making this as painless as possible.

d). Obviously, new spreadsheets will be generated to show the new information.

To my eyes, the new format PDF looks easier to read and, on the top three rated PDF we'll now get 8 races per page which means less paper to print out instead of the current 7.

Today

Today's 6am test ratings show 24 rated races from four meetings.

Once again, time is pressing and. I need to get on.

So, I won't be doing any analysis of today's ratings.

As i mentioned yesterday, I'd like to thank all of you who have left public comments at Tipsters Review - I welcome all comments, good or bad, and believe that it is far more honest that these comments are available for all too see rather than just hidden away on this website.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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