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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Well, lots of winners yesterday,

Although the prices weren't very high.

However, yesterday you could have blindy done the forecast in every race and pretty much doubled your money!

And the same was true for the reverse forecast!

And, in you had done the reverse trifecta/tricast (depending on the race size) in every race you would have made a 50% profit on your stakes.

You know, the more I see results like these, the more I want to come up with a strategy that identifies those races where we are likely to profit form Forecasts and Trifectas.

First, though, I need to complete the Speed Ratings.

Anyway, I'm getting there, so, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 20%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 71.28 units returned to 104 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 68.54%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 21.5 units returned to 35 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 61.43%

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 28.83 units returned to 35 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, 82.37%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 20.95 units returned to 34 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, 61.62%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Lingfield (AW) 13:25:00 - The CSF paid £8.54

Gowran Park 13:40:00 - The CSF paid £55.74

Obviously, if you have done the forecast in every race yesterday you would have had £64.28 returned to £34 staked. In other words, you would have pretty much doubled your money.

Reverse Forecasts

There were 4 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Wincanton 14:30:00 - The CSF paid £17.00

Lingfield (AW) 14:35:00 - The CSF paid £14.42

Ascot 14:40:00 - The CSF paid £3.20

Ascot 15:15:00 - The CSF paid £16.06

In a similar vein, if you have done the reverse forecast in every race yesterday you would have had £114.96 returned to £68 staked. Once again, you would have pretty much doubled your money.

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Reverse Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 7 reverse tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Ascot 13:30:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £8.50

Ascot 14:05:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £17.00

Wincanton 14:30:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £113.18

Lingfield (AW) 14:35:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £5.20

Lingfield (AW) 15:10:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £8.90

Ascot 15:15:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £107.50

Wincanton 16:40:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £31.20

If you have done the reverse tricast/trifecta in every race yesterday you would have had £291.48 returned to £204.00 staked.

Winners

From the 35 rated races there were 20 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 3 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Gowran Park 13:40 Toubaloo (10) 8.00 10.5
Ascot 14:05 Ainsi Fideles (3) 7.00 8.0
Wincanton 16:40 Kings Apollo (5) 5.50 6.26

Comments...

I've decided that there is little point in my just listing every race where we got a winner or a forecast; that stuff is pretty well described above, after all.

So, I'm just going to concentrate of the few races that stand out.

1). Gowran Park 13:40 - We got the forecast in this race, the CSF paid £55.74 to a £1 stake. Now, I haven't done any analysis of this but I do remember thinking, when I first started doing the ratings, that Beginners Chases usually produced high priced winners.

Anyway, yesterday I made a note in my overflowing notebook to create a spreadsheet to take a look into these races to see if I can identify any trends.

Although I use the Builder I see the numbers better in a spreadsheet and I like being ablke to create graphs to present the data in a viewable format. The ability to produce graphs in the Builder will be introduced sometime this year.

The real question is... "How could I identify this race as a race to do a Forecast or Reverse Forecast in?"

I'm going to be number crunching for most of today but, if I can find the time, I'll try and do some analysis to see if I can come up with an answer.

2). Wincanton 14:30 - We got the reverse tricast (and the reverse forecast) in this race. The tricast paid £113.18 to a £6 stake. As above, the size of the tricast makes me wonder about what stands out to suggest that this was a good race to put my sixpence on. It was an 11 horse handicap and the top three rated all had forecast prices of 4/1 or better. In fact, just by quickly looking through the results, a strategy that would have worked yesterday would have been to do the reverse tricast/trifecta in every race where the top three horses had forecast prices of between 4.0 and 10.0 and races that were 12 runners or less.

Now, I know that this is backfitting and is only using one day's data but it might point me (or someone else) in the right direction.

There were 8 such races and they yielded 2 reverse tricasts/trifectas and 2 reverse forecasts and one actual forecast.

Thus, £251.88 would have been returned for £64 staked had you done the reverse tricast/trifecta in those 8 races.

The Forecast paid £55.74 and,

Had you done the Reverse Forecast in those 8 races, £86.22 would have been returned to your £16 stake.

Now, the above is just speculation but it does suggest that a possible strategy may squirrelled away somewhere in the numbers.

3). Ascot 15:15 - As above; we got the reverse trifecta in this race - it paid £107.50 to a £6 stake.

This race is actually more interesting as there were only 7 runners.

All the qualifying races were handicaps.

I've duly made a note to take a look at handicap races with less than 13 runners and where the top three rated horses have forecast prices between 4.0 and 10.0.

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = UK Recent Returners - where R4 Status = 1 and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 70% and where Position last time out = Winner and where Country = UK and Runners was equal to or less than 12 and the Horse\'s Confidence is greater than 110% and Horse was NOT a Distance Winner and Horse was NOT a Course and Distance Winner and Horse was a Clear Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Haydock - 17:05:00 - Teaforthree (4)

Races (over last year): 5 Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 80.00% ROI: 119.20% AV SP: 1.49

Teaforthree came fourth.

Chancers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Lingfield (AW) - 13:25:00 - Limerick Lord (4)

Races (over last year): 37 Wins: 22 Strike Rate: 59.46% ROI: 161.14% AV SP: 2.71

Limerick Lord came first at 2.5 ISP (2.64 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 19 rated races from three meetings.

There is good news on the Speed Ratings as I am getting close to the end of the process.

As you can see from yesterday'sNew Format PDF, the Average Seconds per Furlong for the All Weather races are now being displayed.

Today I hope to be able to implement the distance lost by in last race (the DD column) and then, it's one last push to actually get the horses' ASFs (Average Seconds per Furlong) put in.

And, you know, I'll be glad when it's all over; it's been a long process and I'll be glad to get back not touching the ratings and just doing a blog post every couple of days looking at strategies such as dutching or how to choose which races to do the reverse trifecta in.

Obviously, I shall be looking at finding a correlation between the Speed Ratings and the actual R4 ratings to see if I can come up with a new (and more accurate) rating (which I'll call R5) next Autumn.

But, that's six months away and I'm looking forward to having a nice long, rather quiet summer in order to recharge my batteries.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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