Morning News!

Good morning...

A very strong day yesterday with a brilliant strike rate for the top rated horse.

Although I am quite enthusiastic that the ratings should be used as just that, ratings,

You could have used them as a tipping service yesterday as, by blindly backing the top rated horse, you would have made a profit of 74.48% on your total stakes.

In fact, you could have blindly backed every top three rated horse and made a profit of about 36% on your total stakes.

However, I'm really not advising that you do that.

Anyway, the numbers are good today so, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail...

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 41.94%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 132.71 units returned to 97 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 136.81%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 54.09 units returned to 31 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 174.48%

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 27 units returned to 33 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, 81.82%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 51.62 units returned to 33 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, 156.42%

Forecasts

There were 5 forecasts yesterday.

Fairyhouse 13:35:00 - The CSF paid £6.87

Kempton 15:10:00 - The CSF paid £2:10

Newcastle 15:30:00 - The CSF paid £7:40

Lingfield (AW) 16:00:00 - The CSF paid £16.55

Kempton 16:55:00 - The CSF paid £8.31

Reverse Forecasts

There were 1 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Newcastle 13:50:00 - The CSF paid £14.10

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 1 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Kempton 15:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £2.10

Reverse Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 4 reverse tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Fairyhouse 13:05:00 - The Trifecta paid £14.10

Newcastle 13:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £45.10

Lingfield (AW) 14:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £28.30

Kempton 15:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £2.10

Winners

From the 33 rated races there were 25 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 10 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Fairyhouse	13:05	Gwencily Berbas (1)	7.50	8.4
Fairyhouse	13:35	Smokey Joe Joe (5)	5.50	6.2
Newcastle	13:50	Voyage A New York (5)	11.00	11.5
Lingfield (AW)	14:15	Baddilini (5)	21.00	30.0
Newcastle	14:20	Dark Dune (5)	8.00	8.0
Lingfield (AW)	15:25	Grendisar (2)	6.00	6.8
Chepstow	16:10	Virtuel Doudon (3)	9.00	10.11
Kempton	16:20	Shammick Boy (2)	9.00	10.33
Chepstow	16:45	Little Jimmy (7)	7.00	7.88
Lingfield (AW)	17:05	Clearing (5)	6.00	7.6

Comments...

One thing that has struck me is that all the Trifectas came from races with less than 11 runners.

So, I checked on ToteSport.com and found this (which was published last December)..

The totetrifecta is the totepool equivalent of the SP Tricast and (from 1st December) is available on all UK races with 3 or more runners. To win the bet, you must select three horses to finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the correct order.

The totetrifecta is difficult but it gives you the chance to win big money for a small stake on a single race.

Perhaps yet another strategy is lurking somewhere there.

Yesterday, there were 11 races with less than 8 runners.

Thus, a £1 reverse Trifecta on each of those would have cost a total of £66 in stakes.

As you can see, £89.60 would have been returned.

When I get time, I'm going to take a look into this; if I forget, could you give me a nag?

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet yesterday (but not a Chancer's Bet.)

Bankers Bet = Chase the Winners! - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Chase and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 70% and Runners was equal to or more than 7 and Runners was equal to or less than 15 and the Horse\'s R4 is greater than 4.0 and the Horse\'s Confidence is greater than 120% and Horse was a Favourite, Joint Favourite or a Co Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Kempton - 14:00:00 - Bivouac (1)

Races (over last year): 9 Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 44.44% ROI: 132.43% AV SP: 2.98

Bivouac came third.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 20 rated races from three meetings.

I'm sitting here watching the Speed Ratings being compiled and am still pondering about Totepool Trifectas.

If any of you know about this way of backing horses and have any ideas, please let me know.

If I can get pointed in the right direction I'm sure that I can come up with some statistics to play around with.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards